Winthrop hosts Jackson State on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Winthrop the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win largely because of their 0-3 season record and a projected 91-69 scoreline that reflects a 91% chance of covering the home line of -7.5. Winthrop's first three games have yielded 89.0 points per game while allowing 94.7, and they have gone 0-1 at home, scoring 90.0 and conceding 93.0 in that lone outing; their last five games were 1-4, with losses to Kennesaw State 79-88, North Dakota 90-93, and Queens Royals 98-103. Jackson State has a 1-3 record, averaging 66.5 points and allowing 85.8, with a 1-3 road record and a 1-4 last-five showing a win over Tulane 87-85 and losses to Southern Miss 80-84 and Mississippi St. 57-98. The teams have met once before, with Winthrop winning 80-62 on 23 November 2025. Pythia projects a total of 160.1 points, an over probability of 38% against the 165.0 line, and a 1% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Jackson State can keep the score within the 7-point spread.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Winthrop winLost
97.2%fair 1.03
Best odds1.28
Implied77.5%
Edge+19.7pp
Jackson State winWon
2.8%fair 36.10
Best odds4.28
Implied22.5%
Edge-19.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Winthrop) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
52.6%
@ 1.40-13.5pp
Under 159
47.4%
@ 2.72+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Over/Under 164 · main lineActual: Under 164
Over 164
40.0%
@ 1.91-10.0pp
Under 164
60.0%
@ 2.00+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.78
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Under
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 169Actual: Under 169
Over 169
28.4%
@ 2.35-11.2pp
Under 169
71.6%
@ 1.54+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
📊 3. Team Totals
Winthrop total 82Actual: Winthrop under 82
Over 82
84.0%
Under 82
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Winthrop total 86 · main lineActual: Winthrop under 86
Over 86
71.8%
@ 1.87+21.8pp
Under 86
28.2%
@ 1.87-21.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Winthrop total 90Actual: Winthrop under 90
Over 90
56.2%
Under 90
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jackson State total 74Actual: Jackson State over 74
Over 74
28.3%
Under 74
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jackson State total 78 · main lineActual: Jackson State under 78
Over 78
16.3%
@ 1.85-34.1pp
Under 78
83.7%
@ 1.88+34.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Jackson State total 81.5Actual: Jackson State under 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Winthrop -12Actual: Jackson State +12
WINT -12
83.8%
@ 2.70+49.5pp
JACK +12
16.2%
@ 1.41-49.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WINT
Bet365
2.70
JACK
Bet365
1.41
Spread Winthrop -9 · main lineActual: Jackson State +9
WINT -9
89.3%
@ 2.10+39.5pp
JACK +9
10.7%
@ 1.92-39.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WINT
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.85
JACK
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.66
Spread Winthrop -6Actual: Jackson State +6
WINT -6
93.3%
@ 1.70+36.9pp
JACK +6
6.7%
@ 2.20-36.9pp
Best 5 market prices
WINT
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
JACK
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.10
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
WinthropJackson State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Jackson State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Jackson StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A28/02
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H04/03
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H06/03
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H11/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A12/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#26
L
24-38
24
38
-14
A03/11
NCAA
Tulane
#219
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A06/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#98
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A10/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A12/11
NCAA
75.8Avg total
35.1Scored
40.7Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 84.5
Last 30 (30)
37.3
42.7
80.0
-5.5
37%
33%
Last 30 at home (12)
42.7
41.7
84.3
+1.0
58%
42%
Last 30 away (18)
33.7
43.4
77.1
-9.8
22%
28%
Last 10 (10)
35.1
40.7
75.8
-5.6
30%
30%
Last 5 (5)
31.2
40.4
71.6
-9.2
20%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)
36.5
42.5
79.0
-6.0
35%
27%
vs Similar (2)
33.5
49.0
82.5
-15.5
0%
50%
vs Weaker (2)
50.5
39.5
90.0
+11.0
100%
100%
This opponent (Winthrop) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Jackson State win
WINT win
no forecast
@ 1.47
JACK win
no forecast
@ 2.72
2nd half Spread Winthrop -3.5 · main lineActual: Jackson State +3.5
WINT -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
JACK +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 84.5 · main lineActual: Over 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Jackson State (regulation)
WINT
no forecast
@ 1.50
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
JACK
no forecast
@ 2.75
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Winthrop -15
76.5%
3.70
Bet365
3.70
-
-
-
-
+51.2pp
Lost
Winthrop -14
79.1%
3.30
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
-
+51.0pp
Lost
Winthrop -13
81.6%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+50.5pp
Lost
Winthrop -12
83.8%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+49.5pp
Lost
Winthrop -15.5
74.4%
3.48
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.20
-
-
-
+47.6pp
Lost
Winthrop -13.5
79.7%
2.88
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.67
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
Winthrop -14.5
77.1%
3.12
Bet365
3.35
Betano
2.90
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
