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China vs Japan Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 20 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 11:30
Final 100-58
19-12 31-21 19-12 31-13
Position#2
Record3-1
FormLLLWW
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game57.5
China 🏆
vs
Position#6
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game70.5
EuropeAsia Cup· Shenzhen Bay Sports Center
Other2023
Meetings · China v Japan
03 Jul 2026
CHIN73
JAPA92
20 Feb 2025
CHIN100
JAPA58
27 Nov 2021
CHIN79
JAPA63
19 Jun 2021
CHIN90
JAPA84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

China winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Japan winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ChinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormChina
Date
Competition
South Korea
#5
W
84-70
84
70
+14
no box
H03/10
Asian Games
Philippines
#1
L
76-77
76
77
-1
no box
A04/10
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
W
101-73
101
73
+28
no box
A06/10
Asian Games
Mongolia
#15
W
80-49
80
49
+31
82avg 78
H22/02
Asia Cup
Japan
#6
L
73-76
73
76
-3
69avg 78
A25/02
Asia Cup
Sacramento Kings
#4
L
50-101
50
101
-51
no box
A07/07
California Classic
Charlotte Hornets
#1
L
62-93
62
93
-31
66avg 78
A08/07
California Classic
San Antonio Spurs
#5
L
67-89
67
89
-22
76avg 78
H10/07
California Classic
Guam
#14
W
101-53
101
53
+48
105avg 78
H21/11
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
90-52
90
52
+38
96avg 78
A24/11
Asia Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-12
30-17
16-15
18-26
19-17
29-13
14-20
14-27
21-29
25-20
34-10
21-14
20-12
19-17
20-7
21-13
20-19
18-19
13-17
22-21
18-31
11-21
7-25
14-24
9-26
18-17
19-21
16-29
20-29
24-18
7-17
16-25
21-17
24-10
27-15
29-11
18-14
25-15
28-14
19-9
151.7Avg total
78.4Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)86.057.5143.5+28.575%
Season at home (2)90.551.0141.5+39.5100%
Season away (2)81.564.0145.5+17.550%
Last 10 (10)78.473.3151.7+5.150%
Last 5 (5)74.077.6151.6-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)63.490.5153.9-27.112%
vs Similar (3)82.393.0175.3-10.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)85.664.8150.4+20.889%
This opponent (Japan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
JapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJapan
Date
Competition
Qatar
#11
W
95-63
95
63
+32
no box
H26/09
Asian Games
Indonesia
#15
W
70-57
70
57
+13
no box
A28/09
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
W
83-77
83
77
+6
no box
H30/09
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
L
66-85
66
85
-19
no box
H03/10
Asian Games
Saudi Arabia
#7
L
74-79
74
79
-5
no box
A04/10
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
L
55-74
55
74
-19
no box
A06/10
Asian Games
Guam
#14
W
77-56
77
56
+21
74avg 76
H22/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
W
76-73
76
73
+3
66avg 76
H25/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
93-75
93
75
+18
98avg 76
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
82avg 76
A24/11
Asia Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-13
23-21
18-7
21-22
21-15
17-19
14-16
18-7
23-17
20-20
18-16
22-24
12-28
13-15
18-23
23-19
23-19
13-27
19-19
19-14
18-19
7-22
18-18
12-15
17-12
18-24
20-8
22-12
19-20
19-18
17-13
21-22
22-22
25-14
20-15
26-24
20-15
28-16
20-22
15-25
148.9Avg total
77.2Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)82.270.5152.8+11.8100%
Season at home (3)82.068.0150.0+14.0100%
Season away (1)83.078.0161.0+5.0100%
Last 10 (10)77.271.7148.9+5.570%
Last 5 (5)76.871.2148.0+5.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)68.984.6153.4-15.729%
vs Similar (6)80.886.0166.8-5.233%
vs Weaker (17)87.265.9153.1+21.394%
This opponent (China) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +5.6+5.6Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +1.5+1.5
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +5.6+5.6Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +1.5+1.5
ChinaJapan
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ChinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Korea
#5
W
50-29
50
29
+21
H03/10
Asian Games
Philippines
#1
W
48-30
48
30
+18
A04/10
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
L
46-49
46
49
-3
A06/10
Asian Games
Mongolia
#15
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H22/02
Asia Cup
Japan
#6
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A25/02
Asia Cup
Sacramento Kings
#4
L
29-52
29
52
-23
A07/07
California Classic
Charlotte Hornets
#1
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A08/07
California Classic
San Antonio Spurs
#5
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H10/07
California Classic
Guam
#14
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H21/11
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A24/11
Asia Cup
78.2Avg total
40.9Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.836.777.5+4.257%-
Last 30 at home (12)44.432.777.1+11.867%-
Last 30 away (18)38.439.377.8-0.950%-
Last 10 (10)40.937.378.2+3.650%-
Last 5 (5)37.639.677.2-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.246.078.2-13.80%-
vs Similar (3)40.745.386.0-4.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.531.475.8+13.184%-
This opponent (Japan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
JapanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Qatar
#11
W
56-34
56
34
+22
H26/09
Asian Games
Indonesia
#15
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A28/09
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H30/09
Asian Games
Chinese Taipei
#6
L
25-43
25
43
-18
H03/10
Asian Games
Saudi Arabia
#7
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A04/10
Asian Games
South Korea
#5
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A06/10
Asian Games
Guam
#14
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H22/02
Asia Cup
China
#2
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H25/02
Asia Cup
Mongolia
#15
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H21/11
Asia Cup
Guam
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A24/11
Asia Cup
76.7Avg total
39.1Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.038.978.8+1.143%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.637.277.8+3.450%-
Last 30 away (14)39.240.880.0-1.636%-
Last 10 (10)39.137.676.7+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)38.636.475.0+2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.745.077.7-12.314%-
vs Similar (6)33.545.579.0-12.00%-
vs Weaker (17)45.234.079.2+11.271%-
This opponent (China) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Chinatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

