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AEK Larnaca vs Morphou Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 27 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#1
Record5-0
FormWWLWL
Points / game89.6
Allowed / game69.6
AEK Larnaca
Cyprus
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.8/10
Above normal
5.0/10
Around normal
Morphou
Cyprus
Position#8
Record1-4
FormLLWLL
Points / game70.0
Allowed / game83.0
CyprusDivision ARound 13· Kition Athletic Center
Other2026-27
Meetings · AEK Larnaca v Morphou
27 Dec 2026
ALA v MORP
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
ALA91
MORP72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Larnaca win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Morphou win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK LarnacaCyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarnaca
Date
Competition
Apollon
#7
W
90-56
90
56
+34
92avg 80
A11/10
Division A
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
80-94
80
94
-14
69avg 80
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
83-79
83
79
+4
84avg 80
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
99-93
99
93
+6
100avg 80
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
85-74
85
74
+11
65avg 80
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
85-69
85
69
+16
78avg 80
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
87-61
87
61
+26
94avg 80
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
103-78
103
78
+25
no box
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
L
76-78
76
78
-2
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-14
23-12
18-13
23-17
14-29
20-19
31-17
15-29
30-18
19-20
21-23
13-18
32-21
25-30
22-20
20-22
18-16
30-22
15-21
22-15
23-20
26-22
22-11
14-16
27-10
17-16
30-14
13-21
23-21
11-27
11-14
19-19
29-10
25-18
21-33
28-17
24-12
22-23
17-26
13-17
161.5Avg total
85.2Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)89.669.6159.2+20.0100%
Season at home (2)85.070.0155.0+15.0100%
Season away (3)92.769.3162.0+23.3100%
Last 10 (10)85.276.3161.5+8.970%
Last 5 (5)83.073.4156.4+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.279.5152.8-6.225%
vs Similar (7)78.076.6154.6+1.457%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)88.276.0164.2+12.289%
This opponent (Morphou) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MorphouCyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMorphou
Date
Competition
AEL
#3
L
75-92
75
92
-17
64avg 59
H24/01
Division A
Apoel BC
#4
L
69-75
69
75
-6
51avg 59
A02/02
Division A
ETHA Engomi
#9
W
93-91
93
91
+2
84avg 59
H08/02
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
73-96
73
96
-23
57avg 59
A14/02
Division A
Paralimni
#5
L
73-89
73
89
-16
68avg 59
A07/03
Division A
ETHA Engomi
#6
L
65-76
65
76
-11
23avg 59
A09/10
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
82-91
82
91
-9
75avg 59
A18/10
Division A
Anorthosis
#9
W
76-74
76
74
+2
70avg 59
H25/10
Division A
AEL
#3
L
49-71
49
71
-22
35avg 59
A30/10
Division A
AEK Larnaca
#1
L
78-103
78
103
-25
no box
H08/11
Division A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-26
26-16
17-20
18-30
17-24
20-23
18-17
14-11
24-21
27-21
22-24
20-25
12-32
19-15
20-23
22-26
21-24
16-19
17-24
19-22
17-19
14-9
17-22
17-26
22-24
21-19
18-35
21-13
24-20
16-20
23-22
13-12
11-20
15-22
13-19
10-10
10-29
18-25
33-21
17-28
159.1Avg total
73.3Scored
85.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)70.083.0153.0-13.020%
Season at home (2)77.088.5165.5-11.550%
Season away (3)65.379.3144.7-14.00%
Last 10 (10)73.385.8159.1-12.520%
Last 5 (5)70.083.0153.0-13.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)74.888.3163.1-13.513%
vs Similar (6)74.875.0149.8-0.250%
vs Weaker (2)92.588.5181.0+4.0100%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.5+7.5Q1: -6.7-6.7Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -3.2-3.2
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.5+7.5Q1: -6.7-6.7Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -3.2-3.2
AEK LarnacaMorphou
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Apollon
#7
W
49-26
49
26
+23
A11/10
Division A
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
54-28
54
28
+26
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
84.4Avg total
46.4Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.940.184.0+3.850%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.739.485.1+6.457%-
Last 30 away (16)42.340.783.0+1.644%-
Last 10 (10)46.438.084.4+8.480%-
