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Dayton vs Siena Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 78-67
Projected total 145.5
Final 89-99
45-46 44-53
Position#264
Record1-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game82.5
Allowed / game69.5
Dayton
USA
Vs
83%
17%
■ DAYT 83%■ SIE 17%
Pythia win probability
Siena 🏆
USA
Position#169
Record1-1
FormWWLLW
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game74.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Dayton faces Siena on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Dayton the clear favourite, rating them 83% to win largely because of their 1-1 record, 82.5 points per game and 69.5 allowed per game, while Siena sits 1-1 with 78.5 points per game and 74.0 allowed per game; Dayton's home record is 1-1 with the same averages and they have won 3 of their last 5 games, including a 89-58 win over NJIT and a 76-81 loss to Northern Illinois, whereas Siena's road record is 0-1, 75.0 points per game and 80.0 allowed per game, and they have lost to Bryant and Duke away but beat Princeton at home. The two teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a 78-67 Dayton victory. Pythia projects a 78-67 score, giving Dayton a 13.5-point line with a 40% chance to cover and a 151.5 total with a 35% over probability, while the overtime likelihood is 3%. The game ends with Dayton's projected 78 points and Siena's 67, a 145.5 total.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dayton winLost
82.9%fair 1.21
Best odds1.10
Implied86.6%
Edge-3.7pp
Siena winWon
17.1%fair 5.83
Best odds7.50
Implied13.4%
Edge+3.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DaytonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duquesne
#166
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H21/02
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H25/02
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A28/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
65-60
65
60
+5
A04/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
62-68
62
68
-6
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H13/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
70-69
70
69
+1
A14/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
62-70
62
70
-8
A15/03
NCAA
NJIT
#339
W
89-58
89
58
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#201
L
76-81 OT
76
81
-5
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-39
36-27
44-28
33-34
34-31
34-35
40-32
25-28
36-37
26-31
30-27
38-36
33-36
37-33
25-40
37-30
47-23
42-35
29-40
38-27
137.8Avg total
71.5Scored
66.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)82.569.5152.0+13.050%
Season at home (2)82.569.5152.0+13.050%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.566.3137.8+5.270%
Last 5 (5)73.068.2141.2+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)69.779.4149.1-9.729%
vs Similar ◀ (18)75.169.6144.7+5.472%
vs Weaker (5)77.061.0138.0+16.080%
This opponent (Siena) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SienaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
72-79 OT
72
79
-7
A21/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H22/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
58-72
58
72
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H01/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
W
63-58
63
58
+5
H08/03
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H09/03
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
65-71
65
71
-6
A19/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#338
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A03/11
NCAA
Princeton
#122
W
82-68
82
68
+14
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-32
29-34
37-23
35-40
23-37
35-35
33-35
43-26
35-21
28-37
40-30
36-31
33-30
31-24
43-32
22-39
41-37
34-43
39-29
43-39
137.0Avg total
70.3Scored
66.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)78.574.0152.5+4.550%
Season at home (1)82.068.0150.0+14.0100%
Season away (1)75.080.0155.0-5.00%
Last 10 (10)70.366.7137.0+3.660%
Last 5 (5)72.466.8139.2+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)65.071.0136.0-6.00%
vs Similar ◀ (17)68.868.2137.1+0.653%
vs Weaker (12)74.263.9138.1+10.383%
This opponent (Dayton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
47.1%
@ 1.39-19.0pp
Under 146.5
52.9%
@ 2.72+19.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.72
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
35.3%
@ 1.83-16.2pp
Under 151.5
64.7%
@ 2.02+16.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.70
Marathon Be
1.68
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
24.8%
@ 2.18-17.5pp
Under 156.5
75.2%
@ 1.60+17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.60

📊 3. Team Totals

Dayton total 79Actual: Dayton over 79
Over 79
46.5%
Under 79
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dayton total 83 · main lineActual: Dayton over 83
Over 83
30.6%
@ 1.87-19.1pp
Under 83
69.4%
@ 1.85+19.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Dayton total 87Actual: Dayton over 87
