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Valparaiso vs Samford Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 19 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 61-79
27-35 34-44
Position#355
Record4-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game67.3
Allowed / game69.4
vs
Samford 🏆
USA
Position#12
Record9-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game91.5
Allowed / game77.2
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Samford winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IUPUI
#360
L
56-66
56
66
-10
H11/11
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#167
W
64-59
64
59
+5
H15/11
NCAA
Illinois
#27
L
64-87
64
87
-23
A18/11
NCAA
Western Illinois
#92
W
73-66
73
66
+7
H22/11
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#166
W
71-59
71
59
+12
H25/11
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
65-83
65
83
-18
H30/11
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
68-77
68
77
-9
A02/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A07/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
L
50-71
50
71
-21
A09/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#286
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H16/12
NCAA
1H
2H
25-21
31-45
26-31
38-28
45-38
19-49
34-27
39-39
31-24
40-35
36-37
29-46
34-43
34-34
22-37
45-34
23-37
27-34
32-33
30-30
134.2Avg total
64.0Scored
70.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)67.369.4136.6-2.136%
Season at home (7)70.165.3135.4+4.957%
Season away (4)62.276.5138.8-14.20%
Last 10 (10)64.070.2134.2-6.230%
Last 5 (5)62.473.0135.4-10.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)64.773.3138.1-8.615%
vs Similar (6)71.270.3141.5+0.850%
vs Weaker (4)78.266.2144.5+12.075%
This opponent (Samford) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
VCU Rams
#96
L
65-75
65
75
-10
A11/11
NCAA
Mississippi Coll.
#589
W
96-52
96
52
+44
H15/11
NCAA
South Carolina St
#266
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H18/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#281
W
99-67
99
67
+32
H23/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#91
W
79-71
79
71
+8
H24/11
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#356
W
101-83
101
83
+18
H25/11
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#147
W
88-65
88
65
+23
H01/12
NCAA
La Grange
#612
W
128-82
128
82
+46
H03/12
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#310
W
118-91
118
91
+27
H12/12
NCAA
Belmont
#128
W
99-93
99
93
+6
H16/12
NCAA
1H
2H
34-31
31-44
52-23
44-29
48-32
41-40
41-27
58-40
33-30
46-41
58-33
43-50
42-26
46-39
61-29
67-53
64-45
54-46
44-36
55-57
171.3Avg total
96.2Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)91.577.2168.7+14.482%
Season at home (9)99.775.1174.8+24.6100%
Season away (2)55.086.5141.5-31.50%
Last 10 (10)96.275.1171.3+21.190%
Last 5 (5)106.882.8189.6+24.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)75.279.2154.4-4.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)84.671.7156.3+12.889%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-21-10+0+10+211st half1st half: -2.0-2.01st half: +16.5+16.52nd half2nd half: -4.2-4.22nd half: +4.6+4.6
-21-10+0+10+211st half1st half: -2.0-2.01st half: +16.5+16.52nd half2nd half: -4.2-4.22nd half: +4.6+4.6
ValparaisoSamford
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IUPUI
#360
W
25-21
25
21
+4
H11/11
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#167
L
26-31
26
31
-5
H15/11
NCAA
Illinois
#27
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A18/11
NCAA
Western Illinois
#92
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H22/11
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#166
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H25/11
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H30/11
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A02/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
L
22-37
22
37
-15
A07/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#161
L
23-37
23
37
-14
A09/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#286
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H16/12
NCAA
63.6Avg total
30.8Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.634.066.7-1.443%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.931.965.8+2.150%-
Last 30 away (14)31.136.567.6-5.436%-
Last 10 (10)30.832.863.6-2.040%-
Last 5 (5)29.437.466.8-8.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)30.635.766.2-5.230%-
vs Similar (6)34.034.568.5-0.550%-
vs Weaker (4)41.025.066.0+16.0100%-
This opponent (Samford) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
VCU Rams
#96
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A11/11
NCAA
Mississippi Coll.
#589
W
52-23
52
23
+29
H15/11
NCAA
South Carolina St
#266
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H18/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#281
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H23/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#91
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H24/11
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#356
W
58-33
58
33
+25
H25/11
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#147
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H01/12
NCAA
La Grange
#612
W
61-29
61
29
+32
H03/12
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#310
W
64-45
64
45
+19
H12/12
NCAA
Belmont
#128
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H16/12
NCAA
78.9Avg total
47.7Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.533.772.2+4.870%-
Last 30 at home (19)42.033.175.1+8.979%-
Last 30 away (11)32.434.867.2-2.555%-
Last 10 (10)47.731.278.9+16.5100%-
Last 5 (5)53.833.887.6+20.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)32.338.170.4-5.830%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)39.932.172.0+7.889%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Valparaiso wins
1
Samford wins
DateGameScore
23/11/22Samford v Valparaiso79-49
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/23HChicago State62-63
09/12/23AVirginia Tech50-71
07/12/23ACentral Michigan67-71
02/12/23ABelmont68-77
30/11/23HDrake65-83
25/11/23HSouthern Univ.71-59
22/11/23HWestern Illinois73-66
18/11/23AIllinois64-87
15/11/23HWisc. Green Bay64-59
11/11/23HIUPUI56-66
Samfordlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/23HBelmont99-93
12/12/23HAlabama A&M Bulldogs118-91
03/12/23HLa Grange128-82
01/12/23HLouisiana Lafayette88-65
25/11/23HN. Carolina A&T101-83
24/11/23HMerrimack Warriors79-71
23/11/23HAlabama State99-67
18/11/23HSouth Carolina St89-72
15/11/23HMississippi Coll.96-52
11/11/23AVCU Rams65-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL36%
HomeWWWLL57%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %36%57%0%
Points / game67.370.162.2
Allowed / game69.465.376.5
Point differential-2.1+4.9-14.2
Avg total136.6135.4138.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Samford
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW82%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1192
Win %82%100%0%
Points / game91.599.755.0
Allowed / game77.275.186.5
Point differential+14.4+24.6-31.5
Avg total168.7174.8141.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%78%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State1110191%88.071.0+17.0
2 Drake1110191%77.566.9+10.6
3 Evansville119282%82.572.3+10.3
4 Belmont128467%81.779.9+1.8
5 Illinois (Chi.)117464%73.462.5+10.8
6 Illinois State117464%67.065.5+1.5
7 Southern Illinois106460%76.266.2+10.0
8 Bradley116555%71.871.1+0.7
9 Northern Iowa125742%77.974.7+3.2
10 Valparaiso114736%67.369.4-2.1
11 Murray State113827%71.872.1-0.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Samford119282%91.577.2+14.4
2 NC Greensboro108280%78.670.8+7.8
3 Western Carolina108280%76.568.7+7.8
4 Chattanooga Mocs107370%80.767.5+13.2
5 East Tennessee St106460%71.867.3+4.5
6 Citadel116555%71.266.4+4.8
7 Wofford116555%81.577.8+3.6
8 Furman115645%86.582.0+4.5
9 Mercer104640%65.472.3-6.9
10 VMI1221017%68.572.5-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso273461
Samford354479
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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