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Bilbao vs Baskonia Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 11:00
Projected 91-88
Projected total 178.9
Scheduled
Position#8
Record4-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game92.0
Allowed / game92.6
Vs
62%
38%
■ BIL 62%■ BAS 38%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.4/10
Around normal
5.6/10
Above normal
Position#4
Record5-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game84.3
SpainACBRound 9· Bilbao Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Bilbao v Baskonia
22 Nov 2026
BIL v BAS
upcoming
15 Feb 2026
BIL69
BAS76
08 Dec 2024
BIL67
BAS69
24 Mar 2024
BIL82
BAS80
30 Oct 2022
BIL70
BAS81
27 Mar 2022
BIL62
BAS90
21 Mar 2021
BIL72
BAS85
13 May 2018
BIL74
BAS78
10 May 2017
BIL64
BAS75
13 Dec 2015
BIL89
BAS83
01 Mar 2015
BIL93
BAS75
22 Dec 2013
BIL96
BAS92
01 May 2013
BIL75
BAS93
20 May 2012
BIL88
BAS90
29 Dec 2011
BIL79
BAS80
22 Dec 2011
BIL77
BAS72
30 Sep 2011
BIL88
BAS93
12 Dec 2010
BIL99
BAS95
19 Feb 2010
BIL62
BAS75
24 Jan 2010
BIL71
BAS86
19 May 2009
BIL76
BAS97
15 Mar 2009
BIL85
BAS72
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Bilbao host Baskonia in the Liga ACB. Pythia makes Bilbao the favourite at 62% and projects 91-88, about 179 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Bilbao are 4-3 this season (92.0 scored, 92.6 allowed a game), form WLWLW; Baskonia are 5-2 this season (95.0 scored, 84.3 allowed a game), form LWLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilbao win
62.5%fair 1.60
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Baskonia win
37.5%fair 2.66
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BilbaoSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBilbao
Date
Competition
Leyma Coruna
#13
L
101-104 OT
101
104
-3
90avg 81
A04/10
ACB
Igokea
#27
W
92-79
92
79
+13
90avg 81
A06/10
Champions League
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
96-87
96
87
+9
88avg 81
H11/10
ACB
Slavia Prague ERA NBK
#50
W
97-86
97
86
+11
94avg 81
H14/10
Champions League
Real Madrid
#1
L
84-119
84
119
-35
75avg 81
A18/10
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
88-76
88
76
+12
83avg 81
H25/10
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
L
100-103
100
103
-3
98avg 81
A28/10
Champions League
Joventut Badalona
#14
W
81-78
81
78
+3
74avg 81
A01/11
ACB
Basquet Girona
#9
L
87-92
87
92
-5
no box
A07/11
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
W
83-75
83
75
+8
no box
H10/11
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
27-24
22-23
24-22
28-21
22-14
22-21
20-23
19-20
25-25
30-25
22-17
27-21
15-14
26-26
29-25
13-36
22-26
22-27
27-30
15-22
27-18
23-17
23-19
26-24
22-19
24-31
28-29
27-23
11-21
29-17
14-17
25-19
19-27
23-20
20-26
22-18
23-21
19-14
19-22
180.8Avg total
90.9Scored
89.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)92.092.6184.6-0.657%
Season at home (3)97.085.0182.0+12.0100%
Season away (4)88.298.2186.5-10.025%
Last 10 (10)90.989.9180.8+1.060%
Last 5 (5)87.884.8172.6+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)78.392.9171.1-14.614%
vs Similar (9)89.283.7172.9+5.678%
vs Weaker (14)91.684.4176.1+7.271%
This opponent (Baskonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BaskoniaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBaskonia
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#16
L
78-86
78
86
-8
66avg 83
A16/10
Euroleague
Tenerife
#2
L
77-82
77
82
-5
68avg 83
A18/10
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
79-85
79
85
-6
78avg 83
A22/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#3
L
75-84
75
84
-9
68avg 83
A25/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#5
L
86-104
86
104
-18
78avg 83
H27/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
L
79-94
79
94
-15
67avg 83
A30/10
Euroleague
Manresa
#17
W
106-83
106
83
+23
104avg 83
H01/11
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
L
65-84
65
84
-19
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#16
W
98-93
98
93
+5
no box
A07/11
ACB
Partizan
#11
L
66-80
66
80
-14
no box
A11/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-24
22-22
19-22
25-18
18-25
18-14
24-15
17-28
21-20
19-23
14-20
25-22
19-27
16-14
18-18
22-25
19-30
27-26
23-26
17-22
16-26
23-23
20-26
20-19
30-22
20-18
33-24
23-19
18-33
14-19
9-11
24-21
27-20
27-19
