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Buffalo vs Canisius Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Projected 83-67
Projected total 149.9
Scheduled
Position#279
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game79.0
Buffalo
USA
Vs
91%
■ BUFF 91%■ CANI 9%
Pythia win probability
Canisius
USA
Position#236
Record2-2
FormLLLWW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game81.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Buffalo v Canisius
15 Nov 2026
BUFF v CANI
upcoming
27 Nov 2022
BUFF86
CANI66
18 Dec 2019
BUFF82
CANI73
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Buffalo hosts Canisius on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and Pythia rates the Bulls as the clear favourite, assigning them a 91% chance of victory largely because of their 1-2 record and a 77.7 points per game average, while Canisius sits at 2-2 with 77.2 points per game; the Bulls also boast a 107.0 points per game home output and a 65.0 points allowed, whereas Canisius averages 71.5 points on the road and allows 89.0, a stark contrast that underpins the model's confidence. Buffalo's season record of 1-2, with a 77.7 points scored and 79.0 allowed, sits at league position 278, and their single home game shows a 1-0 record, 107.0 points scored and 65.0 allowed; their last five games include one win and four losses, highlighted by a 107-65 victory over Penn State-Schuylkill. Canisius, with a 2-2 record, 77.2 points scored and 81.5 allowed, sits at league position 233, and their road record is 1-1 with 71.5 points scored and 89.0 allowed; their last five games feature two wins and three losses, including a 117-60 win over Hiram. The teams have met four times, Buffalo winning three of those encounters, most recently 71-53 on 29 November 2025. Pythia projects a 83-67 score, a 149.9 total, and gives Buffalo a 51% chance to cover the -15.5 line while the over on 152.5 has a 43% probability, with a 2% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Buffalo win
91.5%fair 1.09
Best odds1.08
Implied89.4%
Edge+2.1pp
Canisius win
8.5%fair 11.74
Best odds9.50
Implied10.6%
Edge-2.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
L
70-72
70
72
-2
H17/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
86-82 OT
86
82
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
85-99
85
99
-14
A25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
70-75
70
75
-5
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
72-67
72
67
+5
H03/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
78-98
78
98
-20
A07/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
70-73
70
73
-3
A12/03
NCAA
Marshall
#301
L
65-92
65
92
-27
A03/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#58
L
61-80
61
80
-19
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Schuylkill
#458
W
107-65
107
65
+42
H09/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-29
35-43
29-34
39-34
35-39
50-60
26-34
44-41
43-27
29-40
33-37
45-61
29-42
41-31
24-45
41-47
45-32
16-48
58-31
49-34
156.7Avg total
76.4Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)77.779.0156.7-1.333%
Season at home (1)107.065.0172.0+42.0100%
Season away (2)63.086.0149.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)76.480.3156.7-3.930%
Last 5 (5)76.281.6157.8-5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)78.083.6161.6-5.625%
vs Similar ◀ (11)75.181.5156.5-6.427%
vs Weaker (9)74.868.8143.6+6.067%
This opponent (Canisius) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CanisiusUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
L
63-69
63
69
-6
H14/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
L
65-69
65
69
-4
H15/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
72-66
72
66
+6
A21/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
47-68
47
68
-21
A22/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
67-62
67
62
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
L
63-67
63
67
-4
H01/03
NCAA
Penn State
#179
L
57-97
57
97
-40
A03/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#100
L
49-88
49
88
-39
H08/11
NCAA
Hiram
#509
W
117-60
117
60
+57
H09/11
NCAA
Brown
#334
W
86-81
86
81
+5
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-34
39-35
27-37
38-32
40-30
32-36
24-20
23-48
29-32
38-30
30-29
33-38
26-47
31-50
14-43
35-45
57-19
60-41
44-30
42-51
141.3Avg total
68.6Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.281.5158.8-4.250%
Season at home (2)83.074.0157.0+9.050%
Season away (2)71.589.0160.5-17.550%
Last 10 (10)68.672.7141.3-4.140%
Last 5 (5)74.478.6153.0-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)61.275.6136.8-14.315%
vs Similar ◀ (8)67.063.0130.0+4.062%
vs Weaker (1)72.066.0138.0+6.0100%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5
Over 146.5
58.2%
@ 1.53-5.1pp
Under 146.5
41.8%
@ 2.75+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.32
Over/Under 151.5 · main line
Over 151.5
45.9%
@ 1.98-3.8pp
Under 151.5
54.1%
@ 2.00+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 156.5
Over 156.5
34.0%
@ 2.57-3.3pp
Under 156.5
66.0%
@ 1.52+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.44

