PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Alabama hosts Kennesaw State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Alabama as the clear favourite at 95% to win over Kennesaw State's 5% chance, a reflection of Alabama's undefeated 3-0 season record, 102.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed per game, while Kennesaw State also sits at 3-0 with 91.7 points per game and 68.3 allowed per game. Alabama's three home games have yielded a 3-0 record, 102.0 points scored and 76.0 allowed, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by victories over Oakland 109-68, Arkansas State 101-86 and Sam Houston St. 96-74, all at home. Kennesaw State's last five games include four wins and one loss, with wins over Winthrop 88-79, Austin Peay 71-69 and Midway 116-57, all at home. The teams have met once before, with Alabama winning 92-81 on 21 December 2025. Pythia projects a 95-76 scoreline for Alabama, a total of 171.5 points, and a 1% chance of overtime, with Alabama covering the spread and the over probability implied by the model. The game ends with Alabama's dominant 95-76 projected victory.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 102.0 | 76.0 | 178.0 | +26.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 102.0 | 76.0 | 178.0 | +26.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 89.7 | 78.4 | 168.1 | +11.3 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 94.6 | 76.6 | 171.2 | +18.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 76.3 | 95.3 | 171.7 | -19.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 91.2 | 84.9 | 176.1 | +6.4 | 71% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 94.8 | 76.3 | 171.2 | +18.5 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 91.7 | 68.3 | 160.0 | +23.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 91.7 | 68.3 | 160.0 | +23.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 82.2 | 73.7 | 155.9 | +8.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.0 | 67.6 | 149.6 | +14.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 64.0 | 73.0 | 137.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (17) | 76.2 | 74.4 | 150.6 | +1.8 | 59% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 87.8 | 75.8 | 163.6 | +12.1 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 44.4 | 37.1 | 81.5 | +7.4 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (20) | 47.6 | 34.9 | 82.5 | +12.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 away (10) | 38.0 | 41.5 | 79.5 | -3.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 44.4 | 36.7 | 81.1 | +7.7 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 49.0 | 32.8 | 81.8 | +16.2 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 42.0 | 44.0 | 86.0 | -2.0 | 67% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 43.9 | 39.6 | 83.5 | +4.4 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 45.5 | 32.8 | 78.3 | +12.8 | 85% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.1 | 35.6 | 73.7 | +2.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 42.5 | 33.3 | 75.9 | +9.2 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.6 | 37.9 | 71.5 | -4.3 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.6 | 33.0 | 69.6 | +3.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 31.0 | 67.2 | +5.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 27.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | -6.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (17) | 35.7 | 37.2 | 72.9 | -1.5 | 47% | - |
| vs Weaker (12) | 42.3 | 33.5 | 75.8 | +8.8 | 58% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 | Alabama v Kennesaw State | 92-81 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Oakland | 109-68 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Arkansas State | 101-86 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Sam Houston St. | 96-74 |
| 27/03/26 | A | Michigan | 77-90 |
| 23/03/26 | H | Texas Tech | 90-65 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Hofstra | 90-70 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Ole Miss | 79-80 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Auburn | 96-84 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Georgia | 88-98 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Tennessee | 71-69 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Winthrop | 88-79 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Austin Peay | 71-69 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Midway | 116-57 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Gonzaga | 64-73 |
| 15/03/26 | A | Louisiana Tech | 71-60 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Sam Houston St. | 79-73 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Western Kentucky | 96-87 |
| 07/03/26 | A | New Mexico State | 76-79 |
| 06/03/26 | A | UTEP | 71-78 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Delaware | 90-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 102.0 | 102.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 76.0 | 76.0 | - |
| Point differential | +26.0 | +26.0 | - |
| Avg total | 178.0 | 178.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 91.7 | 91.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 68.3 | 68.3 | - |
| Point differential | +23.3 | +23.3 | - |
| Avg total | 160.0 | 160.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 33% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 66.7 | +36.3 |
| 5 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 6 |  Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 59.7 | +31.0 |
| 7 |  Auburn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 56.0 | +27.5 |
| 8 |  Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 | Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 11 |  Florida | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 65.3 | +16.7 |
| 12 |  Georgia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.3 | +12.7 |
| 13 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 14 |  Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 68.3 | +16.3 |
| 15 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 75.3 | +5.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Florida International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.5 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.3 | 61.3 | +24.0 |
| 3 | Kennesaw State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 68.3 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Western Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 63.5 | +20.8 |
| 5 |  Louisiana Tech | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 70.3 | 60.7 | +9.7 |
| 6 |  Sam Houston St. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 87.0 | 77.3 | +9.7 |
| 7 |  Middle Tenn. St. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.3 | 76.7 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Liberty | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 63.0 | +22.0 |
| 9 |  UTEP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 77.5 | 72.0 | +5.5 |
| 10 |  New Mexico State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 70.5 | 87.5 | -17.0 |
| 11 |  Delaware | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.7 | 62.7 | +14.0 |
| 12 |  Jacksonville State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 78.0 | +5.0 |
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