Washington Wizards will host the Houston Rockets on 15 November 2026 in the NBA, with the model favouring Houston at 79% versus 21% for Washington, a reflection of Houston's 10-3 record, 116.2 points per game and 107.4 allowed, and their fourth place league position, compared with Washington's 4-9 record, 110.0 points per game and 115.8 allowed from 13 games. Washington's 2-3 home record, 114.0 points and 114.2 allowed, and a five-game losing streak at home, contrast with Houston's 3-2 road record, 115.4 points and 108.4 allowed, and a five-game record of three wins and two losses. In the last five games Washington has lost to Detroit, Indiana and Detroit again, while Houston has beaten Utah, Golden State and Denver all at home. Their head-to-head history shows Houston winning nine of ten meetings, most recently 123-118 on 2 March 2026. The Pythia model projects a 107-118 score, 225.3 total points, a 9.5-point spread with a 46% chance of the Wizards covering, and a 53% chance of the over on the 223.5 total line, with a 5% probability of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Washington Wizards win
21.3%fair 4.70
Best odds4.25
Implied24.2%
Edge-2.9pp
Houston Rockets win
78.7%fair 1.27
Best odds1.27
Implied75.8%
Edge+2.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 225 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 225-229 (11%). The market's main line is 222.5.
Over/Under 217.5
Over 217.5
65.8%
@ 1.61+6.6pp
Under 217.5
34.2%
@ 2.40-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.61
Betano
1.57
WilliamHill
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Marathon Be
1.54
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betfair
2.32
WilliamHill
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
Betano
2.22
Over/Under 222.5 · main line
Over 222.5
55.3%
@ 1.96+5.5pp
Under 222.5
44.7%
@ 1.93-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.96
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
BetVictor
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Over/Under 227.5
Over 227.5
44.4%
@ 2.44+5.3pp
Under 227.5
55.6%
@ 1.59-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.44
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.40
WilliamHill
2.38
Betano
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.59
Betfair
1.56
Marathon Be
1.53
WilliamHill
1.53
Betano
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Washington Wizards total 102.5
Over 102.5
65.3%
@ 1.47+3.8pp
Under 102.5
34.7%
@ 2.35-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.35
Washington Wizards total 106.5 · main line
Over 106.5
51.9%
@ 1.91+1.3pp
Under 106.5
48.1%
@ 1.95-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Washington Wizards total 110.5
Over 110.5
38.6%
@ 2.47+0.6pp
Under 110.5
61.4%
@ 1.51-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.42
Houston Rockets total 112
Over 112
70.7%
Under 112
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 116 · main line
Over 116
57.3%
@ 1.91+7.5pp
Under 116
42.7%
@ 1.89-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Houston Rockets total 120
Over 120
42.8%
Under 120
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Washington Wizards's side (positive = Washington Wizards win). Pythia's expected margin is -10.6; Washington Wizards win by 1+ in 19% of simulations.
Spread Washington Wizards +6
WAS +6
34.7%
@ 2.40-4.8pp
HOU -6
65.3%
@ 1.52+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
WAS
Bet365
2.40
Marathon Be
2.32
1xBet
2.32
HOU
Bet365
1.52
Marathon Be
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Spread Washington Wizards +9 · main line
WAS +9
44.4%
@ 1.98-5.2pp
HOU -9
55.6%
@ 1.92+5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
WAS
1xBet
1.98
SBO
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.94
Bet365
1.94
HOU
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Spread Washington Wizards +12
WAS +12
54.2%
@ 1.62-6.3pp
HOU -12
45.8%
@ 2.45+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
WAS
1xBet
1.62
Marathon Be
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.57
HOU
Pinnacle
2.45
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Marathon Be
2.19
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Washington WizardsHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread Washington Wizards +4.5 · main line
WAS +4.5
47.0%
@ 1.85-3.5pp
HOU -4.5
53.0%
@ 1.89+3.5pp
2nd half Over/Under 113.5 · main line
Over
42.5%
@ 1.93-5.9pp
Under
57.5%
@ 1.85+5.9pp
Washington Wizards 2nd half total 54 · main line
Over
44.1%
@ 1.84-6.7pp
Under
55.9%
@ 1.90+6.7pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
WAS
29.9%
@ 2.70-4.1pp
Draw
3.4%
@ 21.00-1.3pp
HOU
66.7%
@ 1.50+5.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
56.8
31.9
56.2%
54.0%
63.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
32.2
11.0
34.2%
35.1%
33.0
🏀Free throws
24.5
19.6
80.0%
77.3%
19.6
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
54.4
29.3
53.9%
54.0%
58.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
33.0
11.7
35.5%
35.1%
35.1
🏀Free throws
26.3
21.3
81.0%
77.3%
21.3
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
54.0
30.6
56.7%
54.0%
61.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.8
13.3
34.3%
35.1%
39.9
🏀Free throws
22.9
19.8
86.5%
77.3%
19.8
Their opponents take 92.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Houston Rockets: 110.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
48.8
28.3
58.0%
54.0%
56.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
38.4
12.6
32.8%
35.1%
37.8
🏀Free throws
22.7
16.1
70.9%
77.3%
16.1
Their opponents take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
53.8
30.2
56.0%
54.0%
60.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
35.8
12.9
35.9%
35.1%
38.6
🏀Free throws
22.4
17.1
76.5%
77.3%
17.1
They take 89.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Attempts per game
Made per game
Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
54.9
29.8
54.2%
54.0%
59.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
33.9
12.0
35.5%
35.1%
36.1
🏀Free throws
24.7
19.4
78.3%
77.3%
19.4
They take 88.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
55.8
33.0
59.1%
54.0%
66.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
35.6
12.9
36.3%
35.1%
38.8
🏀Free throws
27.2
22.4
82.3%
77.3%
22.4
Their opponents take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Houston Rockets: 108.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.1 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
51.3
28.1
54.7%
54.0%
56.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
34.5
11.9
34.4%
35.1%
35.6
🏀Free throws
22.4
16.8
74.7%
77.3%
16.8
Their opponents take 85.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Washington Wizards
LLLLLLWWLL
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWWLWW
#23
League position
#4
-4.3
Net rating
+4.5
111.7
Offensive rating
115.9
116.0
Defensive rating
111.4
54.4%
Effective FG%
53.6%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
13.6%
Turnover %
13.9%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.2%
3-point %
35.5%
57.3%
Assist %
63.2%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%
Profile
■ Washington Wizards■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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