📊 3. Team Totals

Buffalo total 79
Over 79
65.9%
Under 79
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buffalo total 83 · main line
Over 83
49.6%
@ 1.85-0.4pp
Under 83
50.4%
@ 1.85+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Buffalo total 87
Over 87
33.3%
Under 87
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Canisius total 64
Over 64
62.0%
Under 64
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Canisius total 68 · main line
Over 68
45.6%
@ 1.85-5.2pp
Under 68
54.4%
@ 1.88+5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Canisius total 72
Over 72
30.1%
Under 72
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Buffalo -17
BUFF -17
45.5%
@ 2.05+0.5pp
CANI +17
54.5%
@ 1.68-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BUFF
Bet365
2.05
CANI
Bet365
1.68
Spread Buffalo -14 · main line
BUFF -14
56.6%
@ 1.88+5.5pp
CANI +14
43.4%
@ 2.05-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BUFF
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.68
CANI
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.88
Spread Buffalo -11
BUFF -11
67.2%
@ 1.41+1.5pp
CANI +11
32.8%
@ 2.70-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BUFF
Bet365
1.41
CANI
Bet365
2.70

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: -3.5-3.5
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: -3.5-3.5
BuffaloCanisius
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H17/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H03/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A07/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A12/03
NCAA
Marshall
#301
L
24-45
24
45
-21
A03/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#58
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Schuylkill
#458
W
58-31
58
31
+27
H09/11
NCAA
70.7Avg total
35.7Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73
Last 30 (30)36.735.772.4+1.050%37%
Last 30 at home (13)36.135.671.7+0.538%31%
Last 30 away (17)37.235.772.9+1.559%41%
Last 10 (10)35.735.070.7+0.740%30%
Last 5 (5)37.837.475.2+0.440%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.139.476.5-2.238%50%
vs Similar ◀ (11)31.838.069.8-6.227%27%
vs Weaker (9)38.329.968.2+8.478%22%
This opponent (Canisius) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CanisiusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
L
24-34
24
34
-10
H14/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H15/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A21/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
W
24-20
24
20
+4
A22/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H01/03
NCAA
Penn State
#179
L
26-47
26
47
-21
A03/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#100
L
14-43
14
43
-29
H08/11
NCAA
Hiram
#509
W
57-19
57
19
+38
H09/11
NCAA
Brown
#334
W
44-30
44
30
+14
A13/11
NCAA
63.6Avg total
31.5Scored
32.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73
Last 30 (30)30.432.863.2-2.333%17%
Last 30 at home (15)30.633.163.7-2.533%20%
Last 30 away (15)30.332.562.7-2.233%13%
Last 10 (10)31.532.163.6-0.650%20%
Last 5 (5)34.233.667.8+0.660%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)28.435.063.4-6.625%15%
vs Similar ◀ (8)31.129.260.4+1.938%12%
vs Weaker (1)40.030.070.0+10.0100%0%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
BUFF win
no forecast
@ 1.17
CANI win
no forecast
@ 5.20
1st half Spread Buffalo -8.5 · main line
BUFF -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
CANI +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Buffalo 1st half total 41 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Canisius 1st half total 32.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Buffalo -9.5
BUFF -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
CANI +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Buffalo -7.5
BUFF -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
CANI +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Spread Buffalo -10.5
BUFF -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
CANI +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Buffalo -6.5
BUFF -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
CANI +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Buffalo -11.5
BUFF -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
CANI +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Buffalo -5.5
BUFF -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
CANI +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
BUFF
no forecast
@ 1.20
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
CANI
no forecast
@ 5.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
BUFF win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
CANI win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BUFF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CANI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Buffalo -779.3%1.27
Bet365
1.27		----+6.2pp
Buffalo -6.579.8%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+5.8pp
Under 15971.8%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+4.9pp
Canisius under 73.574.2%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+4.4pp
Buffalo under 88.571.5%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+3.6pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 31 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Buffalo wins
1
Canisius wins
DateGameScore
29/11/25Canisius v Buffalo53-71
27/11/22Buffalo v Canisius86-66
18/12/21Canisius v Buffalo65-64
19/12/19Buffalo v Canisius82-73
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/26HPenn State-Schuylkill107-65
06/11/26APittsburgh61-80
03/11/26AMarshall65-92
12/03/26AAkron70-73
07/03/26AToledo78-98
03/03/26HEastern Michigan72-67
28/02/26HCentral Michigan70-75
25/02/26AAkron85-99
21/02/26AUMass86-82 OT
17/02/26HNorthern Illinois70-72
Canisiuslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26ABrown86-81
09/11/26HHiram117-60
08/11/26HSt. Bonaventure49-88
03/11/26APenn State57-97
01/03/26HQuinnipiac63-67
28/02/26HMerrimack Warriors67-62
22/02/26AMount St. Mary's47-68
21/02/26ARider72-66
15/02/26HManhattan65-69
14/02/26HIona63-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Buffalo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game77.7107.063.0
Allowed / game79.065.086.0
Point differential-1.3+42.0-23.0
Avg total156.7172.0149.0
Over 151.567%100%50%
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Canisius
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game77.283.071.5
Allowed / game81.574.089.0
Point differential-4.2+9.0-17.5
Avg total158.8157.0160.5
Over 151.575%50%100%
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron330100%84.062.7+21.3
2 Central Michigan440100%83.865.8+18.0
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Miami (Ohio)330100%84.076.0+8.0
5 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
6 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
7 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
8 Ohio32167%76.075.7+0.3
9 Northern Illinois53260%79.473.2+6.2
10 Toledo52340%73.077.2-4.2
11 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Ball State41325%68.872.5-3.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
6 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
7 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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