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Virginia Tech vs Mount St. Mary's Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 84-61
Projected total 145.4
Final 82-62
42-30 40-32
Position#45
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game92.3
Allowed / game69.7
Virginia Tech 🏆
USA
Vs
97%
■ VIRG 97%■ MOUN 3%
Pythia win probability
Mount St. Mary's
USA
Position#295
Record1-1
FormLWLLW
Points / game60.0
Allowed / game77.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Virginia Tech will host Mount St. Mary's on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Hokies the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win largely because of their 3-0 season record, 92.3 points per game and only 69.7 allowed, with a league position of 50; Mount St. Mary's sit at 1-1 with 60.0 points per game and 77.0 allowed, league position 242. Virginia Tech has won both of its home games, averaging 92.0 points and allowing 60.5, and has won three of its last five games, including a 93-88 victory over Iowa away, a 96-67 win over Mercer at home and a 88-54 win over Coppin State at home; Mount St. Mary's has won two of its last five, with a recent 68-57 win over Loyola Maryland at home but losses to Xavier and Siena away. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 84-61 score, 145.4 total points, and a 40% chance the total will exceed 149.5, with a 1% chance of overtime, and the model gives Virginia Tech a 97% chance to cover the spread. The Hokies' dominant early season numbers suggest they will continue to outpace the Mountaineers, who have struggled on the road.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia Tech winWon
97.0%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+2.2pp
Mount St. Mary's winLost
3.0%fair 33.57
Best odds50.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-2.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Virginia TechUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
L
69-92
69
92
-23
H14/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A18/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
82-63
82
63
+19
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
82-89
82
89
-7
A01/03
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
72-76
72
76
-4
A07/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
89-95 OT
89
95
-6
H10/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#336
W
88-54
88
54
+34
H04/11
NCAA
Mercer
#259
W
96-67
96
67
+29
H06/11
NCAA
Iowa
#151
W
93-88 OT
93
88
+5
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-39
27-53
34-31
32-36
43-33
39-30
44-44
38-45
35-24
37-39
25-41
47-35
34-38
41-37
45-27
43-27
47-24
49-43
41-40
38-39
156.3Avg total
80.9Scored
75.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)92.369.7162.0+22.7100%
Season at home (2)92.060.5152.5+31.5100%
Season away (1)93.088.0181.0+5.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.975.4156.3+5.550%
Last 5 (5)87.676.0163.6+11.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)72.279.6151.9-7.412%
vs Similar (15)78.376.2154.5+2.160%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)83.465.9149.3+17.6100%
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mount St. Mary'sUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H06/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
83-76
83
76
+7
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
69-47
69
47
+22
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#8
L
52-97
52
97
-45
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
68-57
68
57
+11
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-39
30-48
39-34
44-42
28-21
37-34
31-31
45-32
20-24
48-23
32-31
37-46
39-25
30-22
21-35
37-28
16-51
36-46
29-22
39-35
134.7Avg total
67.8Scored
66.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)60.077.0137.0-17.050%
Season at home (1)68.057.0125.0+11.0100%
Season away (1)52.097.0149.0-45.00%
Last 10 (10)67.866.9134.7+0.960%
Last 5 (5)63.268.2131.4-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)63.373.8137.1-10.529%
vs Similar (8)72.274.4146.6-2.150%
vs Weaker (8)73.661.1134.8+12.588%
This opponent (Virginia Tech) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
52.0%
@ 1.44-12.1pp
Under 144.5
48.0%
@ 2.57+12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
39.7%
@ 1.83-11.2pp
Under 149.5
60.3%
@ 1.98+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
28.4%
@ 2.32-11.3pp
Under 154.5
71.6%
@ 1.53+11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Virginia Tech total 85.5Actual: Virginia Tech under 85.5
Over 85.5
43.6%
@ 1.42-20.1pp
Under 85.5
56.4%
@ 2.50+20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
Virginia Tech total 89.5 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech under 89.5
Over 89.5
28.6%
@ 1.91-21.3pp
Under 89.5
71.4%
@ 1.85+21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Virginia Tech total 93.5Actual: Virginia Tech under 93.5
Over 93.5
16.6%
@ 2.55-18.8pp
Under 93.5
83.4%
@ 1.40+18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Mount St. Mary's total 56.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's over 56.5
Over 56.5
68.9%
@ 1.37+2.8pp
Under 56.5
31.1%
@ 2.67-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.67
Mount St. Mary's total 60.5 · main lineActual: Mount St. Mary's over 60.5
Over 60.5
53.5%
@ 1.86+3.5pp
Under 60.5
46.5%
@ 1.91-3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Mount St. Mary's total 64.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's under 64.5
Over 64.5
37.7%
@ 2.47+1.2pp
Under 64.5
62.3%
@ 1.42-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Virginia Tech -31.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +31.5
VIRG -31.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
MOUN +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Betano
2.22
MOUN
Betano
1.57
Spread Virginia Tech -28.5 · main lineActual: Mount St. Mary's +28.5
VIRG -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
MOUN +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
MOUN
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Virginia Tech -25.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +25.5
VIRG -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
MOUN +25.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Betano
1.57
MOUN
Betano
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.9+4.91st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: +0.7+0.72nd half: +2.7+2.7
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.9+4.91st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: +0.7+0.72nd half: +2.7+2.7
Virginia TechMount St. Mary's
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Virginia TechLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H14/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A18/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
44-44
44
44
+0
A01/03
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A07/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H10/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#336
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H04/11
NCAA
Mercer
#259
W
47-24
47
24
+23
H06/11
NCAA
Iowa
#151
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A11/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
