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Xavier vs Eastern Michigan Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 88-70
Projected total 157.4
Final 76-53
34-25 42-28
Position#39
Record1-0
FormLLWLW
Points / game97.0
Allowed / game52.0
Xavier 🏆
USA
Vs
94%
■ XAVI 94%■ EAST 6%
Pythia win probability
Eastern Michigan
USA
Position#263
Record1-0
FormLLLLW
Points / game71.0
Allowed / game70.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Xavier faces Eastern Michigan on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the model rates Xavier as the clear favourite, giving them a 94% chance to win and projecting an 88-70 victory. Xavier has played one game this season, winning 1-0, scoring 97.0 points per game and allowing 52.0, while Eastern Michigan also has a 1-0 record, averaging 71.0 points and conceding 70.0. Xavier's sole home outing was a 97-52 win over Mount St. Mary's, and their last five games show 2 wins and 3 losses. Eastern Michigan's single road game was a 71-70 win over Coastal Carolina, and their last five games contain 1 win and 4 losses. No head-to-head meetings are recorded. The Pythia model assigns a 31% probability that Xavier covers the -23.0 spread and a 49% chance of the over on the 157.5 total, with a 2% chance of overtime. The projected score of 88-70 suggests a decisive win for Xavier, and the 157.4 projected total points sits just below the over line.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Xavier winWon
93.6%fair 1.07
Best odds1.02
Implied93.6%
Edge-0.0pp
Eastern Michigan winLost
6.4%fair 15.60
Best odds26.00
Implied6.4%
Edge+0.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

XavierUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
W
96-88
96
88
+8
H14/02
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
89-92 OT
89
92
-3
H17/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
84-94
84
94
-10
A26/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
68-77
68
77
-9
H04/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
89-87
89
87
+2
A11/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
68-93
68
93
-25
A12/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#273
W
97-52
97
52
+45
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
51-35
45-53
42-43
39-38
28-47
47-33
34-47
50-47
38-39
53-45
32-33
36-44
32-44
46-47
38-38
51-49
30-50
38-43
51-16
46-36
167.3Avg total
83.5Scored
83.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)97.052.0149.0+45.0100%
Season at home (1)97.052.0149.0+45.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.583.8167.3-0.340%
Last 5 (5)80.080.0160.0+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)76.682.5159.1-5.927%
vs Similar (13)82.480.8163.2+1.662%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)96.563.0159.5+33.5100%
This opponent (Eastern Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Eastern MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H03/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
60-65
60
65
-5
A07/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
91-95
91
95
-4
A12/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
62-76
62
76
-14
H14/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
66-54
66
54
+12
H17/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
75-94
75
94
-19
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
64-74
64
74
-10
H24/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
67-72
67
72
-5
A03/03
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H06/03
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#386
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
27-31
37-35
33-36
27-29
47-40
44-55
33-28
29-48
35-27
31-27
29-51
46-43
22-43
42-31
27-43
40-29
31-28
38-49
34-37
37-33
143.2Avg total
68.9Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)71.070.0141.0+1.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)71.070.0141.0+1.0100%
Last 10 (10)68.974.3143.2-5.420%
Last 5 (5)69.277.4146.6-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)69.177.4146.4-8.312%
vs Similar (11)71.573.4144.8-1.945%
vs Weaker (3)78.059.0137.0+19.0100%
This opponent (Xavier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
68.5%
@ 1.63+0.1pp
Under 149.5
31.5%
@ 3.05-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.63
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.82
Over/Under 154.5 · main lineActual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
56.8%
@ 2.01+7.0pp
Under 154.5
43.2%
@ 2.12-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
2.01
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.64
Under
Bet365
2.12
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.70
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
44.5%
@ 2.20+1.9pp
Under 159.5
55.5%
@ 1.62-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60

📊 3. Team Totals

Xavier total 86Actual: Xavier under 86
Over 86
56.4%
Under 86
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Xavier total 90 · main lineActual: Xavier under 90
Over 90
39.7%
@ 1.85-10.7pp
Under 90
60.3%
@ 1.88+10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Xavier total 94Actual: Xavier under 94
Over 94
24.8%
Under 94
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastern Michigan total 61Actual: Eastern Michigan under 61
Over 61
81.7%
Under 61
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastern Michigan total 65 · main lineActual: Eastern Michigan under 65
Over 65
68.8%
@ 1.85+18.8pp
Under 65
31.2%
