Brasilia vs Flamengo Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 23:15

Projected 80-78

Projected total 158.4

Final 87-91

25-33 21-26 27-14 14-18

Position#7

Record3-2

FormWWWLL

Points / game84.2

Allowed / game84.4

Brasilia

58%

42%

■ BRAS 58%■ FLAM 42%

Pythia win probability

Flamengo 🏆

Position#5

Record3-1

FormLLWWW

Points / game80.5

Allowed / game69.2

NBB· Arena BRB Nilson Nelson

Other2026-27

Meetings · Brasilia v Flamengo

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Brasilia hosts Flamengo on 4 November 2026 in the NBB, with the model favouring the home side at 58% to win over Flamengo's 42% chance, a narrow 80-78 projected score that suggests a tightly contested affair. Over the season, Brasilia is 3-2 with an average of 84.2 points scored and 84.4 allowed, while Flamengo sits 3-1, scoring 80.5 and conceding 69.2, a better defensive output that has earned them a fourth place league position. At home, Brasilia is 2-1, averaging 90.3 points and 80.7 allowed, and in the last five games they have won three, including a 89-80 away win over Cruzeiro, though they suffered a narrow 76-77 loss to Botafogo at home. Flamengo, meanwhile, has won three of their last five, with three home victories over Uniao Corinthians, Caxias do Sul and Botafogo, and their last meeting on 15 May 2026 ended 72-69 in favour of Brasilia. The spread line of 3.5 gives the home team a 68% chance to cover, while the total of 160.0 carries a 45% probability of going over, and there is a 5% chance the game will extend into overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brasilia winLost

58.2%fair 1.72

Best odds2.80

Implied36.0%

Edge+22.2pp

Flamengo winWon

41.8%fair 2.39

Best odds1.50

Implied64.0%

Edge-22.2pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 03 Nov 08:29 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Brasilia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormBrasilia

Date

Competition

Franca

67-76

-9

59avg 72

A18/05

NBB

Franca

67-50

+17

61avg 72

H21/05

NBB

Franca

74-91

-17

70avg 72

H23/05

NBB

Franca

71-69

60avg 72

A26/05

NBB

Franca

66-68

-2

53avg 72

A28/05

NBB

Corinthians Paulista

#12

104-92

104

+12

109avg 72

H22/10

NBB

Paulistano

91-73

+18

85avg 72

H24/10

NBB

Cruzeiro

89-80

23avg 72

A27/10

NBB

Minas

61-100

100

-39

20avg 72

A29/10

NBB

Botafogo

#13

76-77

-1

no box

H02/11

NBB

17-19

13-25

20-13

24-7

9-19

17-12

12-28

27-20

18-16

17-27

17-10

15-20

17-14

22-25

15-21

11-21

21-16

19-10

29-28

17-17

31-27

27-20

29-22

25-16

18-16

19-19

16-21

16-28

30-11

27-20

12-26

21-17

19-24

9-33

22-16

14-20

17-23

23-18

154.2Avg total

76.6Scored

77.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	84.2	84.4	168.6	-0.2	60%
Season at home (3)	90.3	80.7	171.0	+9.7	67%
Season away (2)	75.0	90.0	165.0	-15.0	50%
Last 10 (10)	76.6	77.6	154.2	-1.0	50%
Last 5 (5)	84.2	84.4	168.6	-0.2	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	69.1	76.7	145.9	-7.6	29%
vs Similar (12)	84.9	80.8	165.8	+4.1	75%
vs Weaker (11)	77.1	67.6	144.7	+9.5	82%

This opponent (Flamengo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Flamengo

