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Caserta vs Forli Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 81-79
Projected total 160.6
Scheduled
Position#15
Record2-6
FormWWLLL
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game82.6
Caserta
Italy
Vs
56%
44%
■ KAS 56%■ FORL 44%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.8/10
Around normal
6.0/10
Above normal
Forli
Italy
Position#9
Record5-4
FormLLWLW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game77.6
ItalySerie A2Round 10· PalaMaggiò
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Caserta hosts Forli on 15 November 2026 in Serie A2, with the Pythia model favouring the home side at 56% to 44% and projecting a close 81-79 finish that would leave the total at 160.6 points, just over the 160.5-point line with a 49% chance of an over; the home team's line is -2.0 and the model sees a 51% probability that Caserta will cover it, while the overtime likelihood is 5%. Caserta's season record stands at 2-6, having averaged 78.1 points scored and 82.6 points allowed, placing them 15th in the league, and their home record is 2-2 with 82.5 points per game and 81.0 allowed; in the last five games they won two and lost three, with recent defeats to Pistoia 70-78, Avellino Basket 76-82, and Sassari 75-95. Forli is 5-4 overall, averaging 82.3 scored and 77.6 allowed, positioned 9th, and on the road they are 1-3, averaging 78.5 points and conceding 80.2; their last five games also contain two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 81-70 victory over Rimini and an 86-71 win against Ruvo Di Puglia. The final game will hinge on whether Caserta can rebound from recent setbacks to secure a narrow edge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Caserta win
55.9%fair 1.79
Best odds1.93
Implied49.3%
Edge+6.6pp
Forli win
44.1%fair 2.27
Best odds1.95
Implied50.7%
Edge-6.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CasertaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCaserta
Date
Competition
Avellino
#3
L
75-79
75
79
-4
no box
A30/04
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
77-70
77
70
+7
no box
H07/05
Lega A
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
L
73-81
73
81
-8
69avg 72
A27/09
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
81-83
81
83
-2
no box
H04/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#10
L
77-83
77
83
-6
66avg 72
A11/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
96-89
96
89
+7
90avg 72
H18/10
Serie A2
Mestre
#13
W
77-70
77
70
+7
68avg 72
H25/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
75-95
75
95
-20
68avg 72
A01/11
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
76-82
76
82
-6
no box
H08/11
Serie A2
Pistoia
#8
L
70-78
70
78
-8
no box
A11/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-8
15-26
17-23
24-22
18-19
19-23
21-11
19-17
18-27
19-17
21-19
15-18
24-26
14-16
21-26
22-15
24-23
15-23
21-16
17-21
21-27
16-25
35-20
24-17
26-17
15-18
16-22
20-13
19-20
16-18
19-29
21-28
25-22
22-22
16-22
13-16
22-21
14-15
14-20
20-22
158.7Avg total
77.7Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)78.182.6160.8-4.525%
Season at home (4)82.581.0163.5+1.550%
Season away (4)73.884.2158.0-10.50%
Last 10 (10)77.781.0158.7-3.330%
Last 5 (5)78.882.8161.6-4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)75.782.9158.6-7.212%
vs Similar (14)78.079.6157.6-1.643%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Forli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ForliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormForli
Date
Competition
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
65-96
65
96
-31
55avg 70
H26/04
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
85-68
85
68
+17
78avg 70
A26/09
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
80-73
80
73
+7
70avg 70
H03/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
81-94
81
94
-13
66avg 70
A11/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
93-71
93
71
+22
93avg 70
H18/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
74-79
74
79
-5
66avg 70
A21/10
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
74avg 70
H25/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
86-71
86
71
+15
no box
H01/11
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
74-80
74
80
-6
no box
A07/11
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
W
81-70
81
70
+11
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
20-30
9-22
21-23
27-15
21-8
16-23
21-22
31-18
16-19
18-19
15-17
19-25
21-24
23-24
18-21
25-11
30-33
13-15
25-12
20-20
20-23
21-17
13-19
19-31
22-26
23-23
23-12
28-24
15-14
19-14
24-19
20-23
9-15
23-29
22-13
21-24
15-21
21-12
24-13
160.0Avg total
80.6Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)82.377.6159.9+4.856%
Season at home (5)85.475.4160.8+10.080%
Season away (4)78.580.2158.8-1.825%
Last 10 (10)80.679.4160.0+1.250%
Last 5 (5)80.478.4158.8+2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)74.984.7159.6-9.825%
vs Similar (10)82.980.3163.2+2.650%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)81.272.8154.0+8.575%
This opponent (Caserta) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156.5
Over 156.5
59.1%
@ 1.55-0.3pp
Under 156.5
