Ventspils vs VEF Riga Result & Analysis

Ventspils will host VEF Riga on 14 November 2026 in the Latvia-Estonian League, with the model favouring VEF Riga and predicting a 71% chance of an away win; the projected score is 83-89 with a total of 171.7 points, and the home team line of 9.0 gives VEF Riga a 60% chance to cover, while the over line of 168.5 carries a 57% probability of going over, with a 5% chance of overtime. Ventspils, 6-3 overall with 86.2 points per game and 82.0 allowed, sits fourth in the league, and has a 2-1 record at home, averaging 83.0 points and allowing 76.7; their last five games included a loss to Parnu 80-89 away, a win over Viimsi 75-60 at home, and a win over BK Ogre 92-88 away. VEF Riga, 7-2 overall with 89.6 points per game and 75.0 allowed, occupies second place, and on the road has a 3-1 record, scoring 91.8 and conceding 84.0; their last five games featured a win over Lok. Plovdiv 85-83 away, a loss to Viimsi 88-104 away, and a win over Fribourg Olympic 97-65 away. Historically, VEF Riga has dominated the rivalry with nine wins to Ventspils' single victory, the most recent meeting ending 90-71 for VEF Riga on 24 March 2026.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ventspils winLost

29.0%fair 3.45

Best odds4.33

Implied23.4%

Edge+5.5pp

VEF Riga winWon

71.0%fair 1.41

Best odds1.25

Implied76.6%

Edge-5.5pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VentspilsLast 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormVentspils

Date

Competition

VEF Riga

71-90

-19

57avg 81

A24/03

Latvia-Estonian League

Valmiera Glass Via

76-98

-22

65avg 81

A25/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#14

108-92

108

+16

106avg 81

A28/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Tartu Ulikool

92-85

87avg 81

H02/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BC Kalev/Cramo

86-73

+13

83avg 81

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

85-68

+17

78avg 81

A11/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

82-85

-3

78avg 81

H16/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BK Ogre

#10

92-88

83avg 81

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

75-60

+15

65avg 81

H30/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Parnu

80-89

-9

no box

A07/11

Latvia-Estonian League

23-29

27-19

5-19

16-23

20-29

21-23

19-24

16-22

27-24

26-19

34-22

21-27

25-23

27-32

20-13

20-17

14-24

26-18

24-18

22-13

28-13

15-16

27-21

15-18

17-17

22-16

17-28

26-24

23-29

29-22

23-19

17-18

20-12

21-14

15-13

19-21

17-23

22-22

21-20

20-24

167.5Avg total

84.7Scored

82.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	86.2	82.0	168.2	+4.2	67%
Season at home (3)	83.0	76.7	159.7	+6.3	67%
Season away (6)	87.8	84.7	172.5	+3.2	67%
Last 10 (10)	84.7	82.8	167.5	+1.9	60%
Last 5 (5)	82.8	78.0	160.8	+4.8	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	76.7	89.8	166.4	-13.1	22%
vs Similar (7)	88.7	82.3	171.0	+6.4	57%
vs Weaker (13)	91.3	80.4	171.7	+10.9	85%

