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Alftanes vs Keflavik Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 06 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:15
Final 96-106
20-17 16-28 33-39 27-22
Position#8
Record7-11
FormLWLLL
Points / game90.6
Allowed / game90.1
vs
Position#5
Record10-8
FormWWLLL
Points / game94.6
Allowed / game91.3
IcelandPremier leagueRound 8· Ungmennafélag Álftaness
Other2025-26
Meetings · Alftanes v Keflavik
23 Oct 2026
ALFT130
KEFL110
06 Mar 2026
ALFT96
KEFL106
03 Oct 2024
ALFT101
KEFL108
23 Apr 2024
ALFT85
KEFL114
15 Apr 2024
ALFT77
KEFL56
16 Feb 2024
ALFT109
KEFL114
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alftanes winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Keflavik winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlftanesIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlftanes
Date
Competition
Tindastoll
#2
L
78-137
78
137
-59
58avg 85
H12/12
Premier league
Stjarnan
#2
L
74-94
74
94
-20
65avg 85
A15/12
Icelandic Cup
Stjarnan
#3
L
104-108
104
108
-4
96avg 85
A19/12
Premier league
Armann
#10
W
110-75
110
75
+35
122avg 85
A03/01
Premier league
Thorl
#11
W
97-75
97
75
+22
101avg 85
H09/01
Premier league
Grindavik
#1
L
78-83
78
83
-5
no box
A16/01
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
W
89-83
89
83
+6
84avg 85
H22/01
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
L
96-101
96
101
-5
92avg 85
A29/01
Premier league
KR Basket
#6
L
80-87
80
87
-7
63avg 85
A12/02
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
87-108
87
108
-21
75avg 85
H20/02
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-33
27-40
14-25
11-39
21-26
25-19
15-26
13-23
35-23
13-28
28-34
28-23
18-13
27-18
27-23
38-21
28-22
15-23
24-15
30-15
19-24
24-19
20-18
15-22
22-28
19-12
27-25
21-18
21-28
24-29
35-17
16-27
24-27
18-17
20-21
18-22
23-26
18-23
24-34
22-25
184.4Avg total
89.3Scored
95.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)90.690.1180.7+0.439%
Season at home (8)92.991.5184.4+1.462%
Season away (10)88.789.0177.7-0.320%
Last 10 (10)89.395.1184.4-5.830%
Last 5 (5)86.092.4178.4-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)88.6100.5189.1-11.831%
vs Similar ◀ (9)92.095.9187.9-3.933%
vs Weaker (7)96.478.1174.6+18.371%
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KeflavikIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKeflavik
Date
Competition
Njardvik
#9
W
93-83
93
83
+10
84avg 88
H18/12
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
86-89
86
89
-3
81avg 88
A04/01
Premier league
Valur
#5
W
94-93
94
93
+1
94avg 88
A12/01
Icelandic Cup
Stjarnan
#3
L
98-116
98
116
-18
no box
A15/01
Premier league
Armann
#10
L
93-102
93
102
-9
83avg 88
H22/01
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
98-81
98
81
+17
95avg 88
H26/01
Premier league
Thorl
#11
W
98-78
98
78
+20
95avg 88
A30/01
Premier league
Stjarnan
#2
L
107-110 OT
107
110
-3
96avg 88
H03/02
Icelandic Cup
Grindavik
#1
L
99-105
99
105
-6
100avg 88
H13/02
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
L
96-97
96
97
-1
94avg 88
A19/02
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-14
27-30
21-17
30-22
24-29
21-25
25-25
16-10
23-27
25-21
23-25
23-20
15-36
35-33
21-27
27-20
19-28
24-27
28-24
22-23
26-9
21-28
28-24
23-20
24-29
18-22
23-12
33-15
24-27
21-20
29-27
21-21
24-23
18-36
30-26
27-20
27-31
28-14
22-29
19-23
191.6Avg total
96.2Scored
95.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)94.691.3185.9+3.356%
Season at home (10)95.485.4180.8+10.080%
Season away (8)93.698.8192.4-5.125%
Last 10 (10)96.295.4191.6+0.840%
Last 5 (5)99.694.2193.8+5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)87.596.4183.9-8.930%
vs Similar ◀ (10)99.199.6198.7-0.550%
vs Weaker (9)95.388.0183.3+7.367%
This opponent (Alftanes) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +4.7+4.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +4.7+4.7
AlftanesKeflavik
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlftanesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tindastoll
#2
L
53-73
53
73
-20
H12/12
Premier league
Stjarnan
#2
W
46-45
46
45
+1
A15/12
Icelandic Cup
Stjarnan
#3
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A19/12
Premier league
Armann
#10
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A03/01
Premier league
Thorl
#11
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H09/01
Premier league
Grindavik
#1
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A16/01
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H22/01
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
L
45-57
45
57
-12
A29/01
Premier league
KR Basket
#6
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A12/02
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H20/02
Premier league
92.5Avg total
44.7Scored
47.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.645.792.4+0.943%-
Last 30 at home (13)49.945.595.4+4.562%-
Last 30 away (17)44.145.990.1-1.829%-
Last 10 (10)44.747.892.5-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)42.446.689.0-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)47.349.596.8-2.238%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)45.747.793.3-2.022%-
