Army faces St. Thomas (Minn.) on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Gunners at 60% to 40% and projecting a 76-74 win; the spread of 7.5 points gives Army an 81% chance to cover, while the over on the 147.5 line has a 55% probability, and a 5% chance of overtime. Army has gone 1-2 this season, averaging 74.3 points and allowing 62.7, while St. Thomas (Minn.) is 2-2, scoring 83.8 and conceding 78.0. At home Army is 1-0, 118.0 to 41.0, but has lost four of its last five, including a 55-63 defeat to New Haven Chargers and a 50-84 loss to Duke, while St. Thomas (Minn.) is 1-1 on the road, 74.5 to 77.0, and has won two of its last five, notably a 119-82 victory over Macalester. Their only prior meeting ended with St. Thomas (Minn.) winning 83-76 on 8 November 2025, a result that echoes the close projected score of 76-74. The projected total of 150.1 points suggests a competitive game that will likely stay within the 147.5 line.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Army winWon
59.7%fair 1.67
Best odds3.63
Implied29.7%
Edge+30.1pp
St. Thomas (Minn.) winLost
40.3%fair 2.48
Best odds1.37
Implied70.3%
Edge-30.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Army) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
69.3%
@ 1.47+4.3pp
Under 141.5
30.7%
@ 2.80-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
57.9%
@ 1.91+7.9pp
Under 146.5
42.1%
@ 2.07-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.07
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
45.8%
@ 2.37+6.3pp
Under 151.5
54.2%
@ 1.69-6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.30
Under
Marathon Be
1.69
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Army total 65.5Actual: Army over 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.65
Army total 70 · main lineActual: Army over 70
Over 70
74.2%
@ 1.85+23.6pp
Under 70
25.8%
@ 1.88-23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Army total 74Actual: Army over 74
Over 74
59.6%
Under 74
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 74Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) over 74
Over 74
48.2%
Under 74
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 78 · main lineActual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 78
Over 78
32.8%
@ 1.86-17.2pp
Under 78
67.2%
@ 1.85+17.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 81.5Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.36
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Army +3Actual: Army +3
ARMY +3
68.5%
@ 2.80+35.3pp
ST. -3
31.5%
@ 1.39-35.3pp
Best 5 market prices
ARMY
Bet365
2.80
ST.
Bet365
1.39
Spread Army +6 · main lineActual: Army +6
ARMY +6
77.8%
@ 2.15+27.4pp
ST. -6
22.2%
@ 1.94-27.4pp
Best 5 market prices
ARMY
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
ST.
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Bet365
1.64
Spread Army +9Actual: Army +9
ARMY +9
85.1%
@ 1.74+27.3pp
ST. -9
14.9%
@ 2.27-27.3pp
Best 5 market prices
ARMY
Marathon Be
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.66
ST.
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.98
1xBet
1.98
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ArmySt. Thomas (Minn.)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Army) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Army win
ARMY win
no forecast
@ 2.52
ST. win
no forecast
@ 1.53
2nd half Spread Army +3.5 · main lineActual: Army +3.5
ARMY +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
ST. -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Army (regulation)
ARMY
no forecast
@ 2.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
ST.
no forecast
@ 1.57
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Army +4
71.7%
2.45
Bet365
2.60
Pinnacle
2.29
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Won
Army +5
74.9%
2.14
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathon Bet
1.97
-
-
+29.3pp
Won
Army +4.5
72.6%
2.32
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.20
-
-
+29.1pp
Won
Army +9.5
85.4%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.60
-
+28.3pp
Won
Army +10
87.0%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Won
Army +5.5
75.7%
2.06
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
+27.7pp
Won
Army +6
77.8%
1.97
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
+27.4pp
Won
Army +9
85.1%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.66
-
+27.3pp
Won
Army +11
88.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
Army +10.5
87.2%
1.54
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Won
Army +6.5
78.4%
1.89
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
+25.6pp
Won
Army +7
80.5%
1.89
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.98
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
+25.5pp
Won
Army +11.5
88.9%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Army +12
90.2%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Army +8.5
83.3%
1.73
1xBet
1.80
SBO
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.71
+24.6pp
Won
Army +7.5
81.0%
1.81
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.73
+24.0pp
Won
Army over 69.5
75.0%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
+23.9pp
Won
Army +8
82.9%
1.79
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.62
+23.9pp
Won
Army +12.5
90.4%
1.39
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Army +13
91.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Army over 70
74.2%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
Army over 70.5
71.8%
1.89
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
+23.5pp
Won
Army +13.5
91.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Army +14
92.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Army over 71
70.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Army +14.5
92.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 79
70.7%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Army +15
93.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Army +15.5
93.8%
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Army +16
94.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Army +16.5
94.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Army +17.5
95.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 80.5
74.8%
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 79.5
71.6%
1.51
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Army +22.5
98.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Over 139.5
73.5%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.7%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 140.5
71.4%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Over 141
70.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 123.5
94.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 128.5
90.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 173.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 138.5
75.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
84.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 59.5
91.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Under 168.5
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 60.5
89.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 61.5
88.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Under 163.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 62.5
86.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
70.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 63.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 64.5
81.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 65.5
78.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 66.5
75.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +12.5
80.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 67.5
72.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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