Utah State faces UC San Diego on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Aggies the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win because of their 3-0 record, 100.7 points per game and 66.7 allowed per game, while San Diego is 2-0 with 90.5 points per game and 70.0 allowed per game; Utah State is 10th in the league and San Diego 60th, a difference that drives the probability. Utah State has gone 3-0 at home, scoring 100.7 and allowing 66.7, with a 4-1 record in their last five games and recent wins over Utah Tech 118-86, Nebraska O. 90-56 and Idaho State 94-58, all at home; San Diego has a 4-1 record in their last five games, with wins over Fresno State 81-65, Whittier 100-75 and a loss to CS Northridge 70-80 away. The teams have met once before, with UC San Diego winning 75-73 on 17 December 2024. Pythia projects a 86-66 score, 152.4 total points, a home line of -13.0 with a 73% chance the home team covers, an over line of 154.5 with a 45% chance of the over, and a 1% chance of overtime. The Aggies' recent dominance and the model's high win probability suggest a decisive victory, with Utah State's offense poised to outpace San Diego's defence.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Utah State winWon
95.3%fair 1.05
Best odds1.11
Implied87.3%
Edge+8.0pp
UC San Diego winLost
4.7%fair 21.28
Best odds7.58
Implied12.7%
Edge-8.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Utah State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154Actual: Over 154
Over 154
45.8%
@ 1.81-11.1pp
Under 154
54.2%
@ 2.50+11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.20
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 159 · main lineActual: Over 159
Over 159
33.6%
@ 1.94-16.1pp
Under 159
66.4%
@ 1.89+16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 164Actual: Over 164
Over 164
23.0%
@ 2.60-12.8pp
Under 164
77.0%
@ 1.45+12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Utah State total 80Actual: Utah State over 80
Over 80
73.8%
Under 80
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah State total 84 · main lineActual: Utah State over 84
Over 84
58.5%
@ 1.85+8.5pp
Under 84
41.5%
@ 1.85-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Utah State total 88Actual: Utah State over 88
Over 88
41.8%
Under 88
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC San Diego total 67Actual: UC San Diego over 67
Over 67
47.0%
Under 67
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC San Diego total 71 · main lineActual: UC San Diego over 71
Over 71
31.1%
@ 1.85-19.1pp
Under 71
68.9%
@ 1.87+19.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UC San Diego total 75Actual: UC San Diego over 75
Over 75
18.4%
Under 75
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Utah State -16Actual: Utah State -16
UTAH -16
63.2%
@ 2.50+25.7pp
UC S +16
36.8%
@ 1.50-25.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Bet365
2.50
UC S
Bet365
1.50
Spread Utah State -13 · main lineActual: Utah State -13
UTAH -13
72.9%
@ 1.94+23.6pp
UC S +13
27.1%
@ 1.89-23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
UC S
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Spread Utah State -10Actual: Utah State -10
UTAH -10
81.1%
@ 1.57+22.2pp
UC S +10
18.9%
@ 2.25-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Bet365
1.57
UC S
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Utah StateUC San Diego
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UC San Diego) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UC San DiegoLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Riverside
#334
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H15/02
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A22/02
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H27/02
NCAA
Cal Poly
#266
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H01/03
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A06/03
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A08/03
NCAA
Cal Poly
#266
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H12/03
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A13/03
NCAA
Whittier
#397
W
60-31
60
31
+29
H03/11
NCAA
Fresno State
#143
W
49-29
49
29
+20
H08/11
NCAA
79.3Avg total
40.8Scored
38.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 80.5
Last 30 (30)
40.3
38.2
78.5
+2.1
53%
40%
Last 30 at home (17)
42.1
37.9
80.1
+4.2
59%
47%
Last 30 away (13)
37.9
38.5
76.4
-0.5
46%
31%
Last 10 (10)
40.8
38.5
79.3
+2.3
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
44.4
35.2
79.6
+9.2
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀
no games
vs Similar (15)
38.5
37.8
76.3
+0.7
47%
33%
vs Weaker (14)
40.8
39.1
79.9
+1.7
57%
43%
This opponent (Utah State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UC San Diego win
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 1.33
UC S win
no forecast
@ 3.35
2nd half Spread Utah State -5.5 · main lineActual: UC San Diego +5.5
UTAH -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
UC S +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Utah State 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Utah State over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
UC San Diego 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: UC San Diego over 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread Utah State -6.5Actual: UC San Diego +6.5
UTAH -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
UC S +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 82.5Actual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Utah State (regulation)
UTAH
no forecast
@ 1.37
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
UC S
no forecast
@ 3.35
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UC San Diego under 73.5
76.5%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
UC San Diego under 72.5
73.3%
1.91
Pinnacle
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
+25.3pp
Lost
UC San Diego under 73
75.7%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Utah State -13.5
70.8%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.91
+23.8pp
Won
Utah State -13
72.9%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
SBO
1.81
-
+23.6pp
Won
UC San Diego under 72
72.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Utah State -10
81.1%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Utah State -12.5