This opponent (VEF Riga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

VEF RigaLast 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormRiga

Date

Competition

Tal Tech

90-70

+20

84avg 84

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Neftchi IK

#38

110-94

110

+16

117avg 84

A14/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Parnu

89-72

+17

84avg 84

H17/10

Latvia-Estonian League

CSM Oradea

#15

84-92

-8

77avg 84

A21/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Valmiera Glass Via

97-89

94avg 84

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Mykonos

88-91

-3

83avg 84

H28/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Tartu Ulikool

74-86

-12

69avg 84

H31/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Fribourg Olympic

#46

97-65

+32

no box

A04/11

FIBA Europe Cup

Viimsi

#13

88-104

104

-16

no box

A08/11

Latvia-Estonian League

Lok. Plovdiv

#24

85-83

no box

A11/11

FIBA Europe Cup

18-15

21-18

28-19

23-18

24-26

26-30

30-16

30-22

17-19

19-15

29-17

24-21

23-20

17-20

22-25

22-27

22-16

20-17

27-27

28-29

26-20

21-20

25-18

16-33

34-25

17-15

9-18

14-28

26-14

27-14

21-22

23-15

25-27

14-18

26-30

23-29

20-24

22-28

22-17

21-14

174.8Avg total

90.2Scored

84.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	89.6	75.0	164.6	+14.6	78%
Season at home (5)	87.8	67.8	155.6	+20.0	80%
Season away (4)	91.8	84.0	175.8	+7.8	75%
Last 10 (10)	90.2	84.6	174.8	+5.6	60%
Last 5 (5)	86.4	85.8	172.2	+0.6	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	86.6	89.6	176.2	-3.0	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	88.3	73.5	161.8	+14.9	81%

This opponent (Ventspils) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 165.5Actual: Over 165.5

Over 165.5

63.8%

@ 1.68+5.2pp

Under 165.5

36.2%

@ 2.25-5.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.68

Betano

1.67

1xBet

1.60

Pinnacle

1.59

Marathon Be

1.53

Under

Pinnacle

2.25

Bet365

2.05

Betano

2.02

1xBet

1.92

Over/Under 170.5 · main lineActual: Over 170.5

Over 170.5

52.0%

@ 2.15+2.0pp

Under 170.5

48.0%

@ 1.87-2.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.15

Betano

2.12

Pinnacle

1.87

Marathon Be

1.85

1xBet

1.79

Under

Pinnacle

1.87

Marathon Be

1.78

1xBet

1.71

Betano

1.62

Bet365

1.62

Over/Under 175.5Actual: Over 175.5

Over 175.5

40.0%

@ 2.72+6.4pp

Under 175.5

60.0%

@ 1.38-6.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.72

Under

Betano

1.38

📊 3. Team Totals

Ventspils total 74.5Actual: Ventspils over 74.5

Over 74.5

78.4%

@ 1.37+9.9pp

Under 74.5

21.6%

@ 2.91-9.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.37

1xBet

1.28

Under

1xBet

2.91

Bet365

2.85

Ventspils total 78.5 · main lineActual: Ventspils over 78.5

Over 78.5

65.2%

@ 1.83+12.8pp

Under 78.5

34.8%

@ 1.99-12.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.53

Under

1xBet

1.99

Betano

1.93

Bet365

1.83

Ventspils total 82.5Actual: Ventspils over 82.5

Over 82.5

50.1%

@ 2.35+9.8pp

Under 82.5

49.9%

@ 1.55-9.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.35

Bet365

2.30

1xBet

2.01

Under

Bet365

1.55

1xBet

1.52

Betano

1.50

VEF Riga total 85.5Actual: VEF Riga over 85.5

Over 85.5

63.3%

@ 1.57+3.5pp

Under 85.5

36.7%

@ 2.35-3.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.53

1xBet

1.39

Under

1xBet

2.35

Betano

2.27

Bet365

2.25

VEF Riga total 89.5 · main lineActual: VEF Riga over 89.5

Over 89.5

47.8%

@ 2.02-2.2pp

Under 89.5

52.2%

@ 1.88+2.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.02

WilliamHill

1.85

Marathon Be

1.83

BetVictor

1.83

1xBet

1.74

Under

BetVictor

1.88

WilliamHill

1.85

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.70

Betano

1.67

VEF Riga total 93.5Actual: VEF Riga over 93.5

Over 93.5

32.6%

@ 2.75-2.4pp

Under 93.5

67.4%

@ 1.40+2.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.75

1xBet

2.41

Under

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Ventspils +6Actual: VEF Riga -6

