Colorado hosts San Diego State on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Pythia ranking the Buffaloes as the clear favourite because their single-game season record of 1-0, 94.0 points per game and 59.0 allowed per game places them 61st in the league and gives them a 78% chance of winning. The Broncos, also undefeated at 1-0, average 102.0 points and allow 78.0, sit 110th and have a 22% chance of victory. Colorado's lone home outing saw a 94-59 win over Abilene Christian, while their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 94-59 triumph and two defeats to Oklahoma State and Arizona. San Diego State's last five feature four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 102-78 win over CS Fullerton and a 64-62 victory over New Mexico, though they suffered a 62-73 loss to Utah State. Pythia projects an 81-72 score, 152.6 total points, a -2.0 spread with a 75% probability of Colorado covering, and a 45% chance of the over on the 154.5 line, with a 4% overtime probability. Colorado's single-game dominance suggests they will likely maintain control in this opening contest.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colorado winLost
77.8%fair 1.28
Best odds2.41
Implied41.0%
Edge+36.9pp
San Diego State winWon
22.2%fair 4.51
Best odds1.64
Implied59.0%
Edge-36.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Colorado) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146Actual: Under 146
Over 146
65.5%
@ 1.52+4.3pp
Under 146
34.5%
@ 2.40-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 151 · main lineActual: Under 151
Over 151
53.4%
@ 1.95+2.9pp
Under 151
46.6%
@ 1.93-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.76
Over/Under 156Actual: Under 156
Over 156
41.0%
@ 2.65-5.7pp
Under 156
59.0%
@ 1.78+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Be
1.76
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Colorado total 71.5Actual: Colorado under 71.5
Over 71.5
no forecast
@ 1.32
Under 71.5
no forecast
@ 3.90
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.90
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.87
Colorado total 76 · main lineActual: Colorado under 76
Over 76
68.5%
@ 1.85+18.5pp
Under 76
31.5%
@ 1.85-18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Colorado total 80Actual: Colorado under 80
Over 80
52.7%
Under 80
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Diego State total 74.5Actual: San Diego State over 74.5
Over 74.5
39.7%
@ 1.96-8.3pp
Under 74.5
60.3%
@ 1.85+8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
San Diego State total 78.5 · main lineActual: San Diego State under 78.5
Over 78.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Under 78.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39
San Diego State total 82.5Actual: San Diego State under 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 3.75
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.29
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Colorado -6Actual: San Diego State +6
COLO -6
60.4%
@ 1.58+2.0pp
SAN +6
39.6%
@ 2.22-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Bet365
1.58
SAN
Bet365
2.22
Spread Colorado -3 · main lineActual: San Diego State +3
COLO -3
71.1%
@ 1.97+22.3pp
SAN +3
28.9%
@ 1.88-22.3pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
SAN
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Spread Colorado 0Actual: San Diego State 0
COLO 0
77.8%
SAN 0
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
COLO
No market prices yet.
SAN
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ColoradoSan Diego State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Colorado) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Colorado win
COLO win
no forecast
@ 2.15
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.72
2nd half Spread Colorado -1.5 · main lineActual: Colorado -1.5
COLO -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
SAN +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: San Diego State (regulation)
COLO
no forecast
@ 2.20
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.78
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Colorado +23.5
99.4%
13.00
Bet365
13.00
-
-
-
-
+92.2pp
Won
Colorado +21.5
99.1%
12.00
Bet365
12.00
-
-
-
-
+91.3pp
Won
Colorado +18.5
98.5%
9.00
Bet365
9.00
-
-
-
-
+88.2pp
Won
Colorado +16.5
97.9%
8.75
Bet365
8.75
-
-
-
-
+87.3pp
Won
Colorado +13.5
96.6%
6.75
Bet365
6.75
-
-
-
-
+82.7pp
Won
Colorado +11.5
95.3%
6.25
Bet365
6.25
-
-
-
-
+80.4pp
Won
San Diego State +23.5
90.1%
9.50
Bet365
9.50
-
-
-
-
+80.3pp
Won
San Diego State +21.5
86.9%
9.00
Bet365
9.00
-
-
-
-
+76.5pp
Won
Colorado +8.5
92.5%
4.20
Bet365
4.20
-
-
-
-
+70.3pp
Lost
San Diego State +18.5
80.8%
7.00
Bet365
7.00
-
-
-
-
+67.4pp
Won
Colorado +6.5
89.9%
3.60
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.45
-
-
-
+64.2pp
Lost
San Diego State +16.5
75.7%
6.50
Bet365
6.50
-
-
-
-
+61.3pp
Won
Colorado +5.5
88.3%
3.25
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
-
-
-
+59.7pp
Lost
Colorado +5
88.1%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+58.4pp
Lost
Colorado +4
86.2%
3.20
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
-
+57.0pp
Lost
Colorado +4.5
86.5%
3.12
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.00
-
-
-
+56.7pp
Lost
Colorado +3.5
84.4%
2.86
Bet365
2.95
Betano
2.77
-
-
-
+52.0pp
Lost
Colorado +3
84.1%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+51.5pp
Lost
Colorado +2.5
82.5%
2.65
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
+47.5pp
Lost
Colorado +2
82.0%
2.67
Bet365
2.67
-
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
Colorado +1.5
79.8%
2.46
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+41.9pp
Lost
Colorado +1
79.4%
2.37
Bet365
2.41
Pinnacle
2.32
-
-
-
+38.1pp
Lost
Colorado (regulation)
75.5%
2.33
Marathon Bet
2.40
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.21
-
-
+37.7pp
Lost
Colorado win
77.8%
2.32
Bet365
2.41
BetVictor
2.38
WilliamHill
2.38
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.32
+36.9pp
Lost
Colorado -1
77.3%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.20
Marathon Bet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
-
+36.4pp
Lost
Colorado -1.5
75.6%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.07
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
+33.6pp
Lost
Colorado -2
74.7%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.05
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
+30.6pp
Lost
Colorado -2.5
72.0%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
2.00
1xBet
1.83
+25.6pp
Lost
Colorado over 74
75.4%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Colorado -3
71.1%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.87
-
+22.3pp
Lost
San Diego State under 77.5
70.9%
1.62
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
+15.2pp
Won
Colorado over 74.5
73.0%
1.55
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Colorado over 73.5
76.2%
1.54
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.32
-
-
+13.8pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.1pp
-
Under 162.5
73.0%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Over 144
70.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Under 161.5
71.0%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 179.5
94.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 161
70.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Colorado under 97.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 162
72.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 143.5
70.7%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Over 143
72.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Push
Over 142.5
72.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 164.5
76.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 174.5
90.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Colorado under 95.5
93.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 169.5
84.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
San Diego State over 56.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Colorado under 93.5
90.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
San Diego State over 57.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 129.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Colorado under 91.5
86.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
San Diego State over 59.5
88.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
San Diego State over 58.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Colorado under 89.5
81.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Over 134.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
San Diego State over 61.5
84.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
San Diego State over 60.5
86.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
San Diego State over 63.5
79.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
San Diego State over 64.5
76.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Over 139.5
78.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Colorado under 87.5
75.3%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
San Diego State over 65.5
73.3%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
San Diego State over 62.5
82.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Colorado under 86.5
72.1%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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