@ 1.85-18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Eastern Michigan total 69Actual: Eastern Michigan under 69
Over 69
52.9%
Under 69
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Xavier -25.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +25.5
XAVI -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
EAST +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.71
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.07
EAST
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Be
1.68
Betano
1.62
Spread Xavier -22.5 · main lineActual: Xavier -22.5
XAVI -22.5
33.3%
@ 1.85-18.3pp
EAST +22.5
66.7%
@ 2.05+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
Bet365
1.68
EAST
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.83
Spread Xavier -19.5Actual: Xavier -19.5
XAVI -19.5
43.5%
@ 1.52-19.0pp
EAST +19.5
56.5%
@ 2.60+19.0pp
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.45
EAST
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: -4.6-4.62nd half2nd half: +1.6+1.62nd half: -0.8-0.8
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: -4.6-4.62nd half2nd half: +1.6+1.62nd half: -0.8-0.8
XavierEastern Michigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
XavierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marquette
#290
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H14/02
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H17/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A21/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H04/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A07/03
NCAA
Marquette
#290
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A12/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#273
W
51-16
51
16
+35
H03/11
NCAA
76.8Avg total
37.6Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)37.338.375.6-1.037%67%
Last 30 at home (18)39.735.775.3+4.056%61%
Last 30 away (12)33.842.276.0-8.58%75%
Last 10 (10)37.639.276.8-1.620%80%
Last 5 (5)36.636.272.8+0.420%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)36.540.476.9-3.933%67%
vs Similar (13)36.738.074.7-1.331%69%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)47.524.572.0+23.0100%50%
This opponent (Eastern Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Eastern MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
27-31
27
31
-4
H03/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A12/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H17/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
29-51
29
51
-22
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
22-43
22
43
-21
H24/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A03/03
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H06/03
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#386
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A03/11
NCAA
68.2Avg total
31.8Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)33.035.468.4-2.437%33%
Last 30 at home (13)32.931.864.8+1.154%23%
Last 30 away (17)33.138.271.2-5.124%41%
Last 10 (10)31.836.468.2-4.640%20%
Last 5 (5)28.640.469.0-11.820%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)31.237.969.1-6.819%38%
vs Similar (11)35.033.668.6+1.455%36%
vs Weaker (3)35.328.764.0+6.767%0%
This opponent (Xavier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Xavier win
XAVI win
no forecast
@ 1.06
EAST win
no forecast
@ 9.00
1st half Spread Xavier -12.5 · main lineActual: Eastern Michigan +12.5
XAVI -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
EAST +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Xavier 1st half total 44 · main lineActual: Xavier under 44
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Eastern Michigan 1st half total 32 · main lineActual: Eastern Michigan under 32
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 71Actual: Under 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Xavier -13.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +13.5
XAVI -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
EAST +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Xavier -11.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +11.5
XAVI -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
EAST +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Spread Xavier -14.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +14.5
XAVI -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
EAST +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Xavier -10.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +10.5
XAVI -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
EAST +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.27
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Xavier -15.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +15.5
XAVI -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
EAST +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Xavier -9.5Actual: Eastern Michigan +9.5
XAVI -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
EAST +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Xavier (regulation)
XAVI
no forecast
@ 1.08
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
EAST
no forecast
@ 11.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
XAVI win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
EAST win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: XAVI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: EAST leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Eastern Michigan over 63.573.4%1.69