Over 87
17.8%
Under 87
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siena total 65.5Actual: Siena over 65.5
Over 65.5
56.7%
@ 1.36-9.9pp
Under 65.5
43.3%
@ 2.72+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.72
Siena total 69.5 · main lineActual: Siena over 69.5
Over 69.5
41.1%
@ 1.85-8.9pp
Under 69.5
58.9%
@ 1.91+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Siena total 73.5Actual: Siena over 73.5
Over 73.5
27.0%
@ 2.50-9.2pp
Under 73.5
73.0%
@ 1.42+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Dayton -16.5Actual: Siena +16.5
DAYT -16.5
30.4%
@ 2.37-8.4pp
SIE +16.5
69.6%
@ 1.50+8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Betano
2.37
SIE
Betano
1.50
Spread Dayton -13.5 · main lineActual: Siena +13.5
DAYT -13.5
40.2%
@ 1.93-8.8pp
SIE +13.5
59.8%
@ 1.85+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
SIE
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
Spread Dayton -10.5Actual: Siena +10.5
DAYT -10.5
51.0%
@ 1.57-7.9pp
SIE +10.5
49.0%
@ 2.25+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Betano
1.57
SIE
Betano
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +2.7+2.71st half: +5.5+5.52nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: -1.2-1.2
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +2.7+2.71st half: +5.5+5.52nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: -1.2-1.2
DaytonSiena
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DaytonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duquesne
#166
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H21/02
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H25/02
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A04/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H13/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A14/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A15/03
NCAA
NJIT
#339
W
47-23
47
23
+24
H03/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#201
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H08/11
NCAA
69.3Avg total
36.0Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73
Last 30 (30)35.633.469.0+2.363%20%
Last 30 at home (18)37.630.768.2+6.983%11%
Last 30 away (12)32.837.470.2-4.733%33%
Last 10 (10)36.033.369.3+2.760%10%
Last 5 (5)32.833.266.0-0.440%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.439.171.6-6.714%29%
vs Similar ◀ (18)36.631.868.3+4.883%22%
vs Weaker (5)36.831.067.8+5.860%0%
This opponent (Siena) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SienaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A21/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H22/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
23-37
23
37
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
W
35-21
35
21
+14
H08/03
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H09/03
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
43-32
43
32
+11
A19/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#338
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A03/11
NCAA
Princeton
#122
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H08/11
NCAA
66.7Avg total
36.1Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73
Last 30 (30)34.832.267.0+2.563%20%
Last 30 at home (13)36.131.667.7+4.554%15%
Last 30 away (17)33.832.766.5+1.171%24%
Last 10 (10)36.130.666.7+5.580%20%
Last 5 (5)39.231.670.8+7.6100%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.032.075.0+11.0100%100%
vs Similar ◀ (17)31.634.265.8-2.647%12%
vs Weaker (12)38.629.568.1+9.183%25%
This opponent (Dayton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Siena win
DAYT win
no forecast
@ 1.18
SIE win
no forecast
@ 4.90
1st half Spread Dayton -7.5 · main lineActual: Siena +7.5
DAYT -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
SIE +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 73 · main lineActual: Over 73
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Dayton 1st half total 40 · main lineActual: Dayton over 40
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Siena 1st half total 33 · main lineActual: Siena over 33
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Dayton -8.5Actual: Siena +8.5
DAYT -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
SIE +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Dayton -6.5Actual: Siena +6.5
DAYT -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
SIE +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Dayton -9.5Actual: Siena +9.5
DAYT -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
SIE +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Dayton -5.5Actual: Siena +5.5
DAYT -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
SIE +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Dayton -10.5Actual: Siena +10.5
DAYT -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
SIE +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Dayton -4.5Actual: Siena +4.5
DAYT -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
SIE +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Siena (regulation)
