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USC vs Tarleton Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 20 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 04:00
Projected 87-68
Projected total 155.4
Scheduled
Position#63
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game71.3
USC
USA
Vs
94%
■ USC 94%■ TARL 6%
Pythia win probability
Tarleton
USA
Position#120
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game70.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

USC hosts Tarleton on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming USC the clear favourite at 94% versus 6% for Tarleton, a reflection of USC's undefeated 3-0 season record and an average of 88.3 points scored against 71.3 allowed, placing them 63rd in the league, while Tarleton sits 120th with a 3-1 record and 81.2 points for and 70.5 against. At home USC has a 1-0 record, averaging 95.0 points and conceding 63.0, and their last five games include wins over California 77-65, Wichita State 93-86, and Wisc. Milwaukee 95-63, showing a recent 3-2 run. Tarleton's road record is 0-1, with a 90.0 points scored and 96.0 allowed in that lone outing, and their last five games also tally 3-2, featuring victories over Alcorn State 73-69 and Texas Dallas 76-57 but a loss to San Diego Toreros 90-96. The model projects a 87-68 score for USC, a total of 155.4 points, and a 1% chance of overtime. The home team is expected to cover the spread, and the over is unlikely. USC's recent dominant performances suggest they will keep the margin wide.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

USC win
94.3%fair 1.06
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Tarleton win
5.7%fair 17.46
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

USCUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois
#35
L
65-101
65
101
-36
H19/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
70-71
70
71
-1
H21/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A25/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
67-82
67
82
-15
H28/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
72-91
72
91
-19
A05/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
68-89
68
89
-21
H08/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
79-83 OT
79
83
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
W
95-63
95
63
+32
H03/11
NCAA
Wichita State
#102
W
93-86
93
86
+7
A09/11
NCAA
California
#85
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-54
33-47
32-35
38-36
29-38
33-43
36-31
31-51
43-40
29-51
30-45
38-44
40-33
31-38
46-29
49-34
43-45
50-41
39-30
38-35
156.0Avg total
74.8Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)88.371.3159.7+17.0100%
Season at home (1)95.063.0158.0+32.0100%
Season away (2)85.075.5160.5+9.5100%
Last 10 (10)74.881.2156.0-6.430%
Last 5 (5)82.477.2159.6+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)69.582.2151.8-12.825%
vs Similar (10)76.677.1153.7-0.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)88.570.4158.9+18.1100%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TarletonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
W
78-74
78
74
+4
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A27/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A01/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
60-65
60
65
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Cameron
#399
W
86-60
86
60
+26
H03/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A07/11
NCAA
Texas Dallas
#380
W
76-57
76
57
+19
H11/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-36
34-38
32-32
40-48
28-35
44-44
29-40
38-42
28-29
32-36
25-39
53-45
45-34
41-26
46-32
36-50
37-22
39-35
29-33
44-36
149.8Avg total
75.2Scored
74.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)81.270.5151.8+10.875%
Season at home (3)78.362.0140.3+16.3100%
Season away (1)90.096.0186.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)75.274.6149.8+0.640%
Last 5 (5)80.673.2153.8+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)67.582.2149.8-14.80%
vs Similar (15)70.773.7144.4-3.127%
vs Weaker (7)86.168.6154.7+17.686%
This opponent (USC) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147
Over 147
70.2%
Under 147
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
58.4%
Under 152
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
45.8%
Under 157
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

USC total 81.5
Over 81.5
70.9%
Under 81.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
USC total 85.5
Over 85.5
55.8%
Under 85.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
USC total 89.5
Over 89.5
39.7%
Under 89.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 62
Over 62
74.8%
Under 62
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 66
Over 66
59.9%
Under 66
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarleton total 70
Over 70
43.4%
Under 70
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread USC -3
USC -3
91.9%
TARL +3
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
USC
No market prices yet.
TARL
No market prices yet.
Spread USC 0
USC 0
94.3%
TARL 0
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
USC
No market prices yet.
TARL
No market prices yet.
Spread USC +3
USC +3
96.3%
TARL -3
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
USC
No market prices yet.
TARL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.0-1.01st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: +0.1+0.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.0-1.01st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: +0.1+0.1
USCTarleton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
USCLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois
#35
L
32-54
32
54
-22
H19/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H21/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A25/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A05/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H08/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A11/03
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H03/11
NCAA
Wichita State
#102
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A09/11
NCAA
California
#85
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A12/11
NCAA
75.0Avg total
37.0Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.736.272.8+0.550%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.134.671.7+2.560%-
Last 30 away (15)36.237.773.9-1.540%-
Last 10 (10)37.038.075.0-1.050%-
Last 5 (5)39.636.476.0+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)32.539.071.5-6.533%-
vs Similar (10)38.435.273.6+3.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)40.833.173.9+7.675%-
This opponent (Tarleton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TarletonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A27/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A01/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Cameron
#399
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H03/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
W
46-32
46
32
+14
A07/11
NCAA
Texas Dallas
#380
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H11/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H14/11
NCAA
67.5Avg total
34.3Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.333.268.4+2.147%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.032.269.2+4.850%-
Last 30 away (14)33.334.267.5-0.943%-
Last 10 (10)34.333.267.5+1.140%-
Last 5 (5)36.432.068.4+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)32.236.068.2-3.80%-
vs Similar (15)31.231.863.0-0.647%-
vs Weaker (7)43.037.080.0+6.057%-
This opponent (USC) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
USC wins
0
Tarleton wins
No previous meetings.
USClast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ACalifornia77-65
09/11/26AWichita State93-86
03/11/26HWisc. Milwaukee95-63
11/03/26AWashington79-83 OT
08/03/26HUCLA68-89
05/03/26AWashington72-91
28/02/26HNebraska67-82
25/02/26AUCLA62-81
21/02/26HOregon70-71
19/02/26HIllinois65-101
Tarletonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HAlcorn State73-69
11/11/26HTexas Dallas76-57
07/11/26ASan Diego Toreros90-96 OT
03/11/26HCameron86-60
12/03/26AAbilene Christian78-84
06/03/26HUT Arlington60-65
01/03/26ACalifornia Baptist67-82
27/02/26AUtah Valley State72-79
21/02/26HUtah Tech72-80
20/02/26HSouthern Utah78-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

USC
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game88.395.085.0
Allowed / game71.363.075.5
Point differential+17.0+32.0+9.5
Avg total159.7158.0160.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tarleton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game81.278.390.0
Allowed / game70.562.096.0
Point differential+10.8+16.3-6.0
Avg total151.8140.3186.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %25%0%100%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Valley State220100%92.578.0+14.5
2 UT Arlington54180%88.270.8+17.4
3 Tarleton43175%81.270.5+10.8
4 Southern Utah53260%96.869.6+27.2
5 Abilene Christian31233%71.083.7-12.7
6 Utah Tech41325%80.587.2-6.8
7 California Baptist41325%66.877.0-10.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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