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Alftanes vs Grindavik Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:15
Projected 99-93
Projected total 191.3
Scheduled
Position#2
Record5-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game107.0
Allowed / game91.7
Alftanes
Iceland
Vs
70%
30%
■ ALFT 70%■ GRIN 30%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.8/10
Above normal
5.4/10
Around normal
Grindavik
Iceland
Position#6
Record4-2
FormLWWWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game87.3
IcelandPremier leagueRound 7· Ungmennafélag Álftaness
Other2026-27
Meetings · Alftanes v Grindavik
19 Nov 2026
ALFT v GRIN
upcoming
16 Oct 2025
ALFT70
GRIN79
14 Nov 2024
ALFT90
GRIN88
12 Oct 2023
ALFT86
GRIN79
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Alftanes host Grindavik on 19 November 2026 in the Premier league, with the Pythia model designating Alftanes as the favourite and predicting a 70% chance of a home win and a 30% chance for Grindavik, projecting a 99-93 score for a total of 191.3 points. Alftanes finish the season 5-1, averaging 107.0 points scored and 91.7 points allowed, sitting in second place, while at home they are 2-1 with 111.7 points per game and 96.3 allowed; their last five games include four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 108-105 victory over Tindastoll. Grindavik are 4-2 overall, scoring 90.0 and allowing 87.3, positioned sixth, and on the road they are 1-1 with 87.0 points scored and 81.0 allowed; their recent five games also feature four wins and one loss, including a 104-103 win over Njardvik. Historically the teams have met seven times, with Alftanes winning four and Grindavik three, the most recent encounter on 16 January 2026 ending 83-78 in favour of Grindavik.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alftanes win
69.7%fair 1.44
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Grindavik win
30.3%fair 3.30
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlftanesIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlftanes
Date
Competition
Keflavik
#5
L
96-106
96
106
-10
76avg 93
H06/03
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
89-93
89
93
-4
83avg 93
H12/03
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
104-115
104
115
-11
96avg 93
A21/03
Premier league
Stjarnan
#3
W
124-115
124
115
+9
119avg 93
H26/03
Premier league
Hottur
#8
W
111-77
111
77
+34
111avg 93
H08/10
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#10
W
119-88
119
88
+31
117avg 93
A15/10
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
130-110
130
110
+20
137avg 93
H23/10
Premier league
Tindastoll
#3
W
108-105 OT
108
105
+3
108avg 93
A29/10
Premier league
KR Basket
#1
L
94-102
94
102
-8
no box
H05/11
Premier league
Valur
#4
W
80-68
80
68
+12
no box
A12/11
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-17
16-28
33-39
27-22
23-31
29-23
24-25
13-14
31-25
31-29
23-30
19-31
29-30
30-33
30-35
35-17
26-26
31-17
24-15
30-19
31-25
29-27
31-19
28-17
29-32
34-29
32-32
35-17
19-27
25-23
33-36
19-10
20-28
21-23
33-22
20-29
21-9
20-32
18-15
21-12
203.4Avg total
105.5Scored
97.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)107.091.7198.7+15.383%
Season at home (3)111.796.3208.0+15.367%
Season away (3)102.387.0189.3+15.3100%
Last 10 (10)105.597.9203.4+7.660%
Last 5 (5)106.294.6200.8+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)92.6106.0198.6-13.414%
vs Similar (11)90.897.1187.9-6.318%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)102.581.5184.0+21.191%
This opponent (Grindavik) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GrindavikIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGrindavik
Date
Competition
Tindastoll
#2
W
85-80
85
80
+5
77avg 84
H09/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
86-83
86
83
+3
81avg 84
A12/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
89-94
89
94
-5
76avg 84
H15/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
109-102
109
102
+7
109avg 84
A18/05
Premier league
KR Basket
#1
L
80-91
80
91
-11
64avg 84
H09/10
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
74-81
74
81
-7
64avg 84
A16/10
Premier league
Stjarnan
#7
W
98-92
98
92
+6
92avg 84
H22/10
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
W
104-103 OT
104
103
+1
102avg 84
H30/10
Premier league
Armann
#12
W
100-81
100
81
+19
no box
A05/11
Premier league
Sindri
#11
W
84-76
84
76
+8
no box
H13/11
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-18
21-16
13-26
23-20
22-27
18-15
21-17
25-24
26-29
21-22
21-18
21-25
31-19
17-26
36-27
25-30
18-18
20-15
15-23
27-35
26-29
28-16
14-17
6-19
29-24
23-22
25-22
21-24
23-13
29-28
19-27
23-26
20-29
28-11
29-20
23-21
25-20
15-16
20-20
24-20
179.2Avg total
90.9Scored
88.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)90.087.3177.3+2.767%
Season at home (4)91.590.5182.0+1.075%
Season away (2)87.081.0168.0+6.050%
Last 10 (10)90.988.3179.2+2.670%
Last 5 (5)92.086.6178.6+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)87.691.7179.3-4.143%
vs Similar (5)88.490.6179.0-2.260%
vs Weaker (18)90.885.1175.9+5.778%
This opponent (Alftanes) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 179.5
Over 179.5
75.6%
Under 179.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 184.5
Over 184.5
65.0%
Under 184.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 189.5
Over 189.5
53.3%
Under 189.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Alftanes total 90
Over 90
80.6%
Under 90
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alftanes total 94
Over 94
67.7%
Under 94
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alftanes total 98
Over 98
52.1%
Under 98
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik total 86.5
Over 86.5
72.1%
Under 86.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik total 90.5
Over 90.5
57.8%
Under 90.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik total 94.5
Over 94.5
42.5%
Under 94.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Alftanes -3
ALFT -3
61.7%
GRIN +3
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
ALFT
No market prices yet.
