Baylor faces Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating Baylor as the clear favourite at 99% because of their 1-0 season record, 87.0 points per game and only 65.0 points allowed, placing them 116th in the league, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff sits 411th with 61.0 points scored and 106.0 allowed from a 0-1 record. Baylor's single game has been a 87-65 win at home, and their last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 101-75 victory over Utah Utes at home, whereas Arkansas-Pine Bluff's lone outing was a 61-106 loss to Arkansas, and their last five games contain one win and four losses, highlighted by a 83-48 win over Alcorn State. In head-to-head history, Baylor has won both meetings, most recently 99-54 on 4 December 2021. Pythia projects a 95-67 score with a total of 161.7 points, giving Baylor a 99% chance to win and a 1% chance for Arkansas-Pine Bluff; the model sees a 62% probability that the combined score will exceed the 157.0 line, and there is no chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baylor winWon
98.7%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas-Pine Bluff winLost
1.3%fair 79.73
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Baylor) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
71.7%
@ 1.35+2.8pp
Under 152.5
28.3%
@ 3.00-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
60.4%
@ 1.82+8.9pp
Under 157.5
39.6%
@ 2.72-8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Be
1.62
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Marathon Be
1.93
SBO
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
48.0%
@ 1.80-5.1pp
Under 162.5
52.0%
@ 2.03+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
📊 3. Team Totals
Baylor total 93.5Actual: Baylor over 93.5
Over 93.5
54.7%
@ 1.30-16.4pp
Under 93.5
45.3%
@ 3.20+16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Baylor total 97.5 · main lineActual: Baylor over 97.5
Over 97.5
38.7%
@ 1.87-11.3pp
Under 97.5
61.3%
@ 2.50+11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Under
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Baylor total 101.5Actual: Baylor over 101.5
Over 101.5
24.5%
@ 2.25-24.9pp
Under 101.5
75.5%
@ 1.86+24.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.57
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 57Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 57
Over 57
85.2%
Under 57
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 61 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 61
Over 61
73.6%
@ 1.85+23.2pp
Under 61
26.4%
@ 1.88-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 65Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 65
Over 65
58.4%
Under 65
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Baylor -41Actual: Baylor -41
BAYL -41
no forecast
@ 2.20
ARKA +41
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Bet365
2.20
ARKA
Bet365
1.62
Spread Baylor -38 · main lineActual: Baylor -38
BAYL -38
no forecast
@ 1.92
ARKA +38
no forecast
@ 1.88
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
ARKA
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Baylor -35Actual: Baylor -35
BAYL -35
no forecast
@ 1.58
ARKA +35
no forecast
@ 2.22
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Bet365
1.58
ARKA
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
BaylorArkansas-Pine Bluff
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Baylor under 101.5
75.5%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.57
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
Baylor under 101
74.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Baylor under 100.5
72.3%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+24.6pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 59.5
77.6%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 61
73.6%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Baylor under 103.5
81.4%
1.57
1xBet
1.57
-
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Lost
Baylor under 100
71.3%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 62
70.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Baylor under 102.5
78.6%
1.54
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 61.5
71.2%
1.82
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
+18.4pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 60.5
74.5%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.68
+18.4pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 58.5
80.5%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
Baylor under 104.5
84.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 56.5
85.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 57.5
83.2%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 55.5
87.7%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 54.5
89.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 52.5
92.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 51.5
94.0%
1.09
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 53.5
91.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 50.5
95.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Over 150
77.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Over 149.5
77.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 147.5
81.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 151
75.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 153
71.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 137.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 132.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 150.5
75.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Over 148.5
79.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 152
73.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 170
70.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Baylor over 77.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
92.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 142.5
88.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Baylor over 76.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 171
72.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Over 151.5
73.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 152.5
71.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 170.5
70.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 171.5
72.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 143.5
87.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Baylor over 78.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Baylor over 80.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Baylor over 79.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Under 183.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Baylor over 81.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Baylor over 82.5
89.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Under 182.5
90.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Baylor over 83.5
87.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 178.5
85.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Baylor over 84.5
84.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Under 177.5
83.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
76.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Baylor over 85.5
82.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Baylor over 86.5
79.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Baylor over 87.5
76.6%
1.10
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Baylor over 88.5
73.4%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Baylor -16.5
83.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
74.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 76.5
82.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 74.5
77.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Baylor -18.5
78.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 72.5
70.9%
1.08
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-15.6pp
Won
Baylor -21.5
70.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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