Utah Jazz will host the San Antonio Spurs on 15 November 2026 in the NBA, and the Pythia model designates the Spurs as the clear favourite, rating them 84% to win largely because of their 11-2 record, 119.5 points per game and 106.2 allowed per game, placing them first in the league, while the Jazz sit 29th with a 1-12 record, 107.5 points per game and 118.6 allowed per game. The Jazz have gone 1-6 at home, scoring 109.4 and allowing 118.3, and have lost their last five games, including defeats to Houston 118-125, Orlando 108-123 and Miami 109-115. The Spurs have remained unbeaten on the road, 6-0, averaging 122.3 points and 107.3 allowed, and have won every one of their last five games, with recent victories over Golden State 123-85, Chicago 124-119 and Phoenix 122-96. In their 10 prior meetings the Spurs have won eight times, most recently defeating the Jazz 119-97 on 2 November 2026. Pythia projects a 107-120 score, a total of 227.2, a 17-point home line with a 62% chance the Jazz cover, and a 223-point total with a 59% over probability, while the chance of overtime sits at 4%. The Spurs' road dominance suggests they will likely pull away again.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Utah Jazz win
16.3%fair 6.13
Best odds10.00
Implied9.7%
Edge+6.6pp
San Antonio Spurs win
83.7%fair 1.19
Best odds1.07
Implied90.3%
Edge-6.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 227 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 225-229 (11%). The market's main line is 224.5.
Over/Under 219.5
Over 219.5
65.8%
@ 1.63+7.0pp
Under 219.5
34.2%
@ 2.30-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.63
Betano
1.60
WilliamHill
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathon Be
1.55
Under
WilliamHill
2.30
Betfair
2.28
BetVictor
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathon Be
2.21
Over/Under 224.5 · main line
Over 224.5
55.2%
@ 2.01+4.8pp
Under 224.5
44.8%
@ 1.95-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.01
Betano
2.00
Betfair
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 229.5
Over 229.5
44.3%
@ 2.60+6.3pp
Under 229.5
55.7%
@ 1.55-6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
WilliamHill
2.50
Betfair
2.46
Betano
2.40
Under
Betfair
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Utah Jazz total 99.5
Over 99.5
73.6%
@ 1.47+11.9pp
Under 99.5
26.4%
@ 2.37-11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.37
Utah Jazz total 103.5 · main line
Over 103.5
61.1%
@ 1.91+9.9pp
Under 103.5
38.9%
@ 1.97-9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Utah Jazz total 107.5
Over 107.5
47.4%
@ 2.50+11.2pp
Under 107.5
52.6%
@ 1.42-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42
San Antonio Spurs total 117
Over 117
61.6%
Under 117
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Antonio Spurs total 121 · main line
Over 121
47.1%
@ 1.93-2.1pp
Under 121
52.9%
@ 1.87+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
San Antonio Spurs total 125
Over 125
33.0%
Under 125
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Utah Jazz's side (positive = Utah Jazz win). Pythia's expected margin is -13.1; Utah Jazz win by 1+ in 14% of simulations.
