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Washington Wizards vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 112-120
Projected total 232.0
Scheduled
Position#23
Record4-9
FormLLLLL
Points / game110.0
Allowed / game115.8
Washington Wizards
USA
Vs
29%
71%
■ WAS 29%■ MEM 71%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.0/10
🧊 Cold
4.4/10
Below normal
Memphis Grizzlies
USA
Position#8
Record9-4
FormLWLWW
Points / game120.6
Allowed / game111.7
USANBA· Capital One Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies
16 Nov 2026
WAS v MEM
upcoming
28 Dec 2025
WAS116
MEM112
08 Dec 2024
WAS112
MEM140
28 Oct 2023
WAS113
MEM106
13 Nov 2022
WAS102
MEM92
05 Nov 2021
WAS115
MEM87
02 Mar 2021
WAS111
MEM125
09 Feb 2020
WAS99
MEM106
16 Mar 2019
WAS135
MEM128
13 Dec 2017
WAS93
MEM87
18 Jan 2017
WAS104
MEM101
23 Dec 2015
WAS100
MEM91
12 Mar 2015
WAS107
MEM87
03 Mar 2014
WAS104
MEM110
25 Mar 2013
WAS107
MEM94
19 Nov 2010
WAS89
MEM86
24 Feb 2010
WAS94
MEM99
02 Feb 2009
WAS97
MEM113
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Washington Wizards host Memphis Grizzlies on 16 November 2026 in the NBA, a clash where the Wizards enter on a starkly different run than the Grizzlies; the Wizards have gone 4-9 all season, averaging 110.0 points while conceding 115.8, and are 23rd in the league, whereas the Grizzlies are 9-4, 8th place, averaging 120.6 points and allowing 111.7. At home the Wizards are 2-3, scoring 114.0 and giving up 114.2, and have lost their last five games, including a 140-144 loss to Detroit at home, a 101-114 defeat to Indiana away and a 111-122 loss to Detroit away. The Grizzlies are undefeated on the road, 6-0, with 121.3 points scored and 106.8 allowed, and have won three of their last five, notably a 129-110 win over Brooklyn at home and a 142-111 victory over New Orleans away, though they fell 118-123 to Denver at home. The teams are tied 5-5 in their ten meetings, the last meeting ending 116-112 in favour of Washington. Pythia gives the Grizzlies a 71% chance to win, projecting a 120-112 score and 232 total points, with a 6% chance of overtime, while the Wizards have a 29% chance to win. The model favours the Grizzlies and the projected total of 232 points sits just above the 232.0 line. The Wizards' recent five-game slide contrasts sharply with the Grizzlies' road dominance, making this a decisive test for the Wizards' season.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Washington Wizards win
29.0%fair 3.45
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Memphis Grizzlies win
71.0%fair 1.41
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Washington WizardsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWizards
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
103-110
103
110
-7
94avg 100
A26/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
111-121
111
121
-10
105avg 100
A28/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
95-79
95
79
+16
92avg 100
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
103-94
103
94
+9
101avg 100
A03/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
105-120
105
120
-15
96avg 100
H05/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
132-139
132
139
-7
126avg 100
A07/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
L
75-114
75
114
-39
54avg 100
A08/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
111-122
111
122
-11
96avg 100
A10/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
101-114
101
114
-13
83avg 100
A12/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
140-144 OT
140
144
-4
136avg 100
H13/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
23-35
24-26
35-30
42-34
27-25
23-33
19-29
22-26
29-20
28-13
16-20
28-33
32-26
19-9
24-26
32-37
29-31
24-25
20-27
32-28
27-38
35-39
38-34
19-25
17-32
23-33
16-24
32-31
26-37
29-35
24-19
25-26
25-29
27-22
24-37
32-33
29-31
29-30
31-27
223.3Avg total
107.6Scored
115.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)110.0115.8225.8-5.831%
Season at home (5)114.0114.2228.2-0.240%