Last 5 (5)45.435.881.2+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.542.881.2-4.225%-
vs Similar (7)40.339.179.4+1.129%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)46.939.686.5+7.367%-
This opponent (Morphou) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MorphouLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AEL
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H24/01
Division A
Apoel BC
#4
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A02/02
Division A
ETHA Engomi
#9
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H08/02
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A14/02
Division A
Paralimni
#5
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A07/03
Division A
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
31-28
31
28
+3
A09/10
Division A
Keravnos
#2
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A18/10
Division A
Anorthosis
#9
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H25/10
Division A
AEL
#3
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A30/10
Division A
AEK Larnaca
#1
L
28-54
28
54
-26
H08/11
Division A
79.2Avg total
36.4Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (23)36.143.579.6-7.417%-
Last 30 at home (11)36.542.579.1-6.027%-
Last 30 away (12)35.744.380.0-8.78%-
Last 10 (10)36.442.879.2-6.420%-
Last 5 (5)33.641.475.0-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)35.642.878.4-7.220%-
vs Similar (6)33.042.875.8-9.80%-
vs Weaker (2)49.050.599.5-1.550%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Larnaca: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.3 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.722.7
51.9%
52.0%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.07.4
35.2%
34.4%22.2
🏀 Free throws21.016.1
76.7%
72.9%16.1
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Morphoutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Morphou: 69.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.3 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.817.8
47.1%
52.0%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.17.4
28.4%
34.4%22.2
🏀 Free throws16.411.9
72.6%
72.9%11.9
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Larnaca
LWLWWWWWLW
Morphou
LLWLLLLWLL
#1
League position
#8
+10.3
Net rating
-6.8
99.1
Offensive rating
85.6
88.8
Defensive rating
92.4
52.2%
Effective FG%
45.2%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
12.4%
Turnover %
14.9%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.2%
3-point %
28.4%
66.8%
Assist %
65.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 85.6Defence88.8 · 92.4Shooting52.2% · 45.2%3-point %35.2% · 28.4%Ball care12.4% · 14.9%Free throws0.32 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)70% · 20%
■ AEK Larnaca   ■ Morphou
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
AEK Larnaca wins
0
Morphou wins
DateGameScore
08/11/26Morphou v AEK Larnaca78-103
17/01/26AEK Larnaca v Morphou91-72
01/11/25Morphou v AEK Larnaca71-82
AEK Larnacalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AWurzburg76-78
08/11/26AMorphou103-78
04/11/26AIraklis64-81
31/10/26HETHA Engomi87-61
27/10/26AMZT Skopje85-69
24/10/26AParalimni85-74
21/10/26HTartu Ulikool99-93
18/10/26HApoel BC83-79
14/10/26ADziki Warszawa80-94
11/10/26AApollon90-56
Morphoulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HAEK Larnaca78-103
30/10/26AAEL49-71
25/10/26HAnorthosis76-74
18/10/26AKeravnos82-91
09/10/26AETHA Engomi65-76
07/03/26AParalimni73-89
14/02/26AKeravnos73-96
08/02/26HETHA Engomi93-91
02/02/26AApoel BC69-75
24/01/26HAEL75-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Larnaca
Division A 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.685.092.7
Allowed / game69.670.069.3
Point differential+20.0+15.0+23.3
Avg total159.2155.0162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Morphou
Division A 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL20%
HomeWL50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%50%0%
Points / game70.077.065.3
Allowed / game83.088.579.3
Point differential-13.0-11.5-14.0
Avg total153.0165.5144.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 AEK Larnaca550100%89.669.6+20.0
2 Keravnos550100%90.075.2+14.8
3 AEL54180%77.870.0+7.8
4 Paralimni64267%84.779.2+5.5
5 Apoel BC63350%77.375.2+2.2
6 ETHA Engomi63350%69.772.3-2.7
7 Apollon62433%70.079.3-9.3
8 Morphou51420%70.083.0-13.0
9 Anorthosis5050%75.082.2-7.2
10 Achilleas K.5050%74.491.6-17.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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