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormFlamengo

Date

Competition

Uniao Corinthians

#12

104-77

104

+27

107avg 78

H30/04

NBB

Brasilia

80-85

-5

68avg 78

A05/05

NBB

Brasilia

83-66

+17

74avg 78

H08/05

NBB

Brasilia

90-98

-8

78avg 78

H10/05

NBB

Brasilia

96-88

84avg 78

A13/05

NBB

Brasilia

69-72

-3

60avg 78

A15/05

NBB

Bauru

#11

81-82

-1

78avg 78

H18/10

NBB

Botafogo

#13

81-71

+10

80avg 78

H20/10

NBB

Caxias do Sul

#18

77-59

+18

no box

H30/10

NBB

Uniao Corinthians

#10

83-65

+18

35avg 78

H01/11

NBB

22-18

21-28

33-10

28-21

18-21

14-18

18-19

30-27

19-15

28-18

23-19

13-14

24-20

26-24

23-31

17-23

23-23

26-19

25-27

22-19

12-21

22-22

19-14

16-15

19-20

17-23

22-18

23-21

22-14

27-22

20-21

12-14

17-15

18-12

28-9

14-23

19-19

20-13

18-21

26-12

160.7Avg total

84.4Scored

76.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (4)	80.5	69.2	149.8	+11.2	75%
Season at home (4)	80.5	69.2	149.8	+11.2	75%
Season away	no games
Last 10 (10)	84.4	76.3	160.7	+8.1	60%
Last 5 (5)	78.2	69.8	148.0	+8.4	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	75.2	87.2	162.5	-12.0	50%
vs Similar (9)	84.7	83.9	168.6	+0.8	44%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	88.5	78.9	167.4	+9.5	65%

This opponent (Brasilia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 160.75Actual: Over 160.75

Over 160.75

no forecast

@ 1.72

Under 160.75

no forecast

@ 1.91

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.72

Under

1xBet

1.91

Over/Under 165.75 · main lineActual: Over 165.75

Over 165.75

no forecast

@ 1.78

Under 165.75

no forecast

@ 1.78

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.78

Under

1xBet

1.78

Over/Under 170.5Actual: Over 170.5

Over 170.5

22.8%

@ 2.72-11.5pp

Under 170.5

77.2%

@ 1.61+11.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.72

Bet365

2.70

1xBet

1.91

Under

1xBet

1.61

Bet365

1.41

Betano

1.38

📊 3. Team Totals

Brasilia total 75.5Actual: Brasilia over 75.5

Over 75.5

68.0%

@ 1.50+5.8pp

Under 75.5

32.0%

@ 2.50-5.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.43

Under

Bet365

2.50

Betano

2.42

1xBet

2.22

Brasilia total 79.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia over 79.5

Over 79.5

53.1%

@ 1.93+5.1pp

Under 79.5

46.9%

@ 1.83-5.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.93

BetVictor

1.91

Marathon Be

1.90

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.82

Under

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.78

Betano

1.75

Marathon Be

1.75

1xBet

1.64

Brasilia total 83.5Actual: Brasilia over 83.5

Over 83.5

37.7%

@ 2.72+3.2pp

Under 83.5

62.3%

@ 1.40-3.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.72

Betano

2.65

1xBet

2.54

Under

Betano

1.40

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.34

Flamengo total 80.5Actual: Flamengo over 80.5

Over 80.5

40.1%

@ 1.53-19.9pp

Under 80.5

59.9%

@ 2.40+19.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.53

Bet365

1.52

1xBet

1.48

Under

Bet365

2.40

Betano

2.30

1xBet

2.10

Flamengo total 84.5 · main lineActual: Flamengo over 84.5

Over 84.5

26.4%

@ 2.02-20.4pp

Under 84.5

73.6%

@ 1.83+20.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.02

1xBet

1.91

Marathon Be

1.88

Bet365

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.76

Betano

1.67

1xBet

1.58

Flamengo total 88.5Actual: Flamengo over 88.5

Over 88.5

15.7%

@ 2.72-18.6pp

Under 88.5

84.3%

@ 1.44+18.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.72

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.55

Under

Betano

1.44

Bet365

1.41

1xBet

1.31

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Brasilia +1.5Actual: Flamengo -1.5

