PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
USC Upstate will host Samford on 18 November 2026 in an NCAA contest that feels almost evenly matched, with the two teams holding similar win-loss records and only a slim edge for the visitors. USC Upstate has gone 1-3 in all four games this season, scoring 75.0 points per game while allowing 68.8, and sits 316th in the league; at home they are 1-1, averaging 87.0 points and conceding 63.5. Their last five games have yielded one win and four losses, including a 104-49 victory over Bob Jones at home on 11 November and a 70-78 loss to South Carolina St on 6 November. Samford, meanwhile, is 1-1 overall, with 83.0 points per game and 73.0 points allowed, positioned 207th; on the road they are 0-1, averaging 79.0 points and giving up 88.0. Their recent five games include three wins and two defeats, highlighted by a 79-88 loss to UNLV away on 7 November and a 87-58 win over Berry Vikings at home on 2 November. Pythia rates Samford the favourite with a 53% chance of victory versus USC Upstate's 47%, projecting a 76-77 score and a total of 153.3 points, with a 5% chance of overtime. The game will likely hinge on the narrow margin that separates the two sides.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 75.0 | 68.8 | 143.8 | +6.2 | 25% |
| Season at home (2) | 87.0 | 63.5 | 150.5 | +23.5 | 50% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 74.0 | 137.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.9 | 69.6 | 140.5 | +1.3 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.8 | 68.0 | 140.8 | +4.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 63.3 | 78.4 | 141.7 | -15.1 | 0% |
| vs Similar (15) | 74.0 | 77.4 | 151.4 | -3.4 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 77.2 | 63.6 | 140.9 | +13.6 | 62% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 77.3 | 78.7 | 156.0 | -1.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 76.5 | 74.0 | 150.5 | +2.5 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 79.0 | 88.0 | 167.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 82.3 | 77.7 | 160.0 | +4.6 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.0 | 80.0 | 160.0 | +0.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 67.3 | 83.0 | 150.3 | -15.7 | 17% |
| vs Similar (14) | 79.1 | 78.4 | 157.6 | +0.7 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 83.6 | 65.3 | 148.9 | +18.2 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.1 | 33.0 | 66.0 | +0.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 35.5 | 32.0 | 67.5 | +3.5 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 30.7 | 33.9 | 64.6 | -3.3 | 27% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.7 | 31.0 | 65.7 | +3.7 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 32.4 | 69.2 | +4.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 28.3 | 37.4 | 65.7 | -9.1 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 32.4 | 33.9 | 66.3 | -1.5 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 38.5 | 27.2 | 65.8 | +11.2 | 88% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.5 | 36.7 | 74.2 | +0.8 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.6 | 34.6 | 75.2 | +6.1 | 44% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 34.0 | 39.1 | 73.1 | -5.1 | 29% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.8 | 38.5 | 79.3 | +2.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.0 | 40.0 | 83.0 | +3.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 31.3 | 39.3 | 70.7 | -8.0 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 37.9 | 39.1 | 77.0 | -1.3 | 29% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 40.3 | 32.1 | 72.4 | +8.2 | 56% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Bob Jones | 104-49 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Coastal Carolina | 56-65 |
| 06/11/26 | H | South Carolina St | 70-78 |
| 03/11/26 | A | East Carolina | 70-83 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Gardner Webb | 64-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Gardner Webb | 71-61 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Radford | 59-71 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Presbyterian | 76-74 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Winthrop | 64-68 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Longwood | 75-82 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Wright State | 66-90 |
| 07/11/26 | A | UNLV | 79-88 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Berry Vikings | 87-58 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Furman | 81-86 |
| 28/02/26 | H | NC Greensboro | 87-78 |
| 27/02/26 | H | VMI | 80-61 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Mercer | 86-89 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Citadel | 78-75 |
| 14/02/26 | A | East Tennessee St | 82-72 OT |
| 12/02/26 | H | Wofford | 97-80 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLW | 25% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.0 | 87.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 68.8 | 63.5 | 74.0 |
| Point differential | +6.2 | +23.5 | -11.0 |
| Avg total | 143.8 | 150.5 | 137.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.3 | 76.5 | 79.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.7 | 74.0 | 88.0 |
| Point differential | -1.3 | +2.5 | -9.0 |
| Avg total | 156.0 | 150.5 | 167.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  High Point | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 |
| 2 |  Longwood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 94.2 | 67.2 | +27.0 |
| 3 |  UNC Asheville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 81.8 | -0.2 |
| 4 |  Charleston Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 76.3 | -2.7 |
| 5 |  Gardner Webb | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.3 | 83.3 | -22.0 |
| 6 | USC Upstate | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75.0 | 68.8 | +6.2 |
| 7 |  Winthrop | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 89.0 | 94.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 |  Radford | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 59.7 | 76.7 | -17.0 |
| 9 |  Presbyterian | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 71.7 | 90.7 | -19.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Furman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 94.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Citadel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.3 | 61.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 |  Western Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 74.3 | +22.7 |
| 4 |  VMI | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.8 | 70.4 | +7.4 |
| 5 |  NC Greensboro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.8 | +10.2 |
| 6 |  Chattanooga Mocs | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.2 | 79.5 | +4.8 |
| 7 |  Wofford | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 78.2 | +1.8 |
| 8 |  Mercer | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 78.2 | 80.6 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Samford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 78.7 | -1.3 |
| 10 |  East Tennessee St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.3 | 68.3 | -3.0 |
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