UT Arlington hosts UTRGV in an NCAA contest on 14 November 2026, with the model designating the home side as the clear favourite, reflected in a 91% win probability and a projected 78-63 score that leans heavily on their 3-1 season record, 89.0 points per game and 69.2 allowed, and a league position of 100; the visitors, 2-1 with 71.3 points per game and 62.0 allowed, sit at 164. UT Arlington's single home game shows a 1-0 record, 89.0 points scored and 56.0 allowed, while UTRGV's five-game stretch is 3-2, mirroring the home team's recent 3-2 record. The last five games for each side include the home team's 116-65 win over Bethesda, 62-71 loss to Hawaii and 89-85 win over Portland, and UTRGV's 65-72 loss to Texas State, 68-63 win over Prairie View A&M and 81-51 win over Texas A&M-Kingsville. Historically, UT Arlington has won all five meetings, most recently 58-50 on 11 December 2025. Pythia projects a 91% chance of a home win, 83% probability the home team covers the -5.0 spread, a 56% chance of the over on the 139.5 total, and a 2% likelihood of overtime, with a projected total of 141.9 points. The game will be decided by the home team's dominant offensive output.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UT Arlington winWon
90.5%fair 1.10
Best odds1.51
Implied64.4%
Edge+26.2pp
UTRGV winLost
9.5%fair 10.55
Best odds2.71
Implied35.6%
Edge-26.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UT Arlington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 134.5Actual: Over 134.5
Over 134.5
67.4%
@ 1.44+1.6pp
Under 134.5
32.6%
@ 2.85-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.55
Over/Under 139.5 · main lineActual: Over 139.5
Over 139.5
55.6%
@ 1.91+5.6pp
Under 139.5
44.4%
@ 2.05-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
43.3%
@ 2.35+3.7pp
Under 144.5
56.7%
@ 1.54-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
UT Arlington total 67.5Actual: UT Arlington over 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 3.00
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.75
UT Arlington total 72 · main lineActual: UT Arlington over 72
Over 72
75.3%
@ 1.85+25.3pp
Under 72
24.7%
@ 1.85-25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
UT Arlington total 76Actual: UT Arlington over 76
Over 76
60.4%
Under 76
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTRGV total 64Actual: UTRGV over 64
Over 64
47.0%
Under 64
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTRGV total 68 · main lineActual: UTRGV over 68
Over 68
31.3%
@ 1.87-18.7pp
Under 68
68.7%
@ 1.85+18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UTRGV total 72Actual: UTRGV over 72
Over 72
18.7%
Under 72
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UT Arlington -8Push
UT A -8
74.5%
@ 2.62+39.0pp
UTRG +8
25.5%
@ 1.44-39.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UT A
Bet365
2.62
UTRG
Bet365
1.44
Spread UT Arlington -5 · main lineActual: UT Arlington -5
UT A -5
82.7%
@ 2.05+33.3pp
UTRG +5
17.3%
@ 1.90-33.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UT A
Bet365
2.05
SBO
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.89
UTRG
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.68
Spread UT Arlington -2Actual: UT Arlington -2
UT A -2
89.1%
@ 1.64+30.5pp
UTRG +2
10.9%
@ 2.30-30.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UT A
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
UTRG
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.12
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UT ArlingtonUTRGV
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UT ArlingtonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Valley State
#33
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H21/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
27-40
27
40
-13
A27/02
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
25-33
25
33
-8
A08/03
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
W
29-24
29
24
+5
H13/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A14/03
NCAA
North Texas-Dallas
#426
W
42-22
42
22
+20
H03/11
NCAA
Portland
#265
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A07/11
NCAA
Hawaii
#101
D
27-27
27
27
+0
A09/11
NCAA
Bethesda
#346
W
57-32
57
32
+25
A10/11
NCAA
65.2Avg total
34.3Scored
30.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 66.5
Last 30 (30)
31.5
31.3
62.7
+0.2
50%
27%
Last 30 at home (12)
31.8
28.2
60.0
+3.7
58%
8%
Last 30 away (18)
31.2
33.3
64.6
-2.1
44%
39%
Last 10 (10)
34.3
30.9
65.2
+3.4
60%
30%
Last 5 (5)
40.2
31.4
71.6
+8.8
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
29.2
36.2
65.4
-7.0
20%
40%
vs Similar (14)
27.8
30.4
58.1
-2.6
43%
14%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)
36.7
31.0
67.7
+5.7
70%
40%
This opponent (UTRGV) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (UT Arlington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UTRGV win
UT A win
no forecast
@ 1.65
UTRG win
no forecast
@ 2.27
2nd half Spread UT Arlington -1.5 · main lineActual: UTRGV +1.5
UT A -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
UTRG +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UT Arlington (regulation)