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.45		---+24.3ppLost
Eastern Michigan over 62.576.5%1.59
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.38		---+24.2ppLost
Eastern Michigan over 6472.4%1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84		----+22.1ppLost
Eastern Michigan +2574.9%1.73
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73		---+21.2ppWon
Eastern Michigan +24.572.8%1.78
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
Betano
1.75		--+20.5ppWon
Eastern Michigan +2472.0%1.83
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		--+20.1ppWon
Xavier under 93.572.8%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+10.1ppWon
Xavier under 94.576.0%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+9.9ppWon
Eastern Michigan over 61.579.5%1.30
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.29		---+9.1ppLost
Xavier under 100.590.5%1.13
Bet365
1.13		----+8.2ppWon
Eastern Michigan over 59.584.7%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+6.9ppLost
Eastern Michigan over 57.589.0%1.12
Bet365
1.12		----+5.9ppLost
Eastern Michigan over 56.590.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+5.2ppLost
Eastern Michigan over 53.594.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+5.1ppLost
Eastern Michigan over 51.596.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+5.0ppWon
Eastern Michigan over 55.592.3%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+4.8ppLost
Xavier (regulation)92.6%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+3.8ppWon
Over 131.594.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.7ppLost
Under 181.593.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.9ppWon
Over 136.590.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+0.5ppLost
Xavier win93.6%1.02
Betano
1.02		-----0.0ppWon
Xavier over 75.588.8%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----0.2ppWon
Over 148.570.6%1.30
Bet365
1.30		-----0.8ppLost
Xavier over 76.586.8%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----1.2ppLost
Under 176.588.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.2ppWon
Over 146.574.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----1.4ppLost
Over 141.583.6%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----1.4ppLost
Xavier over 77.584.5%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----2.1ppLost
Xavier over 78.582.0%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----2.4ppLost
Xavier -2.591.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.6ppWon
Xavier -3.589.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----3.0ppWon
Under 171.581.0%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----3.4ppWon
Under 166.571.6%1.23
Bet365
1.23		-----3.7ppWon
Xavier over 79.579.2%1.12
Bet365
1.12		-----3.9ppLost
Xavier over 80.576.2%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----4.3ppLost
Xavier over 81.573.0%1.18
Bet365
1.18		-----5.9ppLost
Xavier -7.581.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----7.6ppWon
Xavier -8.579.3%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----9.4ppWon
Eastern Michigan under 76.575.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----10.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Xavier wins
0
Eastern Michigan wins
No previous meetings.
Xavierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HMount St. Mary's97-52
12/03/26AUconn68-93
11/03/26AMarquette89-87
07/03/26AVillanova78-91
04/03/26HSeton Hall68-77
28/02/26HGeorgetown91-84
26/02/26AProvidence84-94
21/02/26AButler75-80
17/02/26HVillanova89-92 OT
14/02/26HMarquette96-88
Eastern Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26ACoastal Carolina71-70
06/03/26HBowling Green69-77
03/03/26ABuffalo67-72
24/02/26HMiami (Ohio)64-74
21/02/26AToledo75-94
17/02/26HCentral Michigan66-54
14/02/26HWestern Michigan62-76
12/02/26AKent State91-95
07/02/26AAppalachian State60-65
03/02/26HAkron64-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Xavier
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game97.097.0-
Allowed / game52.052.0-
Point differential+45.0+45.0-
Avg total149.0149.0-
Over 154.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Eastern Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game71.0-71.0
Allowed / game70.0-70.0
Point differential+1.0-+1.0
Avg total141.0-141.0
Over 154.50%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier110100%97.052.0+45.0
2 Uconn110100%86.046.0+40.0
3 Butler220100%97.562.5+35.0
4 Marquette110100%78.043.0+35.0
5 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
6 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
7 Creighton220100%79.558.0+21.5
8 Seton Hall220100%66.551.0+15.5
9 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
10 DePaul220100%78.569.0+9.5
11 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron110100%75.061.0+14.0
2 Miami (Ohio)110100%86.077.0+9.0
3 Ohio110100%86.077.0+9.0
4 Central Michigan110100%83.078.0+5.0
5 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
6 Eastern Michigan110100%71.070.0+1.0
7 Western Michigan21150%74.056.5+17.5
8 UMass21150%63.065.5-2.5
9 Kent State1010%75.085.0-10.0
10 Northern Illinois2020%81.091.5-10.5
11 Ball State1010%55.067.0-12.0
12 Toledo2020%65.581.0-15.5
13 Buffalo2020%63.086.0-23.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Xavier344276
Eastern Michigan252853
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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