vs Weaker (7)46.736.383.0+10.471%-
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KeflavikLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Njardvik
#9
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H18/12
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A04/01
Premier league
Valur
#5
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A12/01
Icelandic Cup
Stjarnan
#3
L
50-69
50
69
-19
A15/01
Premier league
Armann
#10
L
43-55
43
55
-12
H22/01
Premier league
Tindastoll
#2
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H26/01
Premier league
Thorl
#11
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A30/01
Premier league
Stjarnan
#2
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H03/02
Icelandic Cup
Grindavik
#1
L
42-59
42
59
-17
H13/02
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
W
55-45
55
45
+10
A19/02
Premier league
96.8Avg total
45.9Scored
50.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.896.0-1.743%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.945.192.1+1.857%-
Last 30 away (16)47.352.199.4-4.831%-
Last 10 (10)45.950.996.8-5.020%-
Last 5 (5)46.247.894.0-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)44.750.795.4-6.040%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)47.950.698.5-2.720%-
vs Weaker (9)48.846.295.0+2.667%-
This opponent (Alftanes) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alftanestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alftanes: 89.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.1 points a game
47%
36%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.922.7
54.2%
54.6%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.1
32.7%
34.0%27.3
🏀 Free throws21.316.8
78.9%
74.2%16.8
They take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Keflaviktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Keflavik: 96.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.1 points a game
47%
36%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.622.8
53.5%
54.6%45.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.0
34.2%
34.0%30.0
🏀 Free throws25.020.6
82.4%
74.2%20.6
They take 71.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alftanes
LLLWLWWLLL
Keflavik
LLLWWLLWLW
#8
League position
#5
-8.5
Net rating
+6.1
102.4
Offensive rating
106.5
110.9
Defensive rating
100.4
52.2%
Effective FG%
52.6%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
15.0%
Turnover %
13.4%
26.8%
Off. rebound %
32.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.7%
3-point %
34.2%
61.0%
Assist %
68.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence102.4 · 106.5Defence110.9 · 100.4Shooting52.2% · 52.6%3-point %32.7% · 34.2%Ball care15.0% · 13.4%Off. rebounds26.8% · 32.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Alftanes   ■ Keflavik
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Alftanes wins
7
Keflavik wins
DateGameScore
21/11/25Keflavik v Alftanes101-90
02/01/25Keflavik v Alftanes87-89
03/10/24Alftanes v Keflavik101-108 OT
23/04/24Alftanes v Keflavik85-114
19/04/24Keflavik v Alftanes88-84
15/04/24Alftanes v Keflavik77-56
11/04/24Keflavik v Alftanes99-92
16/02/24Alftanes v Keflavik109-114 OT
17/11/23Keflavik v Alftanes97-78
Alftaneslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/26HValur87-108
12/02/26AKR Basket80-87
29/01/26ANjardvik96-101
22/01/26HAkranes IA89-83
16/01/26AGrindavik78-83
09/01/26HThorl97-75
03/01/26AArmann110-75
19/12/25AStjarnan104-108
15/12/25AStjarnan74-94
12/12/25HTindastoll78-137
Keflaviklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/02/26AAkranes IA96-97
13/02/26HGrindavik99-105
03/02/26HStjarnan107-110 OT
30/01/26AThorl98-78
26/01/26HTindastoll98-81
22/01/26HArmann93-102
15/01/26AStjarnan98-116
12/01/26AValur94-93
04/01/26AIR Reykjavik86-89
18/12/25HNjardvik93-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alftanes
Premier league 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL39%
HomeWLWWL62%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %39%62%20%
Points / game90.692.988.7
Allowed / game90.191.589.0
Point differential+0.4+1.4-0.3
Avg total180.7184.4177.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%38%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)100% (1)0% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Keflavik
Premier league 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL56%
HomeWWLWL80%
AwayLLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18108
Win %56%80%25%
Points / game94.695.493.6
Allowed / game91.385.498.8
Point differential+3.3+10.0-5.1
Avg total185.9180.8192.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Grindavik1816289%93.788.1+5.7
2 Tindastoll1813572%101.691.2+10.4
3 Stjarnan1813572%103.994.5+9.4
4 Valur1812667%91.888.9+2.8
5 KR Basket1811761%99.994.7+5.3
6 Keflavik1810856%94.691.3+3.3
7 Alftanes1871139%90.690.1+0.4
8 IR Reykjavik1871139%90.791.7-1.1
9 Njardvik1861233%96.098.2-2.2
10 Thorl1851328%89.796.6-6.9
11 Akranes IA1841422%87.599.9-12.4
12 Armann1841422%86.5101.3-14.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Alftanes2016332796
Keflavik17283922106
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