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Bulgaria vs Sweden Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 20 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 81-77 (OT)
25-22 9-17 24-15 12-16 11-7
Position#13
Record9-5
FormWLWLL
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game74.4
vs
Position#26
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game72.0
Allowed / game79.2
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· Arena Botevgrad
Other2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bulgaria winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sweden winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBulgaria
Date
Competition
Romania
#16
W
62-61
62
61
+1
no box
A23/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
W
90-82
90
82
+8
no box
H26/02
EuroBasket
Norway
#28
L
80-86
80
86
-6
no box
A19/07
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
83-71
83
71
+12
no box
H22/07
EuroBasket
Norway
#28
W
91-69
91
69
+22
no box
H29/07
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
85-71
85
71
+14
no box
A02/08
EuroBasket
Sweden
#26
L
70-84
70
84
-14
59avg 60
A22/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
W
67-62
67
62
+5
57avg 60
H25/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
62-85
62
85
-23
44avg 60
A22/11
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
86-90
86
90
-4
80avg 60
H25/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-12
15-13
13-19
18-17
19-19
24-21
27-18
20-24
21-22
18-27
8-19
33-18
15-20
19-7
26-20
23-24
20-14
30-20
24-17
17-18
28-13
25-25
16-14
16-19
22-29
21-21
12-12
15-22
7-19
21-8
11-18
28-17
16-20
11-24
25-21
10-20
21-22
27-19
19-25
19-24
153.7Avg total
77.6Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)78.674.4153.1+4.264%
Season at home (7)84.171.6155.7+12.686%
Season away (7)73.177.3150.4-4.143%
Last 10 (10)77.676.1153.7+1.560%
Last 5 (5)74.078.4152.4-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)76.786.1162.8-9.431%
vs Similar (10)76.979.2156.1-2.340%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)81.771.7153.4+10.071%
This opponent (Sweden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSweden
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
L
50-67
50
67
-17
no box
H25/08
World Cup
Israel
#52
W
95-83
95
83
+12
no box
A28/08
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
87-82
87
82
+5
no box
A11/11
World Cup
Israel
#52
W
71-68
71
68
+3
no box
H14/11
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
66-73
66
73
-7
no box
A24/02
World Cup
Estonia
#55
L
71-72
71
72
-1
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Bulgaria
#13
W
84-70
84
70
+14
77avg 61
H22/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
70-95
70
95
-25
54avg 61
A25/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
W
73-72
73
72
+1
64avg 61
H22/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
61-80
61
80
-19
50avg 61
A25/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-25
20-21
13-8
8-13
24-23
28-15
18-22
25-23
27-13
12-24
20-24
28-21
17-16
20-24
16-8
18-20
19-21
12-19
14-17
21-16
16-17
14-11
14-15
27-29
29-22
21-21
12-12
22-15
24-27
13-23
20-25
13-20
26-18
11-19
18-19
18-16
19-23
12-18
17-19
13-20
149.0Avg total
72.8Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)72.079.2151.2-7.250%
Season at home (2)78.571.0149.5+7.5100%
Season away (2)65.587.5153.0-22.00%
Last 10 (10)72.876.2149.0-3.450%
Last 5 (5)71.877.8149.6-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)67.974.8142.7-6.930%
vs Similar (6)81.382.7164.0-1.333%
vs Weaker (14)83.073.6156.6+9.464%
This opponent (Bulgaria) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +0.0+0.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +0.0+0.0
BulgariaSweden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BulgariaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Romania
#16
W
31-25
31
25
+6
A23/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H26/02
EuroBasket
Norway
#28
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A19/07
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H22/07
EuroBasket
Norway
#28
W
50-34
50
34
+16
H29/07
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
53-38
53
38
+15
A02/08
EuroBasket
Sweden
#26
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A22/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H25/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
27-44
27
44
-17
A22/11
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H25/11
EuroBasket
77.1Avg total
39.6Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.938.977.8-0.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.737.177.8+3.669%-
Last 30 away (14)36.941.077.9-4.136%-
Last 10 (10)39.637.577.1+2.170%-
Last 5 (5)39.840.079.8-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)35.640.876.4-5.238%-
vs Similar (10)40.438.979.3+1.560%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)42.935.678.4+7.371%-
This opponent (Sweden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SwedenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H25/08
World Cup
Israel
#52
W
52-38
52
38
+14
A28/08
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A11/11
World Cup
Israel
#52