Season away (8)107.5116.8224.2-9.225%
Last 10 (10)107.6115.7223.3-8.120%
Last 5 (5)111.8126.6238.4-14.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)111.4128.6240.0-17.20%
vs Similar (4)113.0109.8222.8+3.250%
vs Weaker (4)112.5106.2218.8+6.275%
This opponent (Memphis Grizzlies) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Memphis GrizzliesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGrizzlies
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#29
W
110-105
110
105
+5
104avg 105
A27/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
124-103
124
103
+21
121avg 105
A30/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
136-105
136
105
+31
135avg 105
H01/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
134-135 OT
134
135
-1
133avg 105
H03/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
103-107
103
107
-4
97avg 105
H05/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
L
97-128
97
128
-31
80avg 105
H07/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
118-102
118
102
+16
120avg 105
A10/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
L
118-123
118
123
-5
111avg 105
H12/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
142-111
142
111
+31
145avg 105
A14/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
129-110
129
110
+19
128avg 105
H15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-21
28-31
31-24
21-29
25-25
33-33
33-25
33-20
27-21
39-34
42-25
28-25
28-34
34-25
33-41
29-24
24-32
28-22
30-26
21-27
28-35
21-36
27-27
21-30
25-26
34-27
30-28
29-21
24-35
28-30
38-29
28-29
35-28
35-30
35-28
37-25
38-23
33-31
32-30
26-26
234.0Avg total
121.1Scored
112.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)120.6111.7232.3+8.969%
Season at home (7)120.0115.9235.9+4.143%
Season away (6)121.3106.8228.2+14.5100%
Last 10 (10)121.1112.9234.0+8.260%
Last 5 (5)120.8114.8235.6+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)109.8128.6238.5-18.88%
vs Similar (5)114.4127.4241.8-13.040%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)120.3112.4232.8+7.967%
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%0%1851%1902%1953%2004%2056%2108%2159%22011%22511%23010%2359%2408%2456%2504%2553%2602%2651%2701%2750%2800%285
1%1903%2006%2109%22011%2309%2406%2503%2601%2700%280
Pythia expects about 232 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 230-234 (11%).
Over/Under 222
Over 222
70.2%
Under 222
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 227
Over 227
59.9%
Under 227
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 232
Over 232
48.9%
Under 232
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Washington Wizards total 110.5
Over 110.5
55.2%
Under 110.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Washington Wizards total 114.5
Over 114.5
41.9%
Under 114.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Washington Wizards total 118.5
Over 118.5
29.7%
Under 118.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Memphis Grizzlies total 108.5
Over 108.5
83.2%
Under 108.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Memphis Grizzlies total 112.5
Over 112.5
73.2%
Under 112.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Memphis Grizzlies total 116.5
Over 116.5
60.9%
Under 116.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%4%7%9%0%-451%-421%-391%-362%-333%-303%-275%-246%-217%-188%-158%-129%-99%-68%-35%+07%+35%+64%+93%+122%+151%+181%+211%+241%+27
0%-451%-392%-333%-276%-218%-159%-98%-37%+34%+92%+151%+211%+27
Margin from Washington Wizards's side (positive = Washington Wizards win). Pythia's expected margin is -7.3; Washington Wizards win by 1+ in 25% of simulations.
Spread Washington Wizards -3
WAS -3
23.5%
MEM +3
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
WAS
No market prices yet.
MEM
No market prices yet.
Spread Washington Wizards 0
WAS 0
29.0%
MEM 0
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
WAS
No market prices yet.
MEM
No market prices yet.
Spread Washington Wizards +3
WAS +3
34.3%
MEM -3
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
WAS
No market prices yet.