VET +6

48.3%

@ 2.20+6.2pp

VRI -6

51.7%

@ 1.60-6.2pp

Best 5 market prices

VET

Bet365

2.20

VRI

Bet365

1.60

Spread Ventspils +9 · main lineActual: VEF Riga -9

VET +9

59.8%

@ 1.88+10.2pp

VRI -9

40.2%

@ 1.86-10.2pp

Best 5 market prices

VET

Pinnacle

1.88

SBO

1.83

Marathon Be

1.82

1xBet

1.82

Bet365

1.80

VRI

Bet365

1.86

Pinnacle

1.85

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.83

SBO

1.83

Spread Ventspils +12Actual: Ventspils +12

VET +12

70.1%

@ 1.60+12.3pp

VRI -12

29.9%

@ 2.20-12.3pp

Best 5 market prices

VET

Bet365

1.60

Marathon Be

1.52

VRI

Bet365

2.20

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

VentspilsVEF Riga

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	23.6	22.3	45.9	+1.3	53%	63%
Last 30 at home (14)	23.9	21.9	45.8	+1.9	57%	71%
Last 30 away (16)	23.3	22.6	45.9	+0.7	50%	56%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	22.3	43.7	-0.9	40%	50%
Last 5 (5)	21.0	18.8	39.8	+2.2	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	22.2	24.3	46.6	-2.1	33%	67%
vs Similar (7)	21.7	22.9	44.6	-1.1	43%	57%
vs Weaker (13)	24.8	21.4	46.2	+3.5	69%	62%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	23.1	20.5	43.6	+2.6	67%	60%
Last 30 at home (15)	23.4	21.1	44.5	+2.3	67%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	22.9	19.9	42.7	+3.0	67%	60%
Last 10 (10)	23.5	20.6	44.1	+2.9	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	26.2	22.0	48.2	+4.2	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	22.1	21.2	43.4	+0.9	50%	62%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	23.2	19.9	43.1	+3.3	71%	57%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	22.0	19.9	42.0	+2.1	63%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	19.9	19.1	39.1	+0.8	64%	29%
Last 30 away (16)	23.9	20.6	44.5	+3.2	62%	75%
Last 10 (10)	23.6	20.1	43.7	+3.5	60%	70%
Last 5 (5)	21.8	18.0	39.8	+3.8	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	18.7	21.7	40.3	-3.0	33%	33%
vs Similar (7)	24.6	21.4	46.0	+3.1	71%	86%
vs Weaker (13)	21.9	18.1	40.0	+3.8	77%	46%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	22.3	18.6	40.9	+3.8	60%	33%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.7	17.3	40.0	+5.3	80%	27%
Last 30 away (15)	22.0	19.8	41.8	+2.2	40%	40%
Last 10 (10)	20.4	19.5	39.9	+0.9	60%	20%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	19.0	39.2	+1.2	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	21.4	18.5	39.9	+2.9	62%	12%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	22.9	18.5	41.3	+4.4	62%	43%

VentspilsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

VEF Riga

50-48

A24/03

Latvia-Estonian League

Valmiera Glass Via

41-52

-11

A25/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#14

53-43

+10

A28/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Tartu Ulikool

52-55

-3

H02/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BC Kalev/Cramo

40-42

-2

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

43-29

+14

A11/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

39-33

H16/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BK Ogre

#10

52-51

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

41-26

+15

H30/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Parnu

39-45

-6

A07/11

Latvia-Estonian League

87.4Avg total

45.0Scored

42.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.75
Last 30 (30)	45.6	42.2	87.8	+3.4	60%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	43.8	41.1	84.9	+2.7	50%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	47.2	43.2	90.4	+3.9	69%	62%
Last 10 (10)	45.0	42.4	87.4	+2.6	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	42.8	36.8	79.6	+6.0	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	40.9	46.0	86.9	-5.1	22%	56%
vs Similar (7)	46.3	44.3	90.6	+2.0	57%	57%
vs Weaker (13)	46.8	39.5	86.2	+7.3	85%	46%

This opponent (VEF Riga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

VEF RigaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Tal Tech

39-33

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Neftchi IK

#38

50-56

-6

A14/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Parnu

36-34

H17/10

Latvia-Estonian League

CSM Oradea

#15

40-40

A21/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Valmiera Glass Via

42-33

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Mykonos

47-40

H28/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Tartu Ulikool

51-40

+11

H31/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Fribourg Olympic

#46

53-28

+25

A04/11

FIBA Europe Cup

Viimsi

#13

39-45

-6

A08/11

Latvia-Estonian League

Lok. Plovdiv

#24

42-52

-10

A11/11

FIBA Europe Cup

84.0Avg total

43.9Scored

40.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.75
Last 30 (30)	45.5	39.1	84.5	+6.4	77%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	46.1	38.5	84.5	+7.6	93%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	44.9	39.7	84.5	+5.2	60%	40%
Last 10 (10)	43.9	40.1	84.0	+3.8	60%	40%
Last 5 (5)	46.4	41.0	87.4	+5.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	43.5	39.8	83.2	+3.8	88%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	46.0	38.4	84.4	+7.7	71%	43%