24-23
20-31
18-23
20-19
22-23
6-15
168.4Avg total
80.9Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)95.084.3179.3+10.771%
Season at home (3)105.778.0183.7+27.7100%
Season away (4)87.089.0176.0-2.050%
Last 10 (10)80.987.5168.4-6.620%
Last 5 (5)82.886.8169.6-4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)80.192.8172.9-12.79%
vs Similar (11)80.883.7164.5-2.936%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)104.885.2190.0+19.5100%
This opponent (Bilbao) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1351%1402%1453%1505%1557%16010%16511%17012%17512%18010%1859%1907%1954%2003%2052%2101%2151%2200%225
1%1403%1507%16011%17012%1809%1904%2002%2101%220
Pythia expects about 179 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 180-184 (12%).
Over/Under 177
Over 177
53.7%
Under 177
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 182
Over 182
41.6%
Under 182
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 187
Over 187
30.3%
Under 187
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Bilbao total 89
Over 89
58.8%
Under 89
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilbao total 93
Over 93
43.1%
Under 93
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilbao total 97
Over 97
28.4%
Under 97
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baskonia total 85
Over 85
59.8%
Under 85
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baskonia total 89
Over 89
44.0%
Under 89
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baskonia total 93
Over 93
29.3%
Under 93
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-301%-271%-242%-212%-184%-155%-127%-98%-68%-36%+010%+310%+69%+97%+126%+154%+183%+212%+242%+271%+301%+33
0%-301%-242%-185%-128%-66%+010%+67%+124%+182%+241%+30
Margin from Bilbao's side (positive = Bilbao win). Pythia's expected margin is +3.6; Bilbao win by 1+ in 56% of simulations.
Spread Bilbao -3
BIL -3
53.9%
BAS +3
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
BIL
No market prices yet.
BAS
No market prices yet.
Spread Bilbao 0
BIL 0
62.5%
BAS 0
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
BIL
No market prices yet.
BAS
No market prices yet.
Spread Bilbao +3
BIL +3
70.8%
BAS -3
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
BIL
No market prices yet.
BAS
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: -5.2-5.2Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -2.1-2.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: -5.2-5.2Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -2.1-2.1
BilbaoBaskonia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Leyma Coruna
#13
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A04/10
ACB
Igokea
#27
W
50-35
50
35
+15
A06/10
Champions League
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H11/10
ACB
Slavia Prague ERA NBK
#50
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H14/10
Champions League
Real Madrid
#1
L
35-62
35
62
-27
A18/10
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H25/10
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A28/10
Champions League
Joventut Badalona
#14
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A01/11
ACB
Basquet Girona
#9
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A07/11
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H10/11
Champions League
86.8Avg total
43.3Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.142.384.4-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.640.383.9+3.367%-
Last 30 away (15)40.744.385.0-3.727%-
Last 10 (10)43.343.586.8-0.250%-
Last 5 (5)43.442.485.8+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)35.146.481.6-11.30%-
vs Similar (9)42.641.083.6+1.656%-
vs Weaker (14)45.441.186.4+4.364%-
This opponent (Baskonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BaskoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#16
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A16/10
Euroleague
Tenerife
#2
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A18/10
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A22/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#3
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A25/10
ACB
Real Madrid
#5
L
46-56
46
56
-10
H27/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A30/10
Euroleague
Manresa
#17
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H01/11