China: 74.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.420.0
50.8%
49.3%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.56.6
29.4%
32.7%19.9
🏀 Free throws19.014.1
74.3%
70.1%14.1
They take 61.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Japantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀32%
🏀🏀🏀50%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers26.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers25.813.2
51.5%
49.3%26.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.513.5
33.3%
32.7%40.5
🏀 Free throws20.014.8
73.8%
70.1%14.8
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 61% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/4 games with a box score before 20 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
China
WWLLLLWWLW
Japan
WWWWLLLWWW
#2
League position
#6
+1.8
Net rating
+16.3
98.6
Offensive rating
109.1
96.8
Defensive rating
92.7
48.4%
Effective FG%
50.6%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
42.3%
21.9%
Turnover %
15.2%
33.5%
Off. rebound %
27.4%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.30
29.4%
3-point %
33.3%
63.8%
Assist %
81.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence98.6 · 109.1Defence96.8 · 92.7Shooting48.4% · 50.6%3-point %29.4% · 33.3%Ball care21.9% · 15.2%Off. rebounds33.5% · 27.4%Free throws0.31 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ China   ■ Japan
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
China wins
3
Japan wins
DateGameScore
25/02/24Japan v China76-73
28/11/21Japan v China73-106
27/11/21China v Japan79-63
19/06/21China v Japan90-84
16/06/21Japan v China57-66
27/09/14Japan v China79-72
14/07/14Japan v China66-79
20/09/12Japan v China60-50
Chinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/24AMongolia90-52
21/11/24HGuam101-53
10/07/24HSan Antonio Spurs67-89
08/07/24ACharlotte Hornets62-93
07/07/24ASacramento Kings50-101
25/02/24AJapan73-76
22/02/24HMongolia80-49
06/10/23AChinese Taipei101-73
04/10/23APhilippines76-77
03/10/23HSouth Korea84-70
Japanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/24AGuam83-78
21/11/24HMongolia93-75
25/02/24HChina76-73
22/02/24HGuam77-56
06/10/23ASouth Korea55-74
04/10/23ASaudi Arabia74-79
03/10/23HChinese Taipei66-85
30/09/23HSouth Korea83-77
28/09/23AIndonesia70-57
26/09/23HQatar95-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

China
Asia Cup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game86.090.581.5
Allowed / game57.551.064.0
Point differential+28.5+39.5+17.5
Avg total143.5141.5145.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Japan
Asia Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game82.282.083.0
Allowed / game70.568.078.0
Point differential+11.8+14.0+5.0
Avg total152.8150.0161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia550100%99.860.6+39.2
2 Lebanon440100%92.270.5+21.8
3 Jordan440100%78.063.8+14.2
4 Japan440100%82.270.5+11.8
5 Philippines54180%94.070.2+23.8
6 New Zealand54180%87.865.2+22.6
7 China43175%86.057.5+28.5
8 Iran43175%64.851.2+13.5
9 Saudi Arabia43175%66.865.2+1.5
10 Thailand118373%86.475.5+10.8
11 Guam106460%70.573.5-3.0
12 Iraq95456%74.072.8+1.2
13 Qatar95456%67.066.3+0.7
14 South Korea42250%82.080.8+1.2
15 Mongolia126650%76.878.3-1.6
16 Kazakhstan42250%51.256.5-5.2
17 Bahrain42250%71.579.8-8.2
18 United Arab Emirates94544%70.271.4-1.2
19 Malaysia73443%74.075.7-1.7
20 Kuwait52340%73.270.2+3.0
21 Chinese Taipei52340%72.483.0-10.6
22 Palestine93633%69.971.9-2.0
23 Vietnam41325%68.070.8-2.8
24 Syria41325%72.878.8-6.0
25 India41325%61.071.8-10.8
26 Hong Kong102820%63.981.2-17.3
27 Oman5050%57.674.8-17.2
28 Singapore5050%57.476.4-19.0
29 Indonesia5050%62.897.2-34.4
30 Tahiti4040%52.889.8-37.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
China19311931100
Japan1221121358
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