39.0Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)35.834.069.8+1.853%47%
Last 30 at home (16)38.631.970.5+6.869%56%
Last 30 away (14)32.536.468.9-3.936%36%
Last 10 (10)39.034.173.1+4.970%60%
Last 5 (5)38.434.072.4+4.460%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)29.236.665.9-7.412%25%
vs Similar (15)37.135.072.1+2.153%67%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)40.428.969.3+11.6100%29%
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mount St. Mary'sLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H06/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
28-21
28
21
+7
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
39-25
39
25
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
21-35
21
35
-14
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#8
L
16-51
16
51
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H07/11
NCAA
60.8Avg total
29.5Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)31.634.265.8-2.640%30%
Last 30 at home (13)33.233.266.5+0.038%31%
Last 30 away (17)30.434.965.2-4.541%29%
Last 10 (10)29.531.360.8-1.860%20%
Last 5 (5)27.432.860.2-5.460%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)29.935.265.1-5.343%29%
vs Similar (8)35.436.171.5-0.850%50%
vs Weaker (8)30.830.461.1+0.425%12%
This opponent (Virginia Tech) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Virginia Tech win
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.03
MOUN win
no forecast
@ 12.50
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -15.5 · main lineActual: Mount St. Mary's +15.5
VIRG -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
MOUN +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.98
Virginia Tech 1st half total 44 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech under 44
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Mount St. Mary's 1st half total 27.5 · main lineActual: Mount St. Mary's over 27.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -16.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +16.5
VIRG -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
MOUN +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -14.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +14.5
VIRG -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
MOUN +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -17.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +17.5
VIRG -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
MOUN +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -13.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +13.5
VIRG -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
MOUN +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -18.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +18.5
VIRG -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
MOUN +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Virginia Tech -12.5Actual: Mount St. Mary's +12.5
VIRG -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
MOUN +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia Tech (regulation)
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
MOUN
no forecast
@ 11.75

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VIRG win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
MOUN win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VIRG leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Virginia Tech under 9073.9%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+23.3ppWon
Virginia Tech under 89.571.4%1.83
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80		-+21.3ppWon
Virginia Tech under 90.574.8%1.72
Betano
1.72		----+20.7ppWon
Virginia Tech under 91.577.9%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+20.4ppWon
Virginia Tech under 8970.4%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+20.4ppWon
Virginia Tech under 92.580.7%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+20.2ppWon
Virginia Tech under 93.583.4%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+18.8ppWon
Virginia Tech under 94.585.8%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+18.1ppWon
Under 154.571.6%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+11.3ppWon
Under 155.573.7%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+11.0ppWon
Under 156.575.6%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+10.8ppWon
Under 157.577.5%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+10.4ppWon
Virginia Tech (regulation)96.5%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+4.9ppWon
Mount St. Mary's over 55.572.3%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+2.9ppWon
Virginia Tech win97.0%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+2.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Virginia Tech wins
0
Mount St. Mary's wins
No previous meetings.
Virginia Techlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AIowa93-88 OT
06/11/26HMercer96-67
04/11/26HCoppin State88-54
10/03/26HWake Forest89-95 OT
07/03/26AVirginia72-76
04/03/26HBoston College72-63
01/03/26ANorth Carolina82-89
21/02/26HWake Forest82-63
18/02/26AMiami (FL)66-67
14/02/26HFlorida State69-92
Mount St. Mary'slast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HLoyola Maryland68-57
03/11/26AXavier52-97
08/03/26ASiena58-63
01/03/26AFairfield69-47
28/02/26ASacred Heart69-77
22/02/26HCanisius68-47
21/02/26HNiagara76-63
14/02/26ARider65-55
08/02/26AIona83-76
06/02/26HMerrimack Warriors70-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia Tech
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game92.392.093.0
Allowed / game69.760.588.0
Point differential+22.7+31.5+5.0
Avg total162.0152.5181.0
Over 149.567%50%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %33%0%100%
Mount St. Mary's
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game60.068.052.0
Allowed / game77.057.097.0
Point differential-17.0+11.0-45.0
Avg total137.0125.0149.0
Over 149.50%0%0%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 Virginia440100%93.066.2+26.8
3 SMU Mustangs330100%92.768.3+24.3
4 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
5 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
6 Virginia Tech330100%92.369.7+22.7
7 NC State330100%84.762.3+22.3
8 North Carolina330100%88.368.3+20.0
9 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
10 Georgia Tech330100%85.069.7+15.3
11 Stanford330100%82.067.0+15.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 California43175%87.575.2+12.2
14 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
15 Duke32167%90.060.3+29.7
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Wake Forest32167%72.066.7+5.3
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena32167%85.379.0+6.3
2 Merrimack Warriors32167%65.760.0+5.7
3 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Iona42250%66.271.5-5.2
6 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
7 Mount St. Mary's21150%60.077.0-17.0
8 Marist31233%70.370.7-0.3
9 Manhattan31233%64.373.0-8.7
10 Fairfield31233%59.075.7-16.7
11 Rider41325%64.572.2-7.8
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia Tech424082
Mount St. Mary's303262
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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