PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Louisville vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 14 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 70-79
28-33 42-46
Position#53
Record12-4
FormWWLLW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game69.6
Louisville
USA
vs
Virginia 🏆
USA
Position#19
Record14-3
FormWLWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game69.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Louisville v Virginia
13 Jan 2026
LOUI70
VIRG79
18 Jan 2025
LOUI81
VIRG67
27 Jan 2024
LOUI52
VIRG69
15 Feb 2023
LOUI58
VIRG61
05 Mar 2022
LOUI61
VIRG71
06 Mar 2021
LOUI58
VIRG68
08 Feb 2020
LOUI80
VIRG73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
104-47
104
47
+57
H27/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
80-89
80
89
-9
A04/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H06/12
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
99-73
99
73
+26
H13/12
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
62-83
62
83
-21
A17/12
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
94-54
94
54
+40
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
76-80
76
80
-4
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
73-84
73
84
-11
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
75-62
75
62
+13
H10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
52-20
52-27
29-47
51-42
41-27
46-51
57-37
42-36
27-34
35-49
42-20
52-34
48-34
42-36
34-35
42-45
47-38
26-46
30-34
45-28
156.0Avg total
84.0Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)88.369.6157.9+18.775%
Season at home (11)93.766.2159.9+27.591%
Season away (5)76.477.2153.6-0.840%
Last 10 (10)84.072.0156.0+12.060%
Last 5 (5)81.670.0151.6+11.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)67.578.5146.0-11.00%
vs Similar ◀ (5)74.480.4154.8-6.040%
vs Weaker (23)86.766.7153.3+20.091%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Queens Royals
#116
W
94-69
94
69
+25
H28/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
88-69
88
69
+19
A04/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
86-73
86
73
+13
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
95-51
95
51
+44
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
85-95 OT
85
95
-10
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
76-61
76
61
+15
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
46-29
48-40
46-27
42-42
37-33
49-40
46-32
38-28
24-19
56-53
45-25
50-26
24-23
31-32
40-20
36-41
43-33
41-27
41-34
29-21
150.7Avg total
84.2Scored
66.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)83.269.1152.4+14.182%
Season at home (13)85.564.9150.5+20.692%
Season away (4)75.882.8158.5-7.050%
Last 10 (10)84.266.5150.7+17.790%
Last 5 (5)82.064.4146.4+17.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)68.472.8141.2-4.440%
vs Similar ◀ (9)70.668.6139.1+2.056%
vs Weaker (16)83.369.8153.1+13.681%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-15-7+0+7+151st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: +11.7+11.72nd half2nd half: +3.9+3.92nd half: +7.0+7.0
-15-7+0+7+151st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: +11.7+11.72nd half2nd half: +3.9+3.92nd half: +7.0+7.0
LouisvilleVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
52-20
52
20
+32
H27/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A04/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H06/12
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
57-37
57
37
+20
H13/12
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A17/12
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
42-20
42
20
+22
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H10/01
NCAA
73.3Avg total
40.7Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.731.472.2+9.377%-
Last 30 at home (19)43.631.074.6+12.684%-
Last 30 away (11)35.732.267.9+3.564%-
Last 10 (10)40.732.673.3+8.160%-
Last 5 (5)40.232.272.4+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)42.535.578.0+7.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)32.438.270.6-5.840%-
vs Weaker (23)42.429.672.0+12.883%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Queens Royals
#116
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H28/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A04/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H06/12
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H10/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H20/12
NCAA
American University
#204
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H22/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
24-23
24
23
+1
A31/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A03/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H10/01
NCAA
66.7Avg total
39.2Scored
27.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.731.469.1+6.370%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.131.870.9+7.374%-
Last 30 away (11)35.330.766.0+4.564%-
Last 10 (10)39.227.566.7+11.7100%-
Last 5 (5)38.627.065.6+11.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.633.668.2+1.060%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)33.732.165.8+1.644%-
vs Weaker (16)40.930.471.3+10.688%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Louisville wins
8
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
18/01/25Louisville v Virginia81-67
04/01/25Virginia v Louisville50-70
27/01/24Louisville v Virginia52-69
04/01/24Virginia v Louisville77-53
04/03/23Virginia v Louisville75-60
16/02/23Louisville v Virginia58-61
10/03/22Virginia v Louisville51-50
05/03/22Louisville v Virginia61-71
25/01/22Virginia v Louisville64-52
06/03/21Louisville v Virginia58-68
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26HBoston College75-62
07/01/26HDuke73-84
03/01/26AStanford76-80
31/12/25ACalifornia90-70
20/12/25HMontana94-54
17/12/25ATennessee62-83
13/12/25HMemphis99-73
06/12/25HIndiana87-78
04/12/25AArkansas80-89
27/11/25HNJIT104-47
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26HStanford70-55
08/01/26HCalifornia84-60
03/01/26ANC State76-61
31/12/25AVirginia Tech85-95 OT
22/12/25HAmerican University95-51
20/12/25HMaryland80-72
10/12/25HMd.-East. Shore84-60
06/12/25HDayton86-73
04/12/25ATexas88-69
28/11/25HQueens Royals94-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW75%
HomeWWWLW91%
AwayWLLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16115
Win %75%91%40%
Points / game88.393.776.4
Allowed / game69.666.277.2
Point differential+18.7+27.5-0.8
Avg total157.9159.9153.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%73%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW82%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17134
Win %82%92%50%
Points / game83.285.575.8
Allowed / game69.164.982.8
Point differential+14.1+20.6-7.0
Avg total152.4150.5158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%77%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %6%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1615194%86.866.6+20.2
2 Miami (FL)1614288%88.269.2+19.0
3 North Carolina1614288%81.767.1+14.6
4 Virginia1714382%83.269.1+14.1
5 Clemson1714382%77.865.6+12.2
6 California1713476%79.870.0+9.8
7 Virginia Tech1713476%82.373.8+8.5
8 Stanford1713476%76.970.6+6.3
9 Louisville1612475%88.369.6+18.7
10 SMU Mustangs1612475%89.177.1+12.1
11 NC State1712571%86.571.2+15.3
12 Syracuse1611569%74.865.7+9.1
13 Notre Dame1610662%73.567.3+6.2
14 Wake Forest1710759%81.875.4+6.4
15 Georgia Tech1710759%76.072.1+3.9
16 Pittsburgh167944%73.269.6+3.6
17 Florida State167944%82.981.3+1.6
18 Boston College167944%69.067.9+1.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville284270
Virginia334679
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.