Spread Utah Jazz +14
UTA +14
52.7%
@ 2.30+12.0pp
SAS -14
47.3%
@ 1.58-12.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UTA
1xBet
2.30
Marathon Be
2.27
Bet365
2.22
SAS
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Marathon Be
1.56
Spread Utah Jazz +17 · main line
UTA +17
62.0%
@ 1.93+11.6pp
SAS -17
38.0%
@ 1.96-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UTA
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
SAS
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.89
Bet365
1.83
Spread Utah Jazz +20
UTA +20
70.4%
@ 1.62+11.4pp
SAS -20
29.6%
@ 2.23-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UTA
Bet365
1.62
Marathon Be
1.55
1xBet
1.55
SAS
Marathon Be
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.15
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Utah JazzSan Antonio Spurs
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Utah JazzLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
L
21-30
21
30
-9
H27/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
18-27
18
27
-9
H31/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
16-27
16
27
-11
A03/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
D
24-24
24
24
+0
A05/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A07/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
25-28
25
28
-3
A09/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
L
25-29
25
29
-4
H11/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H12/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
D
27-27
27
27
+0
A14/11
NBA
51.9Avg total
25.0Scored
26.9Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 57.5
Last 30 (30)
28.2
30.2
58.4
-2.0
40%
50%
Last 30 at home (15)
29.9
29.4
59.3
+0.5
47%
53%
Last 30 away (15)
26.5
30.9
57.5
-4.4
33%
47%
Last 10 (10)
25.0
26.9
51.9
-1.9
30%
10%
Last 5 (5)
27.8
27.8
55.6
+0.0
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)
28.1
31.3
59.4
-3.3
30%
52%
vs Similar (7)
28.6
26.3
54.9
+2.3
71%
43%
vs Weaker
no games
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread Utah Jazz +7 · main line
UTA +7
51.5%
@ 1.89+2.0pp
SAS -7
48.5%
@ 1.85-2.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 108 · main line
Over
64.1%
@ 1.87+14.1pp
Under
35.9%
@ 1.87-14.1pp
Utah Jazz 2nd half total 50.5 · main line
Over
61.7%
@ 1.89+12.2pp
Under
38.3%
@ 1.85-12.2pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
UTA
25.8%
@ 3.90+0.8pp
Draw
2.9%
@ 23.00-1.6pp
SAS
71.3%
@ 1.30+0.8pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
49.9
26.0
52.1%
54.0%
52.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
37.5
12.1
32.3%
35.1%
36.3
🏀Free throws
24.7
19.4
78.5%
77.3%
19.4
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
55.8
29.6
53.0%
54.0%
59.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
37.5
12.0
32.0%
35.1%
36.0
🏀Free throws
24.6
19.6
79.7%
77.3%
19.6
They take 93.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Utah Jazztheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Utah Jazz: 118.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws27.7 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
49.9
25.4
50.9%
54.0%
50.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
37.1
13.2
35.6%
35.1%
39.6
🏀Free throws
33.4
27.7
82.9%
77.3%
27.7
Their opponents take 87.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
55.3
26.1
47.2%
54.0%
52.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
33.5
12.4
37.0%
35.1%
37.2
🏀Free throws
21.7
17.6
81.1%
77.3%
17.6
Their opponents take 88.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
55.0
29.6
53.9%
54.0%
59.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
35.3
11.7
33.1%
35.1%
35.1
🏀Free throws
25.0
19.0
75.9%
77.3%
19.0
They take 90.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
52.0
27.8
53.4%
54.0%
55.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
36.8
12.7
34.5%
35.1%
38.1
🏀Free throws
25.9
20.7
79.9%
77.3%
20.7
They take 88.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Utah Jazztheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Utah Jazz: 125.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.3 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
53.0
30.7
57.9%
54.0%
61.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.4
14.1
36.7%
35.1%
42.3
🏀Free throws
27.5
22.0
80.2%
77.3%
22.0
Their opponents take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
54.8
25.6
46.7%
54.0%
51.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
34.8
12.2
35.1%
35.1%
36.6
🏀Free throws
23.1
18.3
79.4%
77.3%
18.3
Their opponents take 89.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Utah Jazz
LLLLLLLLLL
San Antonio Spurs
WWWWWWWWWW
#29
League position
#1
-10.1
Net rating
+7.5
104.7
Offensive rating
110.7
114.8
Defensive rating
103.2
50.5%
Effective FG%
51.0%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
15.7%
Turnover %
11.5%
26.2%
Off. rebound %
27.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.26
32.3%
3-point %
32.0%
63.0%
Assist %
63.0%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
100%
Profile
■ Utah Jazz■ San Antonio Spurs
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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🔒
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