This opponent (Ventspils) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: VEF Riga win

VET win

no forecast

@ 3.41

VRI win

no forecast

@ 1.41

1st half Spread Ventspils +3.5 · main lineActual: Ventspils +3.5

VET +3.5

no forecast

@ 2.07

VRI -3.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 84.75 · main lineActual: Over 84.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.82

Under

no forecast

@ 1.79

Ventspils 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Ventspils over 39.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.85

Under

no forecast

@ 1.91

VEF Riga 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: VEF Riga over 44.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.85

Under

no forecast

@ 1.88

1st half: VET + total 83.5

VET & over

no forecast

@ 5.50

VET & under

no forecast

@ 5.25

1st half: Draw + total 83.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 31.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: VRI + total 83.5

VRI & over

no forecast

@ 2.90

VRI & under

no forecast

@ 2.75

1st half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Over 83.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.86

Under

no forecast

@ 2.03

1st half Over/Under 86Actual: Over 86

Over

no forecast

@ 1.93

Under

no forecast

@ 1.81

1st half Spread Ventspils +2.5Actual: VEF Riga -2.5

VET +2.5

no forecast

@ 2.30

VRI -2.5

no forecast

@ 1.58

1st half Spread Ventspils +4.5Actual: Ventspils +4.5

VET +4.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

VRI -4.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Over 87.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.65

Under

no forecast

@ 1.43

1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.66

Under

no forecast

@ 2.25

1st half Spread Ventspils +1.5Actual: VEF Riga -1.5

VET +1.5

no forecast

@ 2.32

VRI -1.5

no forecast

@ 1.43

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: VEF Riga (regulation)

VET

no forecast

@ 3.22

Draw

no forecast

@ 23.00

VRI

no forecast

@ 1.45

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.6	21.1	41.7	-0.4	57%	47%
Last 30 at home (14)	18.9	21.1	39.9	-2.2	43%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	22.2	21.1	43.2	+1.1	69%	56%
Last 10 (10)	20.5	19.7	40.2	+0.8	70%	40%
Last 5 (5)	20.6	20.2	40.8	+0.4	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	16.2	20.9	37.1	-4.7	22%	33%
vs Similar (7)	20.7	19.7	40.4	+1.0	71%	29%
vs Weaker (13)	23.1	21.8	44.8	+1.3	69%	62%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	22.1	18.5	40.6	+3.6	63%	43%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.2	15.6	37.8	+6.6	80%	33%
Last 30 away (15)	22.1	21.4	43.5	+0.7	47%	53%
Last 10 (10)	23.9	20.9	44.8	+3.0	50%	80%
Last 5 (5)	20.6	21.0	41.6	-0.4	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	22.0	22.5	44.5	-0.5	50%	62%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	21.6	16.8	38.3	+4.8	67%	33%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.6	20.1	40.7	+0.5	43%	40%
Last 30 at home (14)	21.9	20.9	42.8	+1.1	50%	50%
Last 30 away (16)	19.4	19.4	38.8	-0.1	38%	31%
Last 10 (10)	19.2	20.7	39.9	-1.5	30%	30%
Last 5 (5)	19.4	21.0	40.4	-1.6	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	19.6	22.9	42.4	-3.3	22%	44%
vs Similar (7)	21.7	18.3	40.0	+3.4	57%	29%
vs Weaker (13)	21.5	19.2	40.6	+2.3	54%	46%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.8	20.7	41.5	+0.1	50%	40%
Last 30 at home (15)	20.3	20.8	41.1	-0.5	53%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	21.3	20.6	41.9	+0.7	47%	40%
Last 10 (10)	22.4	23.6	46.0	-1.2	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	19.4	23.8	43.2	-4.4	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	21.1	27.4	48.5	-6.2	25%	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	20.7	18.3	39.0	+2.4	57%	29%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83
Last 30 (30)	41.2	41.2	82.4	+0.0	50%	37%
Last 30 at home (14)	40.8	41.9	82.7	-1.1	43%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	41.6	40.5	82.1	+1.1	56%	31%
Last 10 (10)	39.7	40.4	80.1	-0.7	50%	30%
Last 5 (5)	40.0	41.2	81.2	-1.2	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)	35.8	43.8	79.6	-8.0	22%	33%
vs Similar (7)	42.4	38.0	80.4	+4.4	57%	29%
vs Weaker (13)	44.5	40.9	85.5	+3.6	69%	46%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83
Last 30 (30)	43.0	39.2	82.2	+3.8	63%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	42.5	36.4	78.9	+6.1	73%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	43.4	42.0	85.4	+1.4	53%	53%
Last 10 (10)	46.3	44.5	90.8	+1.8	50%	70%
Last 5 (5)	40.0	44.8	84.8	-4.8	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	43.1	49.9	93.0	-6.8	25%	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)	42.3	35.1	77.4	+7.2	76%	33%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

