PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Baylor vs Yale Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 83-72
Projected total 154.9
Final 90-61
41-30 49-31
Position#14
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game98.0
Allowed / game59.0
Baylor 🏆
USA
Vs
84%
16%
■ BAYL 84%■ YALE 16%
Pythia win probability
Yale
USA
Position#302
Record1-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game73.5
Allowed / game74.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Baylor faces Yale on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Baylor at 84% because the Bears have gone 2-0 this season, averaging 98.0 points and allowing only 59.0, and have won every game at home, 2-0, while Yale sits at 1-1 overall, scoring 73.5 and conceding 74.5, with a road record of 0-1 and a single loss to UCF Knights 75-87 away on 6 November 2026; Baylor's recent wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff 109-53 and Northwestern St. 87-65 at home contrast with Yale's loss to Penn 84-88 at home on 15 March 2026; the teams have met once before, with the last meeting ending 83-72 in favour of Baylor; Pythia projects a 83-72 score, 154.9 total points, a 21.5-point spread that Baylor covers with 19% probability, an over line of 156.5 with a 46% chance, and a 3% overtime likelihood.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Baylor winWon
84.3%fair 1.19
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Yale winLost
15.7%fair 6.36
Best odds22.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BaylorUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
L
71-82
71
82
-11
H14/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
87-86
87
86
+1
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
64-77
64
77
-13
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
101-75
101
75
+26
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#332
W
87-65
87
65
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#495
W
109-53
109
53
+56
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-34
37-48
34-41
40-49
32-40
41-28
41-34
39-53
56-42
31-44
35-35
29-42
53-33
48-42
35-44
44-39
50-32
37-33
58-13
51-40
159.1Avg total
82.5Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)98.059.0157.0+39.0100%
Season at home (2)98.059.0157.0+39.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.576.6159.1+5.950%
Last 5 (5)88.070.6158.6+17.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)66.577.5144.0-11.00%
vs Similar (12)80.879.5160.2+1.242%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)93.471.9165.3+21.575%
This opponent (Yale) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
YaleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dartmouth
#272
W
83-70
83
70
+13
A14/02
NCAA
Harvard
#133
W
76-75 OT
76
75
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
L
69-72
69
72
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
60-54
60
54
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Princeton
#337
W
78-53
78
53
+25
H07/03
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
88-76
88
76
+12
H14/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#281
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H03/11
NCAA
UCF Knights
#99
L
75-87
75
87
-12
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-30
45-40
30-34
36-32
35-40
39-30
30-35
39-37
34-25
26-29
32-30
46-23
49-42
39-34
39-41
36-34
40-28
32-34
42-39
33-48
146.6Avg total
75.9Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)73.574.5148.0-1.050%
Season at home (1)72.062.0134.0+10.0100%
Season away (1)75.087.0162.0-12.00%
Last 10 (10)75.970.7146.6+5.270%
Last 5 (5)79.473.2152.6+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)73.574.5148.0-1.050%
vs Similar (3)87.392.3179.7-5.067%
vs Weaker (24)79.969.3149.2+10.679%
This opponent (Baylor) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
57.8%
Under 151.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
45.6%
@ 1.87-5.3pp
Under 156.5
54.4%
@ 1.94+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.87
Under
Bet365
1.94
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5
Over 161.5
33.9%
Under 161.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Baylor total 85.5Actual: Baylor over 85.5
Over 85.5
40.8%
Under 85.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baylor total 89.5 · main lineActual: Baylor over 89.5
Over 89.5
26.2%
@ 1.86-23.0pp
Under 89.5
73.8%
@ 1.80+23.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.80
Baylor total 93.5Actual: Baylor under 93.5
Over 93.5
15.0%
Under 93.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yale total 63.5Actual: Yale under 63.5
Over 63.5
78.9%
Under 63.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yale total 67.5 · main lineActual: Yale under 67.5
Over 67.5
65.6%
@ 1.83+15.6pp
Under 67.5
34.4%
@ 1.83-15.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Yale total 71.5Actual: Yale under 71.5
Over 71.5
50.2%
Under 71.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Baylor -24.5Actual: Baylor -24.5
BAYL -24.5
12.7%
YALE +24.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
No market prices yet.
YALE
No market prices yet.
Spread Baylor -21.5 · main lineActual: Baylor -21.5
BAYL -21.5
18.7%
@ 1.90-31.4pp
YALE +21.5
81.3%
@ 1.91+31.4pp
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Bet365
1.90
YALE
Bet365
1.91
Spread Baylor -18.5Actual: Baylor -18.5
BAYL -18.5
26.4%
YALE +18.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
No market prices yet.
