Caserta and Avellino Basket face off in Serie A2 on 8 November 2026, a contest that feels almost evenly matched as both teams have shown contrasting fortunes yet similar potential. Caserta enters with a 2-4 record over six games, scoring 79.8 points per game and conceding 83.5, while Avellino boasts a 6-1 record, averaging 80.7 points and allowing only 73.0, a stark difference in defensive efficiency. At home Caserta has a 2-1 record, 84.7 points for and 80.7 against, and their last five games include a 77-70 win over Mestre and a 96-89 victory over JuVi Cremona, though they also suffered a 75-95 loss to Sassari. Avellino's road form is solid at 2-1, 73.3 points scored and 72.3 conceded, with a recent 85-74 win over Montecatini and a 70-83 defeat to Brindisi. The Pythia model rates Caserta as the slight favourite with a 51% chance of winning versus 49% for Avellino, projecting a 79-79 tie and a total of 158.8 points; the home line of 3.5 gives Caserta a 61% probability of covering, while the over is expected 5% of the time. The game will likely hinge on whether Avellino can sustain its defensive edge against Caserta's recent offensive bursts.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 79.8 | 83.5 | 163.3 | -3.7 | 33% |
| Season at home (3) | 84.7 | 80.7 | 165.3 | +4.0 | 67% |
| Season away (3) | 75.0 | 86.3 | 161.3 | -11.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 81.5 | 159.9 | -3.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.2 | 84.0 | 165.2 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 76.1 | 83.4 | 159.4 | -7.3 | 14% |
| vs Similar (16) | 79.1 | 80.1 | 159.2 | -1.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 80.7 | 73.0 | 153.7 | +7.7 | 86% |
| Season at home (4) | 86.2 | 73.5 | 159.8 | +12.8 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 73.3 | 72.3 | 145.7 | +1.0 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.7 | 74.2 | 151.9 | +3.5 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.0 | 74.0 | 155.0 | +7.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 71.5 | 82.0 | 153.5 | -10.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (18) | 76.9 | 78.4 | 155.4 | -1.5 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 85.9 | 75.4 | 161.3 | +10.5 | 90% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.5 | 40.9 | 78.4 | -3.4 | 20% | 47% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.9 | 40.5 | 79.3 | -1.6 | 27% | 47% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 36.1 | 41.4 | 77.5 | -5.3 | 13% | 47% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.4 | 43.0 | 80.4 | -5.6 | 10% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 42.6 | 80.6 | -4.6 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 36.9 | 40.9 | 77.7 | -4.0 | 14% | 36% |
| vs Similar (16) | 38.1 | 41.0 | 79.1 | -2.9 | 25% | 56% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.7 | 40.7 | 81.4 | +0.0 | 47% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 44.1 | 38.2 | 82.3 | +5.8 | 62% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 36.9 | 43.5 | 80.4 | -6.6 | 29% | 43% |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.2 | 38.7 | 79.9 | +2.5 | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.0 | 37.8 | 83.8 | +8.2 | 80% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 39.5 | 46.0 | 85.5 | -6.5 | 0% | 100% |
| vs Similar (18) | 38.0 | 42.6 | 80.6 | -4.6 | 33% | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 45.8 | 36.2 | 82.0 | +9.6 | 80% | 60% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caserta +12.5 | 86.4% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Won |
| Caserta +10.5 | 82.4% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +13.5pp | Won |
| Caserta +9.5 | 80.0% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +13.3pp | Won |
| Caserta +11.5 | 84.5% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +13.2pp | Won |
| Caserta +6.5 | 71.6% | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.51 | 1.42 | - | - | +11.1pp | Won |
| Caserta +7.5 | 74.6% | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +10.9pp | Won |
| Caserta +6 | 70.7% | 1.56 | 1.58 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +10.9pp | Push |
| Caserta +8.5 | 77.4% | 1.35 | 1.42 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +10.5pp | Won |
| Avellino Basket under 85.5 | 73.9% | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Avellino Basket under 84.5 | 70.7% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Avellino Basket under 86.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +8.8pp | Won |
| Caserta over 73.5 | 70.7% | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +5.6pp | Won |
| Caserta over 72.5 | 73.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +5.0pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 94.5% | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +3.4pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 32.9 | 18.6 | 51.2% | 37.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.7 | 9.2 | 34.5% | 27.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.3 | 13.5 | 71.0% | 13.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 26.4 | 14.4 | 51.2% | 28.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 28.2 | 9.8 | 34.5% | 29.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.2 | 13.4 | 71.0% | 13.4 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 | A | Sassari | 75-95 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Mestre | 77-70 |
| 18/10/26 | H | JuVi Cremona | 96-89 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Pesaro | 77-83 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Fortitudo Bologna | 81-83 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Sebastiani Rieti | 73-81 |
| 07/05/17 | H | Sassari | 77-70 |
| 30/04/17 | A | Avellino | 75-79 |
| 23/04/17 | H | Brindisi | 86-82 |
| 15/04/17 | A | Pesaro | 67-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 | H | Pesaro | 79-70 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Brindisi | 70-83 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Montecatini | 85-74 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Cividale | 77-62 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Forli | 94-81 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Rimini | 73-72 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Vigevano | 87-69 |
| 17/05/26 | A | Fortitudo Bologna | 61-93 |
| 14/05/26 | H | Fortitudo Bologna | 76-67 |
| 12/05/26 | H | Fortitudo Bologna | 75-71 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWWL | 33% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Win % | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| Points / game | 79.8 | 84.7 | 75.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.5 | 80.7 | 86.3 |
| Point differential | -3.7 | +4.0 | -11.3 |
| Avg total | 163.3 | 165.3 | 161.3 |
| Over 159.25 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLW | 86% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | WWL | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 86% | 100% | 67% |
| Points / game | 80.7 | 86.2 | 73.3 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 73.5 | 72.3 |
| Point differential | +7.7 | +12.8 | +1.0 |
| Avg total | 153.7 | 159.8 | 145.7 |
| Over 159.25 | 14% | 25% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 57% | 75% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 81.6 | 68.2 | +13.4 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 80.7 | 73.0 | +7.7 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 74.2 | 69.2 | +5.0 | |
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 79.6 | 74.2 | +5.4 | |
| 5 | Rimini | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 82.6 | 71.0 | +11.6 |
| 6 | Sebastiani Rieti | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 75.0 | 74.9 | +0.1 |
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 77.0 | 73.4 | +3.6 | |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 80.2 | 77.9 | +2.4 | |
| 9 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 82.5 | 78.5 | +4.0 | |
| 10 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 74.9 | 75.1 | -0.2 | |
| 11 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 74.5 | 75.9 | -1.4 | |
| 12 | Cividale | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 70.6 | 73.5 | -2.9 |
| 13 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.1 | 69.3 | +6.9 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 79.8 | 83.5 | -3.7 | |
| 15 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 78.0 | 84.6 | -6.6 |
| 16 | Vigevano | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 77.7 | 85.6 | -7.9 |
| 17 | Cento | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 72.2 | 82.6 | -10.4 |
| 18 | Montecatini | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 68.6 | 82.1 | -13.6 |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 74.5 | 81.9 | -7.4 | |
| 20 | JuVi Cremona | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 73.4 | 80.3 | -6.9 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 22 | 16 | 13 | 76 | |
| Avellino Basket | 22 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 82 |
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