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
L
32-52
32
52
-20
A05/11
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#16
W
54-39
54
39
+15
A07/11
ACB
Partizan
#11
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A11/11
Euroleague
85.1Avg total
40.4Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.243.185.3-0.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.342.288.5+4.167%-
Last 30 away (15)38.144.182.2-5.913%-
Last 10 (10)40.444.785.1-4.320%-
Last 5 (5)42.644.487.0-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.348.288.5-7.99%-
vs Similar (11)38.240.578.7-2.427%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)50.439.890.1+10.6100%-
This opponent (Bilbao) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 91.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.218.5
52.6%
55.8%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.111.8
36.8%
36.4%35.4
🏀 Free throws26.619.3
72.6%
76.0%19.3
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Baskoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Baskonia: 83.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.220.0
52.4%
55.8%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.78.2
33.2%
36.4%24.6
🏀 Free throws24.718.8
76.1%
76.0%18.8
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bilbao
WLWLWLWWWL
Baskonia
LWLWLLLLLL
#8
League position
#4
+0.5
Net rating
-5.0
99.9
Offensive rating
94.9
99.4
Defensive rating
99.9
53.8%
Effective FG%
51.4%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
13.6%
Turnover %
16.2%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.39
36.8%
3-point %
33.2%
66.3%
Assist %
65.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence99.9 · 94.9Defence99.4 · 99.9Shooting53.8% · 51.4%3-point %36.8% · 33.2%Ball care13.6% · 16.2%Free throws0.40 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Bilbao   ■ Baskonia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Bilbao wins
9
Baskonia wins
DateGameScore
15/02/26Bilbao v Baskonia69-76
23/11/25Baskonia v Bilbao110-91
24/05/25Baskonia v Bilbao100-97
08/12/24Bilbao v Baskonia67-69
24/03/24Bilbao v Baskonia82-80
30/09/23Baskonia v Bilbao92-72
26/03/23Baskonia v Bilbao100-78
30/10/22Bilbao v Baskonia70-81
27/03/22Bilbao v Baskonia62-90
11/12/21Baskonia v Bilbao101-86
Bilbaolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HAlba Berlin83-75
07/11/26ABasquet Girona87-92
01/11/26AJoventut Badalona81-78
28/10/26AAlba Berlin100-103
25/10/26HMoraBanc Andorra88-76
18/10/26AReal Madrid84-119
14/10/26HSlavia Prague ERA NBK97-86
11/10/26HSan Pablo Burgos96-87
06/10/26AIgokea92-79
04/10/26ALeyma Coruna101-104 OT
Baskonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26APartizan66-80
07/11/26AForca Lleida98-93
05/11/26AFenerbahce65-84
01/11/26HManresa106-83
30/10/26ALyon-Villeurbanne79-94
27/10/26HReal Madrid86-104
25/10/26AValencia75-84
22/10/26APanathinaikos79-85
18/10/26ATenerife77-82
16/10/26AVirtus Bologna78-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bilbao
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL57%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%100%25%
Points / game92.097.088.2
Allowed / game92.685.098.2
Point differential-0.6+12.0-10.0
Avg total184.6182.0186.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %14%0%25%
Baskonia
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW71%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%100%50%
Points / game95.0105.787.0
Allowed / game84.378.089.0
Point differential+10.7+27.7-2.0
Avg total179.3183.7176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)-67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid770100%106.385.3+21.0
2 Tenerife86275%87.179.6+7.5
3 Valencia75271%99.188.0+11.1
4 Baskonia75271%95.084.3+10.7
5 Barcelona75271%97.394.4+2.9
6 Breogan85362%104.8100.1+4.6
7 Basket Zaragoza85362%92.889.1+3.6
8 Bilbao74357%92.092.6-0.6
9 Basquet Girona74357%90.797.3-6.6
10 Unicaja73443%88.786.1+2.6
11 Murcia73443%90.193.3-3.1
12 Obradoiro CAB73443%90.396.6-6.3
13 Leyma Coruna73443%91.999.9-8.0
14 Joventut Badalona83538%90.590.4+0.1
15 San Pablo Burgos82625%91.493.0-1.6
16 Forca Lleida71614%92.9105.6-12.7
17 Manresa71614%86.6102.3-15.7
18 MoraBanc Andorra81712%86.496.5-10.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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