MEM
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +4.8+4.8Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +1.7+1.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +4.8+4.8Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +1.7+1.7
Washington WizardsMemphis Grizzlies
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Washington WizardsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A26/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
69-59
69
59
+10
A28/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
51-46
51
46
+5
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A03/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
61-68
61
68
-7
H05/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
59-66
59
66
-7
A07/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
L
36-57
36
57
-21
A08/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
58-68
58
68
-10
A10/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A12/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
61-64
61
64
-3
H13/11
NBA
114.5Avg total
54.9Scored
59.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.462.2116.6-7.813%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.262.5117.7-7.48%-
Last 30 away (17)53.861.9115.8-8.118%-
Last 10 (10)54.959.6114.5-4.730%-
Last 5 (5)52.862.0114.8-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)54.265.0119.2-10.85%-
vs Similar (4)59.054.5113.5+4.550%-
vs Weaker (4)50.854.5105.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Memphis Grizzlies) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Memphis GrizzliesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#29
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A27/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A30/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
66-55
66
55
+11
H01/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
62-59
62
59
+3
H03/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
52-54
52
54
-2
H05/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
L
49-71
49
71
-22
H07/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
59-53
59
53
+6
A10/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
L
52-65
52
65
-13
H12/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
70-58
70
58
+12
A14/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
71-54
71
54
+17
H15/11
NBA
117.6Avg total
59.7Scored
57.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.261.0118.2-3.933%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.760.4117.1-3.725%-
Last 30 away (14)57.761.8119.5-4.143%-
Last 10 (10)59.757.9117.6+1.860%-
Last 5 (5)60.260.2120.4+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)54.363.9118.2-9.68%-
vs Similar (5)55.862.6118.4-6.80%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)60.857.2118.1+3.675%-
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Washington Wizardstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Washington Wizards: 116.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.831.9
56.2%
54.0%63.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.211.0
34.2%
35.1%33.0
🏀 Free throws24.519.6
80.0%
77.3%19.6
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Memphis Grizzliestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Memphis Grizzlies: 119.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.127.2
53.2%
54.0%54.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.615.5
40.2%
35.1%46.5
🏀 Free throws22.218.4
82.9%
77.3%18.4
They take 89.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Washington Wizards
LLLLLLWWLL
Memphis Grizzlies
WWLWLLLWWW
#23
League position
#8
-4.3
Net rating
+8.3
111.7
Offensive rating
116.1
116.0
Defensive rating
107.8
54.4%
Effective FG%
56.2%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
13.6%
Turnover %
14.6%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
35.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.25
34.2%
3-point %
40.2%
57.3%
Assist %
65.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 116.1Defence116.0 · 107.8Shooting54.4% · 56.2%3-point %34.2% · 40.2%Ball care13.6% · 14.6%Off. rebounds26.6% · 35.8%Free throws0.28 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Washington Wizards   ■ Memphis Grizzlies
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Washington Wizards wins
5
Memphis Grizzlies wins
DateGameScore
28/12/25Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies116-112
21/12/25Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards122-130
09/12/24Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies112-140
09/11/24Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards128-104
13/03/24Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards109-97
28/10/23Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies113-106
13/11/22Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies102-92
06/11/22Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards103-97
30/01/22Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards115-95
05/11/21Washington Wizards v Memphis Grizzlies115-87
Washington Wizardslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HDetroit Pistons140-144 OT
12/11/26AIndiana Pacers101-114
10/11/26ADetroit Pistons111-122
08/11/26AOklahoma City Thunder75-114
07/11/26AAtlanta Hawks132-139
05/11/26HAtlanta Hawks105-120
03/11/26AOrlando Magic103-94
30/10/26HCharlotte Hornets95-79
28/10/26ACleveland Cavaliers111-121
26/10/26ACharlotte Hornets103-110
Memphis Grizzlieslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HBrooklyn Nets129-110
14/11/26ANew Orleans Pelicans142-111
12/11/26HDenver Nuggets118-123
10/11/26AToronto Raptors118-102
07/11/26HOklahoma City Thunder97-128
05/11/26HIndiana Pacers103-107
03/11/26HNew Orleans Pelicans134-135 OT
01/11/26HSacramento Kings136-105
30/10/26APortland Trail Blazers124-103
27/10/26AUtah Jazz110-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Washington Wizards
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL31%
HomeWLWLL40%
AwayWLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1358
Win %31%40%25%
Points / game110.0114.0107.5
Allowed / game115.8114.2116.8
Point differential-5.8-0.2-9.2
Avg total225.8228.2224.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %8%20%0%
Memphis Grizzlies
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW69%
HomeLLLLW43%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %69%43%100%
Points / game120.6120.0121.3
Allowed / game111.7115.9106.8
Point differential+8.9+4.1+14.5
Avg total232.3235.9228.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%43%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)0% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %8%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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