GRIN
No market prices yet.
Spread Alftanes 0
ALFT 0
69.7%
GRIN 0
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
ALFT
No market prices yet.
GRIN
No market prices yet.
Spread Alftanes +3
ALFT +3
77.3%
GRIN -3
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
ALFT
No market prices yet.
GRIN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -2.6-2.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -2.6-2.6
AlftanesGrindavik
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlftanesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keflavik
#5
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H06/03
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
52-54
52
54
-2
H12/03
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
62-54
62
54
+8
A21/03
Premier league
Stjarnan
#3
L
59-63
59
63
-4
H26/03
Premier league
Hottur
#8
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H08/10
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#10
W
60-52
60
52
+8
A15/10
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H23/10
Premier league
Tindastoll
#3
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A29/10
Premier league
KR Basket
#1
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H05/11
Premier league
Valur
#4
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A12/11
Premier league
102.9Avg total
51.5Scored
51.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.746.894.4+0.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.749.098.7+0.740%-
Last 30 away (15)45.744.590.2+1.140%-
Last 10 (10)51.551.4102.9+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)49.851.0100.8-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.052.7102.7-2.729%-
vs Similar (11)44.248.792.9-4.59%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)49.841.291.0+8.673%-
This opponent (Grindavik) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GrindavikLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tindastoll
#2
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H09/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A12/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H15/05
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
48-45
48
45
+3
A18/05
Premier league
KR Basket
#1
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H09/10
Premier league
Valur
#4
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A16/10
Premier league
Stjarnan
#7
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H22/10
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H30/10
Premier league
Armann
#12
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A05/11
Premier league
Sindri
#11
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H13/11
Premier league
88.1Avg total
46.8Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.744.288.9+0.457%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.341.587.8+4.875%-
Last 30 away (14)42.847.490.1-4.636%-
Last 10 (10)46.841.388.1+5.580%-
Last 5 (5)49.241.690.8+7.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)41.944.085.9-2.143%-
vs Similar (5)47.847.895.6+0.060%-
vs Weaker (18)44.943.388.2+1.661%-
This opponent (Alftanes) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alftanestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alftanes: 104.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 94.5 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.828.8
62.9%
56.2%57.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.610.4
35.1%
33.0%31.2
🏀 Free throws20.315.8
77.8%
73.9%15.8
They take 75.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Grindaviktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Grindavik: 91.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 94.5 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.619.3
55.8%
56.2%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.513.2
33.4%
33.0%39.6
🏀 Free throws19.113.1
68.6%
73.9%13.1
They take 74.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alftanes
WLWWWWWLLL
Grindavik
WWWWLLWLWW
#2
League position
#6
+4.9
Net rating
+2.3
107.5
Offensive rating
95.1
102.5
Defensive rating
92.8
58.9%
Effective FG%
52.8%
57.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.7%
13.7%
Turnover %
13.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.1%
3-point %
33.4%
55.4%
Assist %
64.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence107.5 · 95.1Defence102.5 · 92.8Shooting58.9% · 52.8%3-point %35.1% · 33.4%Ball care13.7% · 13.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Alftanes   ■ Grindavik
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Alftanes wins
3
Grindavik wins
DateGameScore
16/01/26Grindavik v Alftanes83-78
16/10/25Alftanes v Grindavik70-79
12/02/25Grindavik v Alftanes92-94
14/11/24Alftanes v Grindavik90-88
21/01/24Grindavik v Alftanes79-90
11/01/24Grindavik v Alftanes87-84
12/10/23Alftanes v Grindavik86-79
Alftaneslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AValur80-68
05/11/26HKR Basket94-102
29/10/26ATindastoll108-105 OT
23/10/26HKeflavik130-110
15/10/26AIR Reykjavik119-88
08/10/26HHottur111-77
26/03/26HStjarnan124-115
21/03/26ATindastoll104-115
12/03/26HIR Reykjavik89-93
06/03/26HKeflavik96-106
Grindaviklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HSindri84-76
05/11/26AArmann100-81
30/10/26HNjardvik104-103 OT
22/10/26HStjarnan98-92
16/10/26AValur74-81
09/10/26HKR Basket80-91
18/05/26ATindastoll109-102
15/05/26HTindastoll89-94
12/05/26ATindastoll86-83
09/05/26HTindastoll85-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alftanes
Premier league 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW83%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%67%100%
Points / game107.0111.7102.3
Allowed / game91.796.387.0
Point differential+15.3+15.3+15.3
Avg total198.7208.0189.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Grindavik
Premier league 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW67%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %67%75%50%
Points / game90.091.587.0
Allowed / game87.390.581.0
Point differential+2.7+1.0+6.0
Avg total177.3182.0168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %17%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 KR Basket660100%100.785.8+14.8
2 Alftanes65183%107.091.7+15.3
3 Tindastoll65183%91.883.7+8.2
4 Valur65183%84.278.8+5.3
5 Keflavik64267%105.0102.0+3.0
6 Grindavik64267%90.087.3+2.7
7 Stjarnan63350%97.593.3+4.2
8 Hottur62433%92.0101.5-9.5
9 Njardvik61517%87.394.3-7.0
10 IR Reykjavik61517%92.3102.3-10.0
11 Sindri6060%83.893.0-9.2
12 Armann6060%85.3103.2-17.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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