VET win + total 168.5

🔒 Pro

VRI win + total 168.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: VET leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: VRI leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (VET:VRI): VET wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 162	72.0%	1.57	Bet365 1.57	-	-	-	-	+13.1pp	Won
Ventspils over 73.5	81.1%	1.33	Bet365 1.38	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	+12.9pp	Won
Ventspils over 71.5	86.0%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+12.9pp	Won
Ventspils +12	70.1%	1.56	Bet365 1.60	Marathon Bet 1.52	-	-	-	+12.3pp	Won
Ventspils over 75.5	75.4%	1.43	Bet365 1.52	Betano 1.45	1xBet 1.33	-	-	+12.1pp	Won
Ventspils over 76.5	72.2%	1.48	Betano 1.53	Bet365 1.52	1xBet 1.38	-	-	+10.9pp	Won
Ventspils +16.5	81.7%	1.29	Betano 1.29	-	-	-	-	+10.7pp	Won
Ventspils +14.5	76.8%	1.36	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.38	1xBet 1.28	-	-	+10.4pp	Won
Ventspils +15.5	79.3%	1.33	Betano 1.33	-	-	-	-	+10.4pp	Won
Ventspils +12.5	71.1%	1.50	Bet365 1.57	Betano 1.50	Marathon Bet 1.49	1xBet 1.42	-	+10.0pp	Won
Ventspils over 72.5	83.7%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Ventspils over 74.5	78.4%	1.33	Bet365 1.37	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Ventspils +19.5	87.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+9.8pp	Won
Ventspils over 69.5	89.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Won
Ventspils over 70.5	88.1%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+9.2pp	Won
Ventspils +13.5	74.0%	1.40	Betano 1.44	Bet365 1.43	1xBet 1.34	-	-	+9.1pp	Won
Over 160.5	74.5%	1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	-	+8.9pp	Won
Over 161.5	72.5%	1.44	Betano 1.44	-	-	-	-	+8.9pp	Won
Over 162.5	70.4%	1.50	Betano 1.50	Bet365 1.50	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Ventspils over 68.5	91.6%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Won
Over 157.5	80.1%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+8.2pp	Won
Over 152.5	87.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Won
Ventspils +18.5	85.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Won
Ventspils +24.5	94.0%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
VEF Riga over 76.5	88.9%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Won
VEF Riga over 77.5	86.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Won
VEF Riga over 78.5	84.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Ventspils +23.5	93.0%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
VEF Riga over 80.5	79.7%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
VEF Riga over 70.5	96.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
VEF Riga over 67.5	98.2%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
VEF Riga over 68.5	97.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
VEF Riga over 69.5	97.1%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
VEF Riga over 72.5	94.6%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
VEF Riga over 71.5	95.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Over 147.5	92.8%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
VEF Riga over 79.5	82.3%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
VEF Riga over 74.5	92.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
VEF Riga over 73.5	93.5%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Over 142.5	96.2%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
VEF Riga over 81.5	76.8%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Won
VEF Riga over 66.5	98.6%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Won
VEF Riga over 75.5	90.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
VEF Riga over 82.5	73.7%	1.33	Bet365 1.38	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
VEF Riga +16.5	96.9%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
VEF Riga +15.5	96.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
VEF Riga +11.5	93.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Won
VEF Riga under 95.5	74.1%	1.28	Bet365 1.29	1xBet 1.27	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Lost
Overtime: no	95.4%	1.02	WilliamHill 1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	+3.0pp	Won
VEF Riga over 83.5	70.4%	1.34	Bet365 1.41	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
VEF Riga +10.5	92.1%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
VEF Riga under 94.5	70.8%	1.31	1xBet 1.32	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Lost
Ventspils under 98.5	93.1%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
Ventspils under 96.5	90.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+0.8pp	Won
VEF Riga +6.5	85.9%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.4pp	Won
Ventspils under 97.5	91.8%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
Under 192.5	89.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	-0.0pp	Won
Ventspils under 94.5	87.0%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	-1.3pp	Won
Ventspils under 95.5	88.8%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	-1.4pp	Won
Ventspils under 92.5	82.7%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
VEF Riga +1.5	73.3%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Under 187.5	83.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-2.9pp	Won
Ventspils under 93.5	85.0%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	-3.7pp	Won
Ventspils under 90.5	77.6%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-3.8pp	Won
Under 182.5	74.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-4.7pp	Won
Ventspils under 89.5	74.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-4.8pp	Won
VEF Riga win	71.0%	1.21	Betano 1.25	Bet365 1.25	1xBet 1.23	Marathon Bet 1.22	Betfair 1.20	-5.5pp	Won
Ventspils under 91.5	80.3%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-5.8pp	Won
Ventspils under 88.5	71.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-6.2pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Ventspilstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ventspils: 83.6 points a game scored

