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SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 68-72
37-40 31-32
Position#129
Record13-4
FormWWLLW
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game77.0
SMU Mustangs
USA
vs
Virginia 🏆
USA
Position#19
Record15-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game69.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · SMU Mustangs v Virginia
17 Jan 2026
SMU 68
VIRG72
07 Dec 2024
SMU 63
VIRG51
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#257
W
87-81 OT
87
81
+6
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
69-88
69
88
-19
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
97-83
97
83
+14
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/01
NCAA
1H
2H
39-43
35-31
38-48
31-40
41-27
36-50
44-47
33-42
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
39-39
58-44
25-34
45-40
35-41
40-41
39-38
38-38
165.2Avg total
85.4Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)88.477.0165.4+11.476%
Season at home (12)93.874.6168.3+19.2100%
Season away (5)75.682.8158.4-7.220%
Last 10 (10)85.479.8165.2+5.660%
Last 5 (5)85.875.6161.4+10.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)83.075.6158.6+7.464%
vs Weaker (13)84.572.6157.1+11.877%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas
#135
W
88-69
88
69
+19
A04/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
86-73
86
73
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
95-51
95
51
+44
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
85-95 OT
85
95
-10
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
76-61
76
61
+15
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
79-70
79
70
+9
A14/01
NCAA
1H
2H
46-27
42-42
37-33
49-40
46-32
38-28
24-19
56-53
45-25
50-26
24-23
31-32
40-20
36-41
43-33
41-27
41-34
29-21
33-28
46-42
149.3Avg total
82.7Scored
66.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)83.069.2152.2+13.883%
Season at home (13)85.564.9150.5+20.692%
Season away (5)76.480.2156.6-3.860%
Last 10 (10)82.766.6149.3+16.190%
Last 5 (5)78.868.2147.0+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)68.472.8141.2-4.440%
vs Similar ◀ (9)72.868.1140.9+4.767%
vs Weaker (16)83.369.8153.1+13.681%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +10.5+10.52nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: +6.6+6.6
-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +10.5+10.52nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: +6.6+6.6
SMU MustangsVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#257
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/01
NCAA
78.5Avg total
40.2Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.535.474.9+4.157%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.034.475.4+6.679%-
Last 30 away (11)36.937.174.0-0.218%-
Last 10 (10)40.238.378.5+1.940%-
Last 5 (5)37.834.272.0+3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)36.544.581.0-8.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.935.875.7+4.164%-
vs Weaker (13)40.033.873.8+6.254%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas
#135
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A04/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
24-23
24
23
+1
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H10/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A14/01
NCAA
65.3Avg total
37.9Scored
27.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.931.169.0+6.873%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.831.471.2+8.378%-
Last 30 away (12)35.130.565.6+4.667%-
Last 10 (10)37.927.465.3+10.5100%-
Last 5 (5)36.227.663.8+8.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.633.668.2+1.060%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)34.330.965.2+3.456%-
vs Weaker (16)40.930.471.3+10.688%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
16/01/25Virginia v SMU Mustangs52-54
07/12/24SMU Mustangs v Virginia63-51
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/26HVirginia Tech77-76
10/01/26ADuke75-82
08/01/26AClemson70-74
03/01/26HNorth Carolina97-83
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
14/12/25ALSU77-89
07/12/25HTexas A&M93-80 OT
04/12/25AVanderbilt69-88
29/11/25AMississippi St.87-81 OT
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/26ALouisville79-70
10/01/26HStanford70-55
08/01/26HCalifornia84-60
03/01/26ANC State76-61
31/12/25AVirginia Tech85-95 OT
22/12/25HAmerican University95-51
20/12/25HMaryland80-72
10/12/25HMd.-East. Shore84-60
06/12/25HDayton86-73
04/12/25ATexas88-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW76%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17125
Win %76%100%20%
Points / game88.493.875.6
Allowed / game77.074.682.8
Point differential+11.4+19.2-7.2
Avg total165.4168.3158.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+59%83%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%8%20%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW83%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayLWLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18135
Win %83%92%60%
Points / game83.085.576.4
Allowed / game69.264.980.2
Point differential+13.8+20.6-3.8
Avg total152.2150.5156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%77%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %6%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1716194%85.865.9+19.9
2 Miami (FL)1715288%87.869.2+18.6
3 Virginia1815383%83.069.2+13.8
4 Clemson1815383%77.664.8+12.8
5 North Carolina1714382%82.268.7+13.5
6 Stanford1814478%77.971.7+6.2
7 SMU Mustangs1713476%88.477.0+11.4
8 California1813572%78.570.1+8.4
9 Virginia Tech1813572%81.973.9+8.0
10 Louisville1712571%87.270.2+17.1
11 NC State1712571%86.571.2+15.3
12 Syracuse1712571%75.966.9+9.0
13 Wake Forest1710759%81.875.4+6.4
14 Notre Dame1710759%73.268.1+5.1
15 Georgia Tech1810856%75.473.0+2.4
16 Pittsburgh178947%74.169.4+4.8
17 Florida State1771041%83.182.1+1.1
18 Boston College1771041%67.968.2-0.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs373168
Virginia403272
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