BRAS +1.5

60.9%

@ 2.60+18.8pp

FLAM -1.5

39.1%

@ 1.60-18.8pp

Best 5 market prices

BRAS

Bet365

2.60

Betano

2.30

1xBet

2.26

Pinnacle

2.20

FLAM

Pinnacle

1.60

Betano

1.52

Marathon Be

1.50

Bet365

1.45

1xBet

1.45

Spread Brasilia +4.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia +4.5

BRAS +4.5

71.3%

@ 2.05+21.0pp

FLAM -4.5

28.7%

@ 1.88-21.0pp

Best 5 market prices

BRAS

Bet365

2.05

BetVictor

1.88

Betano

1.87

Pinnacle

1.86

1xBet

1.85

FLAM

Pinnacle

1.88

Betfair

1.83

SBO

1.83

BetVictor

1.83

1xBet

1.82

Spread Brasilia +7.5Actual: Brasilia +7.5

BRAS +7.5

79.9%

@ 1.68+21.4pp

FLAM -7.5

20.1%

@ 2.23-21.4pp

Best 5 market prices

BRAS

Bet365

1.68

Betano

1.57

Marathon Be

1.55

1xBet

1.47

FLAM

1xBet

2.23

Betano

2.22

Bet365

2.05

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

BrasiliaFlamengo

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	20.1	19.0	39.1	+1.2	50%	30%
Last 30 at home (17)	21.7	18.6	40.4	+3.1	65%	35%
Last 30 away (13)	18.1	19.4	37.5	-1.3	31%	23%
Last 10 (10)	19.3	19.8	39.1	-0.5	50%	20%
Last 5 (5)	21.6	22.6	44.2	-1.0	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	17.3	18.0	35.3	-0.7	43%	0%
vs Similar (12)	21.2	19.9	41.2	+1.3	50%	50%
vs Weaker (11)	20.7	18.5	39.3	+2.2	55%	27%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	21.6	19.9	41.5	+1.8	50%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.8	19.4	42.2	+3.5	71%	53%
Last 30 away (13)	20.1	20.5	40.6	-0.5	23%	54%
Last 10 (10)	19.5	18.6	38.1	+0.9	50%	20%
Last 5 (5)	17.8	17.8	35.6	+0.0	40%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	20.8	19.2	40.0	+1.5	50%	50%
vs Similar (9)	21.4	22.0	43.4	-0.6	44%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	21.9	18.9	40.8	+3.1	53%	47%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39.5
Last 30 (30)	17.7	18.6	36.3	-0.9	40%	40%
Last 30 at home (17)	18.3	18.8	37.1	-0.5	41%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	16.9	18.4	35.3	-1.5	38%	38%
Last 10 (10)	17.2	19.7	36.9	-2.5	30%	30%
Last 5 (5)	18.6	19.6	38.2	-1.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	15.9	19.1	35.0	-3.3	29%	14%
vs Similar (12)	19.5	21.5	41.0	-2.0	33%	67%
vs Weaker (11)	16.9	15.2	32.1	+1.7	55%	27%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39.5
Last 30 (30)	22.0	21.1	43.0	+0.9	57%	77%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.9	20.1	43.0	+2.8	71%	71%
Last 30 away (13)	20.8	22.3	43.1	-1.5	38%	85%
Last 10 (10)	21.9	19.9	41.8	+2.0	60%	70%
Last 5 (5)	20.8	18.4	39.2	+2.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	17.2	26.5	43.8	-9.2	0%	100%
vs Similar (9)	22.3	19.8	42.1	+2.6	67%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	22.9	20.5	43.4	+2.4	65%	76%

BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Franca

34-38

-4

A18/05

NBB

Franca

33-26

H21/05

NBB

Franca

39-48

-9

H23/05

NBB

Franca

32-30

A26/05

NBB

Franca

26-42

-16

A28/05

NBB

Corinthians Paulista

#12

46-45

H22/10

NBB

Paulistano

54-38

+16

H24/10

NBB

Cruzeiro

32-49

-17

A27/10

NBB

Minas

33-43

-10

A29/10

NBB

Botafogo

#13

36-36

H02/11

NBB

76.0Avg total

36.5Scored

39.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83
Last 30 (30)	37.8	37.6	75.4	+0.2	50%	27%
Last 30 at home (17)	40.0	37.5	77.5	+2.5	59%	35%
Last 30 away (13)	35.0	37.8	72.8	-2.8	38%	15%
Last 10 (10)	36.5	39.5	76.0	-3.0	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	40.2	42.2	82.4	-2.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	33.1	37.1	70.3	-4.0	43%	14%
vs Similar (12)	40.8	41.4	82.2	-0.7	42%	42%
vs Weaker (11)	37.6	33.7	71.4	+3.9	64%	18%