UT A
no forecast
@ 1.70
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
UTRG
no forecast
@ 2.32
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UT Arlington -8
74.5%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+39.0pp
Push
UT Arlington -9
71.4%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+38.9pp
Lost
UT Arlington -7
77.4%
2.37
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.34
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
UT Arlington -8.5
72.3%
2.58
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+36.4pp
Lost
UT Arlington -7.5
75.2%
2.38
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.25
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Won
UT Arlington -6
80.1%
2.18
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.14
-
-
-
+35.4pp
Won
UT Arlington -6.5
78.0%
2.21
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.10
-
-
+35.3pp
Won
UT Arlington -5.5
80.7%
2.05
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.00
-
-
+33.7pp
Won
UT Arlington -5
82.7%
1.96
Bet365
2.05
SBO
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
+33.3pp
Won
UT Arlington -4.5
83.1%
1.88
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
+31.3pp
Won
UT Arlington -4
85.1%
1.84
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
+30.9pp
Won
UT Arlington (regulation)
89.2%
1.54
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.53
Marathon Bet
1.52
-
-
+30.6pp
Won
UT Arlington -2
89.1%
1.63
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
-
-
-
+30.5pp
Won
UT Arlington -2.5
87.2%
1.67
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.62
-
-
+30.5pp
Won
UT Arlington -1.5
89.3%
1.56
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+30.2pp
Won
UT Arlington -1
90.4%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+30.2pp
Won
UT Arlington -3.5
85.4%
1.79
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.75
+29.1pp
Won
UT Arlington -3
86.9%
1.71
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.65
-
-
+28.9pp
Won
UT Arlington +1
91.4%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Won
UT Arlington over 71.5
76.1%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.89
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.72
-
+26.3pp
Won
UT Arlington win
90.5%
1.49
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.49
+26.2pp
Won
UT Arlington over 72.5
72.8%
1.88
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
+26.0pp
Won
UT Arlington +2
92.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
UT Arlington +1.5
91.5%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
UT Arlington over 72
75.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
UT Arlington +2.5
92.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
UT Arlington +3
93.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
UT Arlington +3.5
93.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
UT Arlington over 70.5
79.1%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
UTRGV under 69
72.2%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
UT Arlington +4
94.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
UT Arlington +4.5
94.7%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
UT Arlington over 73
71.9%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
UT Arlington over 69.5
81.9%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
UT Arlington over 68.5
84.4%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
UTRGV under 69.5
73.1%
1.74
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.62
-
+19.1pp
Lost
UTRGV under 71.5
79.1%
1.48
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
UTRGV under 70.5
76.2%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
UTRGV under 74.5
86.4%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Lost
UTRGV under 72.5
81.8%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Lost
UTRGV under 73.5
84.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
UTRGV under 75.5
88.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Lost
UTRGV under 77.5
91.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
UTRGV under 78.5
92.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
UTRGV under 79.5
94.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.9%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
UT Arlington under 89.5
86.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
UTRGV over 51.5
88.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
UTRGV over 52.5
85.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
UTRGV over 53.5
83.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
UT Arlington under 87.5
81.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
UTRGV over 54.5
81.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
UTRGV over 55.5
78.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
UT Arlington under 85.5
76.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
UTRGV over 56.5
75.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
UTRGV over 57.5
71.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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