PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Alabama hosts Kennesaw State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Alabama as the clear favourite at 95% to win over Kennesaw State's 5% chance, a reflection of Alabama's undefeated 3-0 season record, 102.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed per game, while Kennesaw State also sits at 3-0 with 91.7 points per game and 68.3 allowed per game. Alabama's three home games have yielded a 3-0 record, 102.0 points scored and 76.0 allowed, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by victories over Oakland 109-68, Arkansas State 101-86 and Sam Houston St. 96-74, all at home. Kennesaw State's last five games include four wins and one loss, with wins over Winthrop 88-79, Austin Peay 71-69 and Midway 116-57, all at home. The teams have met once before, with Alabama winning 92-81 on 21 December 2025. Pythia projects a 95-76 scoreline for Alabama, a total of 171.5 points, and a 1% chance of overtime, with Alabama covering the spread and the over probability implied by the model. The game ends with Alabama's dominant 95-76 projected victory.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 97.0 | 76.0 | 173.0 | +21.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (4) | 97.0 | 76.0 | 173.0 | +21.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 90.8 | 79.1 | 169.9 | +11.7 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 93.0 | 78.8 | 171.8 | +14.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 76.3 | 95.3 | 171.7 | -19.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (14) | 91.2 | 84.9 | 176.1 | +6.4 | 71% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 93.7 | 77.9 | 171.6 | +15.8 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 95.5 | 64.8 | 160.2 | +30.8 | 100% |
| Season at home (4) | 95.5 | 64.8 | 160.2 | +30.8 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 83.9 | 70.9 | 154.8 | +13.0 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 89.2 | 66.4 | 155.6 | +22.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 64.0 | 73.0 | 137.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 76.6 | 74.8 | 151.3 | +1.8 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 87.7 | 74.1 | 161.8 | +13.6 | 69% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.8 | 37.4 | 81.3 | +6.4 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (20) | 46.8 | 35.4 | 82.2 | +11.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 away (10) | 38.0 | 41.5 | 79.5 | -3.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 45.4 | 35.5 | 80.9 | +9.9 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.8 | 33.4 | 80.2 | +13.4 | 100% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 42.0 | 44.0 | 86.0 | -2.0 | 67% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 43.9 | 39.6 | 83.5 | +4.4 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 44.2 | 33.6 | 77.8 | +10.5 | 85% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.4 | 35.6 | 74.0 | +2.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 43.2 | 33.3 | 76.5 | +9.9 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.6 | 37.9 | 71.5 | -4.3 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.9 | 33.3 | 70.2 | +3.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 30.2 | 70.0 | +9.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 27.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | -6.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 36.1 | 37.4 | 73.6 | -1.3 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 42.1 | 33.5 | 75.6 | +8.5 | 54% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 | Alabama v Kennesaw State | 92-81 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Seton Hall | 82-76 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Oakland | 109-68 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Arkansas State | 101-86 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Sam Houston St. | 96-74 |
| 27/03/26 | A | Michigan | 77-90 |
| 23/03/26 | H | Texas Tech | 90-65 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Hofstra | 90-70 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Ole Miss | 79-80 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Auburn | 96-84 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Georgia | 88-98 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Hannibal-LaGrange | 107-54 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Winthrop | 88-79 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Austin Peay | 71-69 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Midway | 116-57 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Gonzaga | 64-73 |
| 15/03/26 | A | Louisiana Tech | 71-60 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Sam Houston St. | 79-73 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Western Kentucky | 96-87 |
| 07/03/26 | A | New Mexico State | 76-79 |
| 06/03/26 | A | UTEP | 71-78 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 97.0 | 97.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 76.0 | 76.0 | - |
| Point differential | +21.0 | +21.0 | - |
| Avg total | 173.0 | 173.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 75% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 95.5 | 95.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 64.8 | 64.8 | - |
| Point differential | +30.8 | +30.8 | - |
| Avg total | 160.2 | 160.2 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 3 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 4 |  LSU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.8 | 59.5 | +31.2 |
| 5 |  Vanderbilt | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 |
| 6 |  South Carolina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 56.5 | +22.2 |
| 7 | Alabama | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 76.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Florida | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 |
| 9 |  Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 |
| 11 |  Mississippi St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 67.5 | +19.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 67.8 | +15.5 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.8 | 63.8 | +12.0 |
| 14 |  Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 |
| 15 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 16 |  Auburn | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.7 | 64.0 | +14.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 64.8 | +30.8 |
| 2 |  Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.3 | 61.3 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  Florida International | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 71.0 | +20.7 |
| 4 |  Western Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 63.5 | +20.8 |
| 5 |  Middle Tenn. St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.8 | 76.2 | +4.5 |
| 6 |  Liberty | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 64.0 | +17.3 |
| 7 |  UTEP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 71.7 | 67.3 | +4.3 |
| 8 |  Delaware | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 73.5 | 61.5 | +12.0 |
| 9 |  Louisiana Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 63.2 | +6.5 |
| 10 |  Jacksonville State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 75.5 | +4.5 |
| 11 |  Sam Houston St. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 85.0 | +1.8 |
| 12 |  New Mexico State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 66.3 | 78.3 | -12.0 |
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