This opponent (Flamengo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

FlamengoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Uniao Corinthians

#12

43-46

-3

H30/04

NBB

Brasilia

32-39

-7

A05/05

NBB

Brasilia

47-33

+14

H08/05

NBB

Brasilia

50-44

H10/05

NBB

Brasilia

49-42

A13/05

NBB

Brasilia

34-43

-9

A15/05

NBB

Bauru

#11

36-43

-7

H18/10

NBB

Botafogo

#13

49-36

+13

H20/10

NBB

Caxias do Sul

#18

35-27

H30/10

NBB

Uniao Corinthians

#10

39-32

H01/11

NBB

79.9Avg total

41.4Scored

38.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83
Last 30 (30)	43.6	40.9	84.5	+2.7	63%	57%
Last 30 at home (17)	45.7	39.5	85.2	+6.2	71%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	40.8	42.8	83.7	-2.0	54%	54%
Last 10 (10)	41.4	38.5	79.9	+2.9	60%	40%
Last 5 (5)	38.6	36.2	74.8	+2.4	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	38.0	45.8	83.8	-7.8	50%	25%
vs Similar (9)	43.8	41.8	85.6	+2.0	56%	56%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	44.8	39.4	84.2	+5.5	71%	65%

This opponent (Brasilia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Flamengo win

BRAS win

no forecast

@ 2.50

FLAM win

no forecast

@ 1.57

1st half Spread Brasilia +0.5 · main lineActual: Flamengo -0.5

BRAS +0.5

no forecast

@ 2.30

FLAM -0.5

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half Over/Under 83 · main lineActual: Over 83

Over

no forecast

@ 1.88

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

Brasilia 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia over 39.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.88

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

Flamengo 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Flamengo over 42.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.00

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half: BRAS + total 82.5

BRAS & over

no forecast

@ 5.00

BRAS & under

no forecast

@ 4.75

1st half: Draw + total 82.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 29.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: FLAM + total 82.5

FLAM & over

no forecast

@ 3.10

FLAM & under

no forecast

@ 2.90

1st half Over/Under 81.75Actual: Over 81.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.89

Under

no forecast

@ 1.74

1st half Over/Under 84.25Actual: Over 84.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.74

Under

no forecast

@ 1.89

1st half Spread Brasilia -0.5Actual: Flamengo +0.5

BRAS -0.5

no forecast

@ 2.15

FLAM +0.5

no forecast

@ 1.62

1st half Spread Brasilia +1.5Actual: Flamengo -1.5

BRAS +1.5

no forecast

@ 2.02

FLAM -1.5

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Over 80.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.82

Under

no forecast

@ 2.22

1st half Over/Under 85.5Actual: Over 85.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.15

Under

no forecast

@ 1.69

1st half Spread Brasilia -1.5Actual: Flamengo +1.5

BRAS -1.5

no forecast

@ 2.75

FLAM +1.5

no forecast

@ 1.52

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Flamengo (regulation)