Winthrop -12.5
82.0%
2.62
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+46.7pp
Lost
Winthrop -11.5
84.1%
2.41
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+45.6pp
Lost
Winthrop -11
85.8%
2.41
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.32
-
-
-
+44.6pp
Lost
Winthrop -10.5
86.1%
2.23
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.10
-
-
+43.1pp
Lost
Winthrop -10
87.7%
2.19
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.13
-
-
-
+42.6pp
Lost
Winthrop -9.5
87.9%
2.05
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
1.98
-
-
+40.6pp
Lost
Winthrop -9
89.3%
1.96
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Winthrop -8.5
89.5%
1.85
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
+37.2pp
Lost
Winthrop -6
93.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Lost
Winthrop -8
90.8%
1.85
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
+36.3pp
Lost
Jackson State under 79
86.0%
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+36.0pp
Won
Winthrop -5
94.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+35.5pp
Lost
Winthrop -5.5
93.4%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.55
-
-
+35.3pp
Lost
Jackson State under 79.5
86.4%
1.74
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.62
-
-
+34.9pp
Won
Winthrop -7.5
91.0%
1.77
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
+34.4pp
Lost
Jackson State under 75.5
75.9%
2.18
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Lost
Jackson State under 74.5
72.6%
2.35
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
Jackson State under 78
83.7%
1.86
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+34.1pp
Won
Winthrop -7
92.2%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.75
Pinnacle
1.64
+33.8pp
Lost
Winthrop -4
95.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Winthrop -4.5
94.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+32.7pp
Lost
Winthrop -6.5
92.3%
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.71
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.59
-
+32.1pp
Lost
Jackson State under 76.5
78.8%
1.98
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Jackson State under 77.5
81.6%
1.89
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.84
+31.3pp
Won
Jackson State under 78.5
84.1%
1.83
BetVictor
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+31.1pp
Won
Winthrop -3.5
95.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Winthrop -3
96.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+30.3pp
Lost
Winthrop -2.5
96.0%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Lost
Jackson State under 80.5
88.4%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Won
Winthrop -2
96.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Winthrop (regulation)
96.7%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.24
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Winthrop -1.5
96.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
Winthrop -1
97.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Winthrop +1.5
97.6%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Winthrop over 84.5
76.1%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Winthrop over 86
71.8%
1.85
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
+21.8pp
Lost
Winthrop over 85.5
72.8%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.75
+21.1pp
Lost
Winthrop win
97.2%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
SBO
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+19.7pp
Lost
Winthrop +2.5
98.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Winthrop over 83.5
79.1%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
Winthrop over 82.5
81.9%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Lost
Winthrop over 80.5
86.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Winthrop over 81.5
84.4%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Lost
Winthrop over 77.5
92.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Winthrop over 76.5
93.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Winthrop +7.5
99.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Under 170
73.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Under 169
71.6%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Under 171
75.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Under 172
77.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Winthrop over 75.5
94.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Lost
Under 168.5
70.1%
1.54
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 173
79.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 172.5
78.1%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 169.5
72.2%
1.48
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
76.2%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 173.5
79.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 170.5
74.3%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Winthrop over 73.5
96.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Winthrop +12.5
99.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Winthrop over 71.5
97.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.3%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Winthrop over 69.5
98.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Under 174.5
81.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 179.5
88.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Over 139.5
89.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Over 144.5
83.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Over 149.5
74.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Lost
Jackson State over 60.5
79.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.7pp
Won
Jackson State over 61.5
76.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.3pp
Won
Jackson State over 62.5
72.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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