DAYT
no forecast
@ 1.21
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
SIE
no forecast
@ 4.85

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
DAYT win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
SIE win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DAYT leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Dayton under 83.570.5%1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82		--+19.9ppLost
Under 15470.6%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82		----+19.6ppLost
Dayton under 85.577.0%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+18.6ppLost
Dayton under 84.573.8%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+18.5ppLost
Under 154.571.2%1.76
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
WilliamHill
1.73		--+18.0ppLost
Dayton under 86.579.9%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+17.6ppLost
Under 155.573.2%1.67
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.65		---+17.6ppLost
Under 156.575.2%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+17.5ppLost
Dayton under 87.582.6%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+16.9ppLost
Under 157.577.1%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+16.3ppLost
Dayton under 88.585.1%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+16.1ppLost
Under 158.578.8%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+15.6ppLost
Under 159.580.5%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+14.9ppLost
Under 160.582.1%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+14.6ppLost
Siena under 73.573.0%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+9.2ppLost
Siena under 74.576.0%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+9.0ppLost
Siena +17.572.6%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+8.5ppWon
Siena +18.575.5%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+8.3ppWon
Siena +19.578.1%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+8.3ppWon
Siena +20.580.5%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+7.7ppWon
Overtime: no96.7%1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01		---+3.6ppWon
Dayton (regulation)80.8%1.10
Betano
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.10		----0.5ppLost
Dayton win82.9%1.08
Marathon Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
WilliamHill
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
1xBet
1.07		-3.7ppLost
Under 15674.7%1.64
Marathon Bet
1.64		-----Lost
Under 15572.7%1.73
Marathon Bet
1.73		-----Lost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Dayton wins
0
Siena wins
No previous meetings.
Daytonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HNorthern Illinois76-81 OT
03/11/26HNJIT89-58
15/03/26AVCU Rams62-70
14/03/26ASt. Louis Billikens70-69
13/03/26HSt. Bonaventure68-63
07/03/26HVCU Rams62-68
04/03/26ARichmond Spiders65-60
28/02/26AGeorge Washington68-66
25/02/26HSt. Louis Billikens77-62
21/02/26HDuquesne78-66
Sienalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HPrinceton82-68
03/11/26ABryant University75-80
19/03/26ADuke65-71
11/03/26AMerrimack Warriors64-54
09/03/26HFairfield76-61
08/03/26HMount St. Mary's63-58
01/03/26HRider76-61
28/02/26AFairfield58-72
22/02/26HSt. Peters72-63
21/02/26AMerrimack Warriors72-79 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dayton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeWL50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game82.582.5-
Allowed / game69.569.5-
Point differential+13.0+13.0-
Avg total152.0152.0-
Over 151.550%50%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %50%50%-
Siena
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game78.582.075.0
Allowed / game74.068.080.0
Point differential+4.5+14.0-5.0
Avg total152.5150.0155.0
Over 151.550%0%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic 10 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Richmond Spiders330100%95.358.7+36.7
2 George Washington220100%83.050.0+33.0
3 Rhode Island220100%93.562.5+31.0
4 Loyola Chicago220100%76.552.5+24.0
5 George Mason220100%75.052.5+22.5
6 St. Louis Billikens220100%91.075.5+15.5
7 Davidson220100%82.068.5+13.5
8 Saint Josephs Hawks220100%74.565.0+9.5
9 Duquesne220100%73.064.5+8.5
10 St. Bonaventure21150%79.564.0+15.5
11 Dayton21150%82.569.5+13.0
12 VCU Rams21150%85.080.5+4.5
13 Fordham21150%74.079.0-5.0
14 La Salle21150%71.587.0-15.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sacred Heart32167%88.064.7+23.3
2 Merrimack Warriors32167%65.760.0+5.7
3 Iona32167%64.369.3-5.0
4 Quinnipiac32167%68.076.0-8.0
5 Siena21150%78.574.0+4.5
6 Fairfield21150%67.569.0-1.5
7 Mount St. Mary's21150%60.077.0-17.0
8 Marist31233%70.370.7-0.3
9 Canisius31233%74.381.7-7.3
10 Manhattan31233%64.373.0-8.7
11 St. Peters3030%49.759.3-9.7
12 Rider3030%58.378.7-20.3
13 Niagara2020%56.582.0-25.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Dayton454489
Siena465399
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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