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H14/11
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A24/02
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H27/02
World Cup
Bulgaria
#13
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H22/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A25/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H22/11
EuroBasket
Germany
#8
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A25/11
EuroBasket
77.3Avg total
37.3Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.137.775.7+0.450%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.535.873.3+1.753%-
Last 30 away (15)38.639.578.1-0.947%-
Last 10 (10)37.340.077.3-2.740%-
Last 5 (5)37.039.876.8-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)33.441.174.5-7.720%-
vs Similar (6)41.239.380.5+1.850%-
vs Weaker (14)40.134.574.6+5.671%-
This opponent (Bulgaria) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bulgariatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bulgaria: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.717.5
51.9%
50.6%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.09.7
34.6%
32.5%29.1
🏀 Free throws17.112.5
73.1%
71.4%12.5
They take 61.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Swedentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sweden: 71.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.014.2
44.5%
50.6%28.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.0
32.4%
32.5%27.0
🏀 Free throws22.515.5
68.9%
71.4%15.5
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/4 games with a box score before 20 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bulgaria
LLWLWWWLWW
Sweden
LWLWLLWWWL
#13
League position
#26
+2.1
Net rating
-10.4
107.9
Offensive rating
102.0
105.8
Defensive rating
112.4
51.9%
Effective FG%
46.4%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
48.5%
17.7%
Turnover %
15.5%
31.2%
Off. rebound %
28.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.38
34.6%
3-point %
32.4%
62.5%
Assist %
57.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence107.9 · 102.0Defence105.8 · 112.4Shooting51.9% · 46.4%3-point %34.6% · 32.4%Ball care17.7% · 15.5%Off. rebounds31.2% · 28.8%Free throws0.28 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Bulgaria   ■ Sweden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Bulgaria wins
1
Sweden wins
DateGameScore
22/02/24Sweden v Bulgaria84-70
Bulgarialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/24HMontenegro86-90
22/11/24AMontenegro62-85
25/02/24HGermany67-62
22/02/24ASweden70-84
02/08/23AAustria85-71
29/07/23HNorway91-69
22/07/23HAustria83-71
19/07/23ANorway80-86
26/02/23HPortugal90-82
23/02/23ARomania62-61
Swedenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/24AGermany61-80
22/11/24HGermany73-72
25/02/24AMontenegro70-95
22/02/24HBulgaria84-70
27/02/23HEstonia71-72
24/02/23AGermany66-73
14/11/22HIsrael71-68
11/11/22AEstonia87-82
28/08/22AIsrael95-83
25/08/22HGermany50-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bulgaria
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL64%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayWLWLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %64%86%43%
Points / game78.684.173.1
Allowed / game74.471.677.3
Point differential+4.2+12.6-4.1
Avg total153.1155.7150.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%57%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sweden
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game72.078.565.5
Allowed / game79.271.087.5
Point differential-7.2+7.5-22.0
Avg total151.2149.5153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia440100%80.856.8+24.0
2 France440100%76.863.5+13.2
3 Latvia440100%75.870.5+5.2
4 Croatia1411379%84.970.5+14.4
5 Lithuania43175%79.567.0+12.5
6 Italy43175%84.873.5+11.2
7 Montenegro43175%82.875.8+7.0
8 Turkey43175%82.276.0+6.2
9 Greece43175%73.869.0+4.8
10 Israel43175%81.276.5+4.8
11 Slovenia43175%83.079.0+4.0
12 Estonia43175%76.873.5+3.2
13 Portugal107370%82.773.0+9.7
14 Bulgaria149564%78.674.4+4.2
15 North Macedonia106460%74.069.6+4.4
16 Poland106460%79.475.9+3.5
17 Slovakia148657%72.970.4+2.6
18 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
19 Germany42250%74.865.5+9.2
20 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%87.279.8+7.5
21 Belgium42250%72.068.2+3.8
22 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
23 Spain42250%72.070.0+2.0
24 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
25 Denmark189950%74.473.6+0.8
26 Great Britain42250%80.083.2-3.2
27 Sweden42250%72.079.2-7.2
28 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
29 Iceland52340%75.079.4-4.4
30 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
31 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
32 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
33 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland41325%74.283.2-9.0
36 Hungary51420%71.280.8-9.6
37 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
38 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
39 Cyprus161156%63.680.8-17.2
40 Ukraine4040%74.585.0-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Bulgaria25924121181
Sweden22171516777
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