🏀🏀46%

🏀🏀🏀34%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 46% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 34% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game

52%

30%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.2	19.2	53.0%	52.5%	38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.1	9.5	31.6%	31.4%	28.5
🏀 Free throws	22.8	16.7	73.2%	68.3%	16.7

They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

VEF Rigatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

VEF Riga: 91.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀29%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers46.2 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 29% of the points

🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game

52%

30%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.7	23.1	58.2%	52.5%	46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.9	8.8	31.5%	31.4%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	26.0	18.4	70.8%	68.3%	18.4

They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.6	23.9	54.8%	52.5%	47.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	22.0	6.2	28.2%	31.4%	18.6
🏀 Free throws	22.0	14.2	64.5%	68.3%	14.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.9	19.4	51.2%	52.5%	38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.1	9.1	32.4%	31.4%	27.3
🏀 Free throws	19.2	11.9	62.0%	68.3%	11.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.5	20.7	55.3%	52.5%	41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.3	9.6	29.7%	31.4%	28.8
🏀 Free throws	23.0	16.8	73.1%	68.3%	16.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.3	24.2	58.5%	52.5%	48.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.2	8.0	30.5%	31.4%	24.0
🏀 Free throws	24.8	16.5	66.8%	68.3%	16.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.7	22.3	52.3%	52.5%	44.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.8	7.2	30.3%	31.4%	21.7
🏀 Free throws	23.3	15.6	66.9%	68.3%	15.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.2	18.5	52.4%	52.5%	36.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.0	8.5	29.2%	31.4%	25.4
🏀 Free throws	22.8	14.7	64.5%	68.3%	14.7

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Ventspils

LWWLWWWWLL

VEF Riga

WLWLLWLWWW

League position

+3.4

Net rating

+14.5

93.8

Offensive rating

101.3

90.5

Defensive rating

86.9

50.5%

Effective FG%

53.7%

50.6%

Opp. effective FG%

50.1%

15.7%

Turnover %

12.4%

0.34

Free-throw rate

0.38

31.6%

3-point %

31.5%

62.7%

Assist %

77.4%

60%

Form (last 10/10)