BRAS

no forecast

@ 2.55

Draw

no forecast

@ 17.00

FLAM

no forecast

@ 1.62

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39
Last 30 (30)	20.4	19.0	39.5	+1.4	60%	47%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.2	18.6	38.9	+1.6	71%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	20.7	19.5	40.2	+1.2	46%	54%
Last 10 (10)	20.1	18.4	38.5	+1.7	70%	40%
Last 5 (5)	23.0	20.2	43.2	+2.8	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	17.7	18.7	36.4	-1.0	57%	29%
vs Similar (12)	21.5	19.8	41.2	+1.8	58%	58%
vs Weaker (11)	21.0	18.5	39.5	+2.5	64%	45%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39
Last 30 (30)	20.2	19.3	39.5	+0.9	47%	50%
Last 30 at home (17)	21.5	19.1	40.6	+2.4	59%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	18.5	19.5	38.1	-1.0	31%	38%
Last 10 (10)	22.9	18.9	41.8	+4.0	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	21.4	16.6	38.0	+4.8	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	16.2	19.2	35.5	-3.0	25%	25%
vs Similar (9)	20.3	21.6	41.9	-1.2	44%	56%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	21.1	18.1	39.2	+2.9	53%	53%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	19.6	17.8	37.4	+1.8	63%	37%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.7	18.8	39.5	+1.9	59%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	18.1	16.5	34.6	+1.5	69%	31%
Last 10 (10)	20.0	19.7	39.7	+0.3	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	21.0	22.0	43.0	-1.0	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	17.4	19.3	36.7	-1.9	57%	43%
vs Similar (12)	21.8	19.1	40.9	+2.8	67%	50%
vs Weaker (11)	18.5	15.5	33.9	+3.0	64%	18%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	21.5	20.8	42.3	+0.7	47%	50%
Last 30 at home (17)	21.5	20.6	42.2	+0.9	47%	53%
Last 30 away (13)	21.4	21.0	42.4	+0.4	46%	46%
Last 10 (10)	20.1	18.9	39.0	+1.2	60%	40%
Last 5 (5)	18.2	17.0	35.2	+1.2	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	21.0	22.2	43.2	-1.2	50%	25%
vs Similar (9)	20.6	20.6	41.1	+0.0	56%	56%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	22.1	20.6	42.6	+1.5	41%	53%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 80
Last 30 (30)	40.0	36.8	76.8	+3.2	50%	40%
Last 30 at home (17)	40.9	37.4	78.4	+3.5	53%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	38.8	36.1	74.8	+2.7	46%	31%
Last 10 (10)	40.1	38.1	78.2	+2.0	50%	40%
Last 5 (5)	44.0	42.2	86.2	+1.8	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)	35.1	38.0	73.1	-2.9	29%	14%
vs Similar (12)	43.3	38.8	82.2	+4.5	50%	67%
vs Weaker (11)	39.5	33.9	73.4	+5.5	64%	27%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 80
Last 30 (30)	41.7	40.1	81.8	+1.6	53%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	43.0	39.8	82.8	+3.2	59%	53%
Last 30 away (13)	39.9	40.5	80.5	-0.6	46%	54%
Last 10 (10)	43.0	37.8	80.8	+5.2	80%	50%
Last 5 (5)	39.6	33.6	73.2	+6.0	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	37.2	41.5	78.8	-4.2	0%	25%
vs Similar (9)	40.9	42.1	83.0	-1.2	67%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	43.1	38.7	81.8	+4.4	59%	53%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