40.9%
@ 2.27+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 161.75 · main line
Over 161.75
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under 161.75
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
35.5%
@ 2.47-1.5pp
Under 166.5
64.5%
@ 1.45+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Caserta total 76.5
Over 76.5
67.3%
@ 1.44+3.4pp
Under 76.5
32.7%
@ 2.55-3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.37
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.42
Caserta total 80.5 · main line
Over 80.5
52.3%
@ 1.85+2.1pp
Under 80.5
47.7%
@ 1.86-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.82
Caserta total 84.5
Over 84.5
37.1%
@ 2.57+0.6pp
Under 84.5
62.9%
@ 1.42-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.34
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Forli total 75.5
Over 75.5
64.7%
@ 1.40-0.9pp
Under 75.5
35.3%
@ 2.67+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.67
Forli total 79.5 · main line
Over 79.5
49.5%
@ 1.85-3.6pp
Under 79.5
50.5%
@ 2.00+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.58
Under
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Forli total 83.5
Over 83.5
34.6%
@ 2.37-5.4pp
Under 83.5
65.4%
@ 1.50+5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.11
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Caserta -2
KAS -2
50.9%
@ 2.12+6.2pp
FORL +2
49.1%
@ 1.75-6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
KAS
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathon Be
2.07
SBO
1.91
FORL
SBO
1.75
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Be
1.61
Spread Caserta +1 · main line
KAS +1
57.5%
@ 1.89+7.0pp
FORL -1
42.5%
@ 1.93-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
KAS
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.80
FORL
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Caserta +4
KAS +4
68.3%
FORL -4
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
KAS
No market prices yet.
FORL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -0.7-0.7Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +3.5+3.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -0.7-0.7Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +3.5+3.5
CasertaForli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CasertaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Avellino
#3
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A30/04
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H07/05
Lega A
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A27/09
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H04/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#10
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A11/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
L
37-52
37
52
-15
H18/10
Serie A2
Mestre
#13
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H25/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A01/11
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
W
47-44
47
44
+3
H08/11
Serie A2
Pistoia
#8
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A11/11
Serie A2
79.4Avg total
38.1Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80.75
Last 30 (30)37.340.878.2-3.520%43%
Last 30 at home (15)38.940.979.8-2.127%47%
Last 30 away (15)35.840.776.5-4.913%40%
Last 10 (10)38.141.379.4-3.220%40%
Last 5 (5)39.241.080.2-1.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)37.440.878.2-3.319%38%
vs Similar (14)37.240.978.1-3.721%50%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Forli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ForliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
35-51
35
51
-16
H26/04
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
48-23
48
23
+25
A26/09
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H03/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
55-44
55
44
+11
H18/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A21/10
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
41-57
41
57
-16
H25/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H01/11
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A07/11
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H11/11
Serie A2
83.9Avg total
41.4Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80.75
Last 30 (30)40.442.883.2-2.427%67%
Last 30 at home (15)41.943.285.1-1.333%73%
Last 30 away (15)38.942.581.4-3.520%60%
Last 10 (10)41.442.583.9-1.140%80%
Last 5 (5)37.844.282.0-6.420%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.344.082.3-5.712%56%
vs Similar (10)42.144.086.1-1.930%80%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)44.535.279.8+9.275%75%
This opponent (Caserta) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
KAS win
no forecast
@ 1.93
FORL win
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Caserta -0.5 · main line
KAS -0.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
FORL +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 80.75 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Caserta 1st half total 40.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Forli 1st half total 40.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half: KAS + total 80.5
KAS & over
no forecast
@ 3.45
KAS & under