60%

Profile

■ Ventspils ■ VEF Riga

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Ventspils wins

VEF Riga wins

Date	Game	Score
24/03/26	VEF Riga v Ventspils	90-71
22/03/26	Ventspils v VEF Riga	72-69
18/03/26	VEF Riga v Ventspils	77-54
13/02/26	Ventspils v VEF Riga	78-87
21/10/25	VEF Riga v Ventspils	76-69
22/05/25	Ventspils v VEF Riga	91-93
19/05/25	VEF Riga v Ventspils	89-68
17/05/25	Ventspils v VEF Riga	106-114
13/05/25	VEF Riga v Ventspils	91-77
15/03/25	Ventspils v VEF Riga	84-89 OT

Ventspilslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
07/11/26	A	Parnu	80-89
30/10/26	H	Viimsi	75-60
24/10/26	A	BK Ogre	92-88
16/10/26	H	Tal Tech	82-85
11/10/26	A	Keila Coolbet	85-68
10/10/26	A	BC Kalev/Cramo	86-73
02/10/26	H	Tartu Ulikool	92-85
28/09/26	A	Latvijas Universitate	108-92
25/09/26	A	Valmiera Glass Via	76-98
24/03/26	A	VEF Riga	71-90

VEF Rigalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/11/26	A	Lok. Plovdiv	85-83
08/11/26	A	Viimsi	88-104
04/11/26	A	Fribourg Olympic	97-65
31/10/26	H	Tartu Ulikool	74-86
28/10/26	H	Mykonos	88-91
24/10/26	A	Valmiera Glass Via	97-89
21/10/26	A	CSM Oradea	84-92
17/10/26	H	Parnu	89-72
14/10/26	A	Neftchi IK	110-94
10/10/26	A	Tal Tech	90-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ventspils

Latvia-Estonian League 2026

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWWL	67%
Home	WLW	67%
Away	WWWWL	67%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	3	6
Win %	67%	67%	67%
Points / game	86.2	83.0	87.8
Allowed / game	82.0	76.7	84.7
Point differential	+4.2	+6.3	+3.2
Avg total	168.2	159.7	172.5
Over 170.5	44%	33%	50%
Win by 10+	44%	33%	50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (2)	0% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

VEF Riga

Latvia-Estonian League 2026

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWLL	78%
Home	WWWWL	80%
Away	WWWL	75%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	5	4
Win %	78%	80%	75%
Points / game	89.6	87.8	91.8
Allowed / game	75.0	67.8	84.0
Point differential	+14.6	+20.0	+7.8
Avg total	164.6	155.6	175.8
Over 170.5	22%	0%	50%
Win by 10+	67%	80%	50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Rigas Zelli	8	8	0	100%	93.8	74.4	+19.4
2	VEF Riga	9	7	2	78%	89.6	75.0	+14.6
3	Valmiera Glass Via	9	7	2	78%	89.9	76.9	+13.0
4	Ventspils	9	6	3	67%	86.2	82.0	+4.2
5	Tartu Ulikool	8	5	3	62%	82.8	76.4	+6.4
6	Tal Tech	10	6	4	60%	73.7	73.8	-0.1
7	Parnu	7	4	3	57%	78.9	78.1	+0.7
8	BC Kalev/Cramo	8	4	4	50%	84.6	82.6	+2.0
9	Keila KK	10	5	5	50%	74.3	81.6	-7.3
10	BK Liepaja	9	4	5	44%	83.6	76.0	+7.6
11	BK Ogre	9	4	5	44%	86.7	86.7	+0.0
12	Rigas Juniori	8	3	5	38%	80.0	88.5	-8.5
13	Viimsi	10	2	8	20%	74.5	86.2	-11.7
14	Latvijas Universitate	9	1	8	11%	76.9	91.9	-15.0
15	Keila Coolbet	9	0	9	0%	70.3	91.1	-20.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Ventspils	26	19	13	27	85
VEF Riga	26	22	21	27	96

← all games of the day

Ventspils vs VEF Riga Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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