BRAS win + total 165.5

🔒 Pro

FLAM win + total 165.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: BRAS leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: FLAM leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (BRAS:FLAM): BRAS wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Flamengo under 86	78.8%	1.71	1xBet 1.71	-	-	-	-	+28.5pp	Lost
Brasilia +8	81.9%	1.64	Bet365 1.64	-	-	-	-	+25.5pp	Won
Brasilia +9	84.2%	1.57	Bet365 1.57	-	-	-	-	+25.3pp	Won
Brasilia +10	86.2%	1.50	Bet365 1.50	-	-	-	-	+23.7pp	Won
Flamengo under 85	75.9%	1.68	Marathon Bet 1.74	1xBet 1.62	-	-	-	+23.1pp	Lost
Brasilia +11	88.0%	1.43	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	-	+23.0pp	Won
Brasilia +4	70.3%	1.94	Bet365 2.12	Pinnacle 1.94	SBO 1.91	Marathon Bet 1.91	1xBet 1.84	+22.3pp	Push
Brasilia +12	89.6%	1.37	Bet365 1.37	-	-	-	-	+22.0pp	Won
Brasilia +7.5	79.9%	1.57	Bet365 1.68	Betano 1.57	Marathon Bet 1.55	1xBet 1.47	-	+21.4pp	Won
Brasilia +5	73.6%	1.82	Bet365 1.95	1xBet 1.81	Marathon Bet 1.80	Pinnacle 1.78	SBO 1.75	+21.3pp	Won
Brasilia +8.5	82.3%	1.50	Bet365 1.60	Betano 1.50	1xBet 1.39	-	-	+21.1pp	Won
Brasilia +4.5	71.3%	1.88	Bet365 2.05	BetVictor 1.88	Betano 1.87	Pinnacle 1.86	1xBet 1.85	+21.0pp	Won
Flamengo under 89.5	86.5%	1.37	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.41	1xBet 1.28	-	-	+20.8pp	Lost
Brasilia +13	91.0%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+20.5pp	Won
Brasilia +6	76.6%	1.72	Bet365 1.83	Marathon Bet 1.67	Pinnacle 1.65	-	-	+20.5pp	Won
Flamengo under 84.5	73.6%	1.71	Bet365 1.83	Marathon Bet 1.76	Betano 1.67	1xBet 1.58	-	+20.4pp	Lost
Brasilia +11.5	88.2%	1.36	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.32	-	-	-	+20.3pp	Won
Flamengo under 90.5	88.4%	1.33	1xBet 1.35	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	+20.2pp	Lost
Brasilia +13.5	91.1%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+20.2pp	Won
Brasilia +5.5	74.4%	1.74	Bet365 1.86	Betano 1.75	Marathon Bet 1.73	Betfair 1.73	Pinnacle 1.71	+20.1pp	Won
Brasilia +7	79.4%	1.63	Bet365 1.74	Marathon Bet 1.58	Pinnacle 1.56	-	-	+20.1pp	Won
Under 167	70.9%	1.70	SBO 1.88	Pinnacle 1.84	1xBet 1.78	Marathon Bet 1.52	Bet365 1.50	+20.1pp	Lost
Flamengo under 84	72.7%	1.68	Marathon Bet 1.74	1xBet 1.62	-	-	-	+19.9pp	Lost
Brasilia +9.5	84.5%	1.43	Bet365 1.54	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.32	-	-	+19.8pp	Won
Brasilia +6.5	77.3%	1.65	Bet365 1.80	Betano 1.65	Marathon Bet 1.63	Pinnacle 1.61	1xBet 1.56	+19.7pp	Won
Under 168	72.9%	1.64	1xBet 1.78	Pinnacle 1.75	Marathon Bet 1.56	Bet365 1.45	-	+19.5pp	Lost
Flamengo under 83.5	70.4%	1.79	Bet365 1.86	Marathon Bet 1.81	Betano 1.80	BetVictor 1.78	1xBet 1.68	+19.5pp	Lost
Brasilia +14	92.2%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+19.4pp	Won
Under 167.5	71.5%	1.65	1xBet 1.84	SBO 1.84	Pinnacle 1.79	Marathon Bet 1.50	Betano 1.47	+19.4pp	Lost
Brasilia +10.5	86.4%	1.37	Bet365 1.47	Betano 1.37	1xBet 1.28	-	-	+19.3pp	Won
Brasilia +12.5	89.7%	1.31	Bet365 1.35	Betano 1.27	-	-	-	+19.2pp	Won
Flamengo under 85.5	76.6%	1.55	Betano 1.60	1xBet 1.50	-	-	-	+19.0pp	Lost
Under 168.5	73.5%	1.57	1xBet 1.74	Pinnacle 1.71	Marathon Bet 1.53	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.42	+18.8pp	Lost
Flamengo under 91.5	90.1%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+18.7pp	Won
Flamengo under 88.5	84.3%	1.39	Betano 1.44	Bet365 1.41	1xBet 1.31	-	-	+18.6pp	Lost
Flamengo under 86.5	79.4%	1.49	Bet365 1.55	Betano 1.50	1xBet 1.42	-	-	+18.2pp	Lost
Brasilia +15.5	93.4%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+18.1pp	Won
Flamengo under 87.5	82.0%	1.45	Bet365 1.57	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.36	-	-	+17.5pp	Lost
Under 169	74.9%	1.55	1xBet 1.71	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	+16.3pp	Lost
Under 172.5	80.6%	1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	-	+15.1pp	Lost
Under 173.5	82.1%	1.34	Betano 1.40	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	+13.4pp	Lost
Brasilia +20.5	97.0%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+12.6pp	Won
Under 171	78.5%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+12.3pp	Lost
Under 170	76.8%	1.44	Bet365 1.44	-	-	-	-	+12.2pp	Lost
Under 171.5	78.9%	1.38	Betano 1.45	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	+11.5pp	Lost
Under 170.5	77.2%	1.47	1xBet 1.61	Bet365 1.41	Betano 1.38	-	-	+11.5pp	Lost
Brasilia +17.5	95.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Won
Brasilia +18.5	95.9%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+9.8pp	Won
Brasilia under 86.5	72.7%	1.39	1xBet 1.39	-	-	-	-	+9.7pp	Lost
Under 178.5	88.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+9.1pp	Won
Under 169.5	75.4%	1.48	1xBet 1.67	Betano 1.38	Bet365 1.38	-	-	+9.0pp	Lost
Brasilia over 68.5	87.5%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Brasilia +23.5	98.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Won
Brasilia +22.5	97.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Won
Brasilia over 66.5	91.1%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Brasilia over 73.5	74.6%	1.34	Bet365 1.37	1xBet 1.31	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Under 183.5	93.1%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Brasilia over 74.5	71.4%	1.40	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.37	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Under 176.5	86.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Lost
Brasilia over 69.5	85.4%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Brasilia over 71.5	80.4%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Brasilia over 67.5	89.4%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Under 186.5	95.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Under 175.5	85.0%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Lost
Under 181.5	91.5%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Brasilia under 90.5	83.9%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Under 185.5	94.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Under 180.5	90.6%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
Overtime: no	94.7%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	-
Brasilia under 95.5	92.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Flamengo +22.5	95.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Flamengo +21.5	94.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Brasilia over 70.5	83.0%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
Brasilia under 93.5	89.9%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+1.6pp	Won
Over 135.5	91.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+1.2pp	Won
Flamengo +17.5	90.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Flamengo +19.5	92.9%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Brasilia under 91.5	86.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Over 136.5	90.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Brasilia under 89.5	81.4%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+0.0pp	Won
Flamengo +16.5	89.0%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	-0.0pp	Won
Flamengo over 62.5	93.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	-0.3pp	Won
Brasilia under 88.5	78.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-0.8pp	Won
Flamengo over 63.5	92.0%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	-0.8pp	Won
Flamengo over 64.5	90.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	-1.1pp	Won
Over 140.5	85.8%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	-1.4pp	Won
Over 138.5	88.4%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	-1.8pp	Won
Brasilia under 87.5	75.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-2.0pp	Won
Over 145.5	77.7%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Over 141.5	84.4%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Flamengo over 65.5	88.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Flamengo over 66.5	86.7%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	-3.5pp	Won
Flamengo +14.5	85.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	-4.1pp	Won
Flamengo +12.5	81.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-4.2pp	Won
Over 146.5	75.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-4.7pp	Won
Flamengo +11.5	78.9%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	-4.9pp	Won
Flamengo over 67.5	84.5%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	-5.7pp	Won
Over 143.5	81.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	-5.9pp	Won
Flamengo over 68.5	82.0%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	-6.7pp	Won
Over 148.5	71.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-8.6pp	Won
Flamengo over 69.5	79.3%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	-9.0pp	Won
Flamengo over 70.5	76.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-9.7pp	Won
Flamengo +9.5	73.5%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-12.1pp	Won
Flamengo over 72.5	70.0%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	-12.3pp	Won
Flamengo over 71.5	73.3%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-12.8pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 67.9 points a game scored