no forecast
@ 3.65
1st half: Draw + total 80.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 26.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half: FORL + total 80.5
FORL & over
no forecast
@ 3.75
FORL & under
no forecast
@ 4.00
1st half Over/Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Spread Caserta -1.5
KAS -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
FORL +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Over/Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Caserta +1
KAS +1
no forecast
@ 1.78
FORL -1
no forecast
@ 2.06
1st half Spread Caserta -2.5
KAS -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
FORL +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Caserta +2
KAS +2
no forecast
@ 1.63
FORL -2
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Spread Caserta -3.5
KAS -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
FORL +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
KAS
no forecast
@ 1.93
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
FORL
no forecast
@ 2.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
KAS win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
FORL win + total 160.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: KAS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: FORL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (KAS:FORL): KAS wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Caserta +6.575.6%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+6.7pp
Caserta +7.578.4%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+6.6pp
Caserta +5.572.6%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+6.6pp
Forli +9.575.2%1.26
Betano
1.26		----+2.3pp
Forli +8.572.3%1.25
Betano
1.25		-----1.1pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 1 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Casertatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Caserta: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.918.6
56.5%
51.2%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.79.2
33.2%
34.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws19.313.5
69.9%
71.0%13.5
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Forlitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Forli: 75.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.118.7
53.3%
51.2%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.77.6
35.0%
34.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws22.914.9
65.1%
71.0%14.9
They take 56.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Caserta
LLLWWLLLWL
Forli
WLWLLWLWWL
#15
League position
#9
-4.2
Net rating
-1.3
106.4
Offensive rating
98.1
110.6
Defensive rating
99.4
53.5%
Effective FG%
53.0%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
13.1%
Turnover %
13.6%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.40
33.2%
3-point %
35.0%
47.1%
Assist %
51.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.4 · 98.1Defence110.6 · 99.4Shooting53.5% · 53.0%3-point %33.2% · 35.0%Ball care13.1% · 13.6%Free throws0.32 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Caserta   ■ Forli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Caserta wins
0
Forli wins
No previous meetings.
Casertalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26APistoia70-78
08/11/26HAvellino Basket76-82
01/11/26ASassari75-95
25/10/26HMestre77-70
18/10/26HJuVi Cremona96-89
11/10/26APesaro77-83
04/10/26HFortitudo Bologna81-83
27/09/26ASebastiani Rieti73-81
07/05/17HSassari77-70
30/04/17AAvellino75-79
Forlilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HRimini81-70
07/11/26ABrindisi74-80
01/11/26HRuvo Di Puglia86-71
25/10/26HLibertas Livorno87-92
21/10/26AVigevano74-79
18/10/26HSebastiani Rieti93-71
11/10/26AAvellino Basket81-94
03/10/26HCento80-73
26/09/26ACividale85-68
26/04/26HFortitudo Bologna65-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Caserta
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL25%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game78.182.573.8
Allowed / game82.681.084.2
Point differential-4.5+1.5-10.5
Avg total160.8163.5158.0
Over 161.7538%50%25%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Forli
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW56%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %56%80%25%
Points / game82.385.478.5
Allowed / game77.675.480.2
Point differential+4.8+10.0-1.8
Avg total159.9160.8158.8
Over 161.7533%40%25%
Win by 10+44%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno98189%81.269.7+11.6
2 Avellino Basket98189%82.274.7+7.6
3 Fortitudo Bologna97278%79.474.3+5.1
4 Sebastiani Rieti97278%74.872.1+2.7
5 Rimini96367%80.471.8+8.7
6 Brindisi96367%77.473.9+3.6
7 Basket Torino85362%72.872.2+0.5
8 Pistoia106460%77.669.1+8.5
9 Forli95456%82.377.6+4.8
10 Pesaro95456%81.079.9+1.1
11 Sassari95456%77.276.4+0.8
12 Cividale95456%71.874.1-2.3
13 Mestre94544%75.076.4-1.4
14 Vigevano93633%76.381.8-5.4
15 Caserta82625%78.182.6-4.5
16 JuVi Cremona92722%75.377.9-2.6
17 Ruvo Di Puglia92722%74.481.7-7.2
18 Cento92722%72.882.2-9.4
19 Montecatini91811%68.182.3-14.2
20 Urania Milano101910%74.682.7-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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