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Ball State vs UMass Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 74-73 (OT)
21-34 40-27 13-12
Position#288
Record8-19
FormWLLLL
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game70.3
Ball State 🏆
USA
vs
UMass
USA
Position#189
Record15-13
FormWLLLL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game77.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ball State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
UMass winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#241
W
76-71
76
71
+5
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A21/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
58-53
58
53
+5
H24/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
55-73
55
73
-18
A31/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
52-77
52
77
-25
A04/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
73-68
73
68
+5
A07/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
53-63
53
63
-10
H12/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
68-75
68
75
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A18/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
65-78
65
78
-13
H20/02
NCAA
1H
2H
44-31
32-40
33-20
35-47
29-22
29-31
27-39
28-34
27-40
25-37
36-27
37-41
27-30
26-33
31-40
37-35
15-32
42-37
36-40
29-38
131.9Avg total
62.5Scored
69.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)66.070.3136.3-4.330%
Season at home (13)71.066.8137.8+4.246%
Season away (14)61.373.5134.8-12.214%
Last 10 (10)62.569.4131.9-6.940%
Last 5 (5)63.270.6133.8-7.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)65.078.8143.8-13.80%
vs Similar (14)62.970.4133.4-7.521%
vs Weaker (4)64.562.2126.8+2.275%
This opponent (UMass) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMassUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
L
68-70
68
70
-2
A17/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
84-82
84
82
+2
H20/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
84-86
84
86
-2
A28/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
70-67
70
67
+3
H31/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
95-89
95
89
+6
H04/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
91-94 OT
91
94
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
92-99
92
99
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
82-86 OT
82
86
-4
H21/02
NCAA
1H
2H
33-40
35-30
35-34
49-48
38-29
30-38
47-43
37-43
38-30
32-37
40-47
55-42
32-21
32-43
43-44
49-55
36-41
41-45
34-29
34-39
163.7Avg total
81.1Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)80.977.3158.2+3.654%
Season at home (16)81.474.9156.3+6.662%
Season away (12)80.280.6160.8-0.442%
Last 10 (10)81.182.6163.7-1.540%
Last 5 (5)87.490.8178.2-3.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)80.889.2170.0-8.40%
vs Similar (15)79.578.2157.7+1.347%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)77.873.1150.9+4.778%
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: -5.3-5.32nd half: -2.6-2.6
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: -5.3-5.32nd half: -2.6-2.6
Ball StateUMass
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#241
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
33-20
33
20
+13
A21/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H24/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A31/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
27-40
27
40
-13
A04/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H12/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H14/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
15-32
15
32
-17
A18/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H20/02
NCAA
62.6Avg total
30.5Scored
32.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.632.262.8-1.630%-
Last 30 at home (14)34.931.666.5+3.243%-
Last 30 away (16)26.832.759.5-5.919%-
Last 10 (10)30.532.162.6-1.640%-
Last 5 (5)29.033.862.8-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)30.538.969.4-8.410%-
vs Similar (14)29.130.759.8-1.629%-
vs Weaker (4)31.227.859.0+3.550%-
This opponent (UMass) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMassLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A17/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H20/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A28/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H31/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H04/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
32-21
32
21
+11
A07/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H21/02
NCAA
73.4Avg total
37.6Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.334.370.6+2.057%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.432.868.3+2.656%-
Last 30 away (12)37.636.574.1+1.158%-
Last 10 (10)37.635.873.4+1.860%-
Last 5 (5)37.036.473.4+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)36.239.275.4-3.020%-
vs Similar (15)36.033.469.4+2.653%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)36.334.670.9+1.878%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Ball State wins
1
UMass wins
DateGameScore
10/01/26UMass v Ball State79-71
21/11/21UMass v Ball State86-89
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/26HAkron65-78
18/02/26AOhio57-69
14/02/26HKent State68-75
12/02/26HBuffalo53-63
07/02/26ALouisiana Monroe73-68
04/02/26ABowling Green52-77
31/01/26AToledo55-73
24/01/26HNorthern Illinois58-53
21/01/26ACentral Michigan68-67
17/01/26HOhio76-71
UMasslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26HBuffalo82-86 OT
18/02/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
14/02/26AAkron92-99
07/02/26ACoastal Carolina91-94 OT
04/02/26HCentral Michigan95-89
31/01/26HEastern Michigan70-67
28/01/26AMiami (Ohio)84-86
24/01/26ABuffalo68-67
20/01/26HToledo84-82
17/01/26ANorthern Illinois68-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ball State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL30%
HomeWWLLL46%
AwayWLLWL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %30%46%14%
Points / game66.071.061.3
Allowed / game70.366.873.5
Point differential-4.3+4.2-12.2
Avg total136.3137.8134.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%31%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)67% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
UMass
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL54%
HomeWWWLL62%
AwayLWLLL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281612
Win %54%62%42%
Points / game80.981.480.2
Allowed / game77.374.980.6
Point differential+3.6+6.6-0.4
Avg total158.2156.3160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (13)40% (5)38% (8)
Overtime %11%12%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)28280100%91.674.1+17.5
2 Akron2722581%89.474.5+15.0
3 Kent State2719870%85.479.9+5.5
4 Buffalo27161159%78.675.0+3.6
5 Bowling Green28161257%81.871.2+10.5
6 UMass28151354%80.977.3+3.6
7 Ohio28151354%77.176.6+0.5
8 Toledo27141352%81.377.5+3.8
9 Northern Illinois2691735%70.976.2-5.3
10 Eastern Michigan29101934%70.973.4-2.6
11 Central Michigan2791833%73.676.6-3.1
12 Western Michigan2791833%74.679.9-5.3
13 Ball State2781930%66.070.3-4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Ball State21401374
UMass34271273
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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