PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Arizona faces Uconn on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Arizona as the favourite because it holds a 2-1 record, averages 89.7 points and allows 75.7, while Uconn is undefeated at 3-0, scores 84.7 and concedes 54.7; Arizona's 76% win probability reflects its higher scoring margin and recent home dominance, where it has won both of its two home games, scoring 97.0 and allowing 71.5, and has won three of its last five, including a 90-59 victory over Northern Arizona and a 104-84 win over Cal Poly, though it suffered a 75-84 loss to UCLA away. Uconn, meanwhile, has gone 1-0 on the road, scoring 85.0 and allowing 77.0, and has won four of its last five, with a 85-77 win over Michigan and a 86-46 win over Gardner Webb; its all-season 3-0 record and 54.7 points allowed per game give it a 24% chance of winning. The head-to-head history shows Arizona has beaten Uconn once, 71-67, last meeting on 19 November 2025. Pythia projects a final score of 80-72, total points 151.6, and gives Arizona a 76% chance to win, with a 4% probability that the game will go into overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 87.2 | 74.0 | 161.2 | +13.2 | 75% |
| Season at home (2) | 97.0 | 71.5 | 168.5 | +25.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 77.5 | 76.5 | 154.0 | +1.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 85.9 | 73.7 | 159.6 | +12.2 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.4 | 77.4 | 161.8 | +7.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 75.0 | 84.0 | 159.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (6) | 76.7 | 72.8 | 149.5 | +3.8 | 83% |
| vs Weaker (23) | 87.0 | 70.4 | 157.4 | +16.5 | 91% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 84.5 | 58.0 | 142.5 | +26.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 84.3 | 51.7 | 136.0 | +32.7 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 85.0 | 77.0 | 162.0 | +8.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.7 | 62.6 | 139.3 | +14.1 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.2 | 60.2 | 140.4 | +20.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 68.0 | 70.5 | 138.5 | -2.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (5) | 66.8 | 63.6 | 130.4 | +3.2 | 60% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 79.2 | 66.1 | 145.3 | +13.1 | 91% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.0 | 34.0 | 75.0 | +7.0 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 41.6 | 32.7 | 74.3 | +8.9 | 74% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 40.0 | 36.4 | 76.4 | +3.6 | 64% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.7 | 35.6 | 77.3 | +6.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.4 | 37.2 | 77.6 | +3.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 29.0 | 43.0 | 72.0 | -14.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 37.0 | 35.8 | 72.8 | +1.2 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | 42.6 | 33.2 | 75.7 | +9.4 | 74% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.8 | 31.9 | 69.7 | +5.9 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 39.6 | 30.1 | 69.6 | +9.5 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 35.2 | 34.7 | 69.8 | +0.5 | 58% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.0 | 31.4 | 69.4 | +6.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.2 | 29.0 | 69.2 | +11.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 29.0 | 38.5 | 67.5 | -9.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 35.8 | 32.2 | 68.0 | +3.6 | 60% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 39.0 | 31.3 | 70.3 | +7.7 | 83% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Auburn | 80-69 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Northern Arizona | 90-59 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Cal Poly | 104-84 |
| 03/11/26 | A | UCLA | 75-84 |
| 05/04/26 | H | Michigan | 73-91 |
| 29/03/26 | H | Purdue | 79-64 |
| 27/03/26 | H | Arkansas | 109-88 |
| 23/03/26 | H | Utah State | 78-66 |
| 20/03/26 | H | LIU Sharks | 92-58 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Houston | 79-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Ohio State | 84-68 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Wagner | 83-41 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Michigan | 85-77 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Gardner Webb | 86-46 |
| 07/04/26 | A | Michigan | 63-69 |
| 04/04/26 | H | Illinois | 71-62 |
| 29/03/26 | A | Duke | 73-72 |
| 28/03/26 | H | Michigan State | 67-63 |
| 23/03/26 | H | UCLA | 73-57 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Furman | 82-71 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWW | 75% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 87.2 | 97.0 | 77.5 |
| Allowed / game | 74.0 | 71.5 | 76.5 |
| Point differential | +13.2 | +25.5 | +1.0 |
| Avg total | 161.2 | 168.5 | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 84.5 | 84.3 | 85.0 |
| Allowed / game | 58.0 | 51.7 | 77.0 |
| Point differential | +26.5 | +32.7 | +8.0 |
| Avg total | 142.5 | 136.0 | 162.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 3 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  TCU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.2 | +27.8 |
| 5 |  Arizona State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 63.2 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 59.3 | +19.3 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 10 | Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 74.0 | +13.2 |
| 11 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 13 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 14 |  Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 60.0 | +13.7 |
| 15 |  Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 70.3 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xavier | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 55.8 | +32.8 |
| 2 |  St. John's (N.Y.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 62.3 | +28.3 |
| 3 | Uconn | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 84.5 | 58.0 | +26.5 |
| 4 |  DePaul | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 58.0 | +19.0 |
| 5 |  Georgetown | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 72.0 | +11.5 |
| 6 |  Seton Hall | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 69.2 | 61.5 | +7.8 |
| 7 |  Marquette | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 53.0 | +27.3 |
| 8 |  Villanova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 66.3 | +16.0 |
| 9 |  Providence | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.0 | 59.3 | +13.7 |
| 10 |  Creighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 68.3 | +12.0 |
| 11 |  Butler | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 85.0 | 75.2 | +9.8 |
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