YALE
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.0+8.01st half: +2.5+2.52nd half2nd half: -2.1-2.12nd half: +3.0+3.0
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.0+8.01st half: +2.5+2.52nd half2nd half: -2.1-2.12nd half: +3.0+3.0
BaylorYale
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
BaylorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H14/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
56-42
56
42
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#332
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#495
W
58-13
58
13
+45
H06/11
NCAA
77.6Avg total
42.8Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.835.476.2+5.447%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.134.177.2+8.956%-
Last 30 away (12)37.537.374.8+0.233%-
Last 10 (10)42.834.877.6+8.050%-
Last 5 (5)46.231.477.6+14.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.233.065.2-0.817%-
vs Similar (12)38.237.876.0+0.342%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)47.834.282.0+13.767%-
This opponent (Yale) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
YaleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dartmouth
#272
W
38-30
38
30
+8
A14/02
NCAA
Harvard
#133
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A14/02
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A27/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
34-25
34
25
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Princeton
#337
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H07/03
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H14/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#281
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H03/11
NCAA
UCF Knights
#99
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A07/11
NCAA
71.3Avg total
36.9Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.233.671.8+4.570%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.533.974.4+6.676%-
Last 30 away (13)35.133.368.4+1.862%-
Last 10 (10)36.934.471.3+2.560%-
Last 5 (5)40.436.076.4+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)41.033.574.5+7.5100%-
vs Similar (3)38.341.379.7-3.067%-
vs Weaker (24)38.033.171.0+4.967%-
This opponent (Baylor) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Half-time / full-time: BAYL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: YALE leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 3 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Yale +21.581.3%1.91
Bet365
1.91		----+31.4ppLost
Baylor under 89.573.8%1.80
Bet365
1.80		----+23.0ppLost
Yale over 60.586.4%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+8.7ppWon
Yale over 58.590.3%1.12
Bet365
1.12		----+7.2ppWon
Yale over 56.593.3%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+6.1ppWon
Yale over 54.595.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+5.8ppWon
Baylor over 70.589.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.5ppWon
Baylor over 72.585.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----5.4ppWon
Baylor over 74.580.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----8.6ppWon
Baylor over 76.574.9%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----12.2ppWon
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Baylor wins
0
Yale wins
No previous meetings.
Baylorlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff109-53
03/11/26HNorthwestern St.87-65
10/03/26AArizona State79-83
07/03/26HUtah Utes101-75
05/03/26AHouston64-77
01/03/26AUCF Knights87-86
25/02/26HArizona80-87
21/02/26HArizona State73-68
18/02/26AKansas State74-90
14/02/26HLouisville71-82
Yalelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AUCF Knights75-87
03/11/26HHoward72-62
15/03/26HPenn84-88 OT
14/03/26HCornell88-76
07/03/26HPrinceton78-53
28/02/26AColumbia60-54
27/02/26ACornell69-72
21/02/26HPenn74-70
14/02/26AHarvard76-75 OT
14/02/26ADartmouth83-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Baylor
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game98.098.0-
Allowed / game59.059.0-
Point differential+39.0+39.0-
Avg total157.0157.0-
Over 156.550%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Yale
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game73.572.075.0
Allowed / game74.562.087.0
Point differential-1.0+10.0-12.0
Avg total148.0134.0162.0
Over 156.550%0%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 TCU220100%102.056.5+45.5
2 West Virginia220100%91.049.5+41.5
3 Oklahoma State220100%104.564.0+40.5
4 Baylor220100%98.059.0+39.0
5 Kansas220100%92.055.0+37.0
6 Brigham Young220100%101.075.0+26.0
7 Texas Tech220100%76.050.0+26.0
8 Arizona State220100%82.564.0+18.5
9 UCF Knights330100%86.379.7+6.7
10 Utah Utes220100%66.560.0+6.5
11 Cincinnati32167%73.760.0+13.7
12 Colorado21150%80.068.0+12.0
13 Iowa State21150%79.568.5+11.0
14 Houston21150%81.070.5+10.5
15 Kansas State21150%80.573.0+7.5
16 Arizona21150%89.584.0+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ivy League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Columbia32167%88.765.7+23.0
2 Dartmouth32167%82.363.3+19.0
3 Harvard32167%68.755.3+13.3
4 Cornell32167%83.071.7+11.3
5 Princeton32167%68.762.0+6.7
6 Yale21150%73.574.5-1.0
7 Penn21150%74.088.5-14.5
8 Brown31233%62.362.0+0.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Baylor414990
Yale303161
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.