🏀🏀46%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers31.4 pts a game · 46% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	31.2	15.7	50.3%	49.8%	31.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.0	8.9	33.0%	31.6%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	13.3	9.8	73.7%	71.3%	9.8

They take 58.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Flamengotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Flamengo: 81.3 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.7	19.0	56.4%	49.8%	38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.5	10.6	32.6%	31.6%	31.8
🏀 Free throws	16.8	11.5	68.5%	71.3%	11.5

They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.0	16.3	50.9%	49.8%	32.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.3	8.9	31.4%	31.6%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	16.6	12.1	72.9%	71.3%	12.1

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.3	18.5	52.4%	49.8%	37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.4	7.9	28.8%	31.6%	23.7
🏀 Free throws	19.0	13.2	69.5%	71.3%	13.2

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.5	17.7	52.8%	49.8%	35.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.8	9.5	32.9%	31.6%	28.4
🏀 Free throws	16.7	11.8	70.8%	71.3%	11.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.0	18.2	55.1%	49.8%	36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.3	11.5	35.5%	31.6%	34.4
🏀 Free throws	19.1	13.5	70.9%	71.3%	13.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.5	16.9	51.8%	49.8%	33.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.4	9.5	30.3%	31.6%	28.5
🏀 Free throws	16.3	11.6	71.5%	71.3%	11.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.2	18.9	52.3%	49.8%	37.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.8	8.6	30.8%	31.6%	25.7
🏀 Free throws	22.3	15.7	70.7%	71.3%	15.7