73.7%
1.82
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.80
+21.8pp
Won
Utah State -12
75.9%
1.77
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.74
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Utah State -9
83.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Utah State -9.5
81.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Utah State -11
78.6%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.64
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Utah State -11.5
76.5%
1.70
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.68
-
+20.0pp
Won
Utah State -8.5
83.8%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
UC San Diego under 75.5
82.1%
1.49
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Utah State -8
85.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Utah State -10.5
79.1%
1.60
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Utah State -7.5
85.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
UC San Diego under 74.5
79.4%
1.55
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Utah State -7
87.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
UC San Diego under 76.5
84.5%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Utah State -6.5
87.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Utah State -6
89.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Utah State -5.5
89.4%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
UC San Diego under 77.5
86.7%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+16.2pp
Lost
Utah State -5
90.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
UC San Diego under 78.5
88.7%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Lost
Utah State -4.5
91.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Under 161
70.9%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
UC San Diego under 79.5
90.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
Under 162
73.0%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Under 161.5
71.5%
1.61
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Utah State (regulation)
94.5%
1.12
Betano
1.12
Marathon Bet
1.11
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Under 162.5
73.6%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
Under 163.5
75.5%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Under 164.5
77.4%
1.43
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Lost
Under 164
77.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Under 165
78.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Under 165.5
79.2%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Under 163
75.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
UC San Diego under 80.5
91.9%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Utah State -3.5
92.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 166
80.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Under 166.5
81.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Under 168.5
84.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Utah State win
95.3%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
+8.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
82.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Utah State +1.5
95.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Under 173.5
90.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Utah State +6.5
98.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 178.5
94.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Utah State over 78.5
77.8%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
89.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 177.5
93.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Under 171.5
88.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Utah State over 69.5
95.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Utah State over 71.5
92.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Utah State over 70.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
93.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Utah State over 73.5
89.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Utah State over 74.5
87.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Utah State over 72.5
91.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Utah State over 75.5
85.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Utah State over 79.5
74.7%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Utah State under 98.5
89.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
Utah State over 80.5
71.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Utah State over 76.5
83.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Utah State under 96.5
85.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Utah State under 95.5
83.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
Utah State under 92.5
74.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
Utah State under 94.5
80.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
Utah State over 77.5
80.7%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Utah State under 91.5
71.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
Over 132.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Over 133.5
87.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
UC San Diego over 54.5
88.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
83.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
UC San Diego over 55.5
86.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Over 137.5
82.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
UC San Diego over 56.5
83.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Over 138.5
80.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
UC San Diego over 57.5
81.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Over 141.5
75.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Over 142.5
72.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
UC San Diego over 58.5
78.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Over 143.5
70.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
UC San Diego over 59.5
75.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.8pp
Won
UC San Diego over 60.5
71.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-16.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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