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Brasilia

LLWWWLWLWL

Flamengo

WWWLLWLWLW

League position

-4.5

Net rating

+8.7

87.1

Offensive rating

95.1

91.6

Defensive rating

86.5

49.9%

Effective FG%

52.7%

49.2%

Opp. effective FG%

48.4%

15.8%

Turnover %

14.3%

0.23

Free-throw rate

0.25

33.0%

3-point %

32.6%

63.4%

Assist %

63.9%

50%

Form (last 10/10)

60%

Profile

■ Brasilia ■ Flamengo

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Brasilia wins

Flamengo wins

Date	Game	Score
15/05/26	Brasilia v Flamengo	72-69
13/05/26	Brasilia v Flamengo	88-96
10/05/26	Flamengo v Brasilia	90-98
08/05/26	Flamengo v Brasilia	83-66
05/05/26	Brasilia v Flamengo	85-80
25/03/26	Brasilia v Flamengo	89-87
20/11/25	Flamengo v Brasilia	83-85
08/04/25	Brasilia v Flamengo	79-88
07/12/24	Flamengo v Brasilia	90-84
17/02/24	Brasilia v Flamengo	74-86

Brasilialast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
02/11/26	H	Botafogo	76-77
29/10/26	A	Minas	61-100
27/10/26	A	Cruzeiro	89-80
24/10/26	H	Paulistano	91-73
22/10/26	H	Corinthians Paulista	104-92
28/05/26	A	Franca	66-68
26/05/26	A	Franca	71-69
23/05/26	H	Franca	74-91
21/05/26	H	Franca	67-50
18/05/26	A	Franca	67-76

Flamengolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
01/11/26	H	Uniao Corinthians	83-65
30/10/26	H	Caxias do Sul	77-59
20/10/26	H	Botafogo	81-71
18/10/26	H	Bauru	81-82
15/05/26	A	Brasilia	69-72
13/05/26	A	Brasilia	96-88
10/05/26	H	Brasilia	90-98
08/05/26	H	Brasilia	83-66
05/05/26	A	Brasilia	80-85
30/04/26	H	Uniao Corinthians	104-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brasilia

NBB 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWLL	60%
Home	WWL	67%
Away	WL	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	3	2
Win %	60%	67%	50%
Points / game	84.2	90.3	75.0
Allowed / game	84.4	80.7	90.0
Point differential	-0.2	+9.7	-15.0
Avg total	168.6	171.0	165.0
Over 165.75	40%	33%	50%
Win by 10+	40%	67%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	0% (1)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Flamengo

NBB 2026-27

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWW	75%
Home	LWWW	75%
Away	-	-

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	4	4	-
Win %	75%	75%	-
Points / game	80.5	80.5	-
Allowed / game	69.2	69.2	-
Point differential	+11.2	+11.2	-
Avg total	149.8	149.8	-
Over 165.75	0%	0%	-
Win by 10+	75%	75%	-
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	0% (1)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	-

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Minas	5	5	0	100%	87.8	67.8	+20.0
2	Pinheiros	5	4	1	80%	83.6	66.8	+16.8
3	Unifacisa	5	4	1	80%	83.0	71.8	+11.2
4	Mogi	5	4	1	80%	80.8	74.4	+6.4
5	Flamengo	4	3	1	75%	80.5	69.2	+11.2
6	Cruzeiro	5	3	2	60%	76.0	75.0	+1.0
7	Brasilia	5	3	2	60%	84.2	84.4	-0.2
8	Paulistano	5	3	2	60%	72.8	74.6	-1.8
9	Franca	5	2	3	40%	73.2	72.6	+0.6
10	Bauru	5	2	3	40%	75.0	77.8	-2.8
11	Botafogo	5	2	3	40%	80.0	83.0	-3.0
12	Uniao Corinthians	5	2	3	40%	73.8	80.0	-6.2
13	Corinthians Paulista	3	1	2	33%	81.0	78.7	+2.3
14	Osasco	3	1	2	33%	79.0	84.7	-5.7
15	Sao Jose	4	1	3	25%	76.5	80.8	-4.2
16	Pato	4	1	3	25%	74.0	82.5	-8.5
17	Caxias do Sul	5	0	5	0%	64.2	80.4	-16.2
18	Cearense	4	0	4	0%	65.8	94.0	-28.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Brasilia	25	21	27	14	87
Flamengo	33	26	14	18	91

← all games of the day

Brasilia vs Flamengo Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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