Evansville hosts Miami (Ohio) in a tightly contested NCAA matchup on 14 November 2026, with neither side holding a clear edge as the teams enter the game with identical 50% win probabilities according to Pythia. Evansville's season record of 2-1 reflects a modest 75.3 points scored and 73.0 points allowed per game, while Miami (Ohio) stands undefeated at 2-0 with 83.0 points per game and 75.0 allowed, placing them at 90 in the league. Evansville has won both of its home games, averaging 79.0 points at home, and has won two of its last five, though a recent 68-73 loss to Middle Tenn. St. shows some vulnerability. Miami (Ohio) has secured victories in all three of its recent games, including a 86-77 win over James Madison, and has a 1-0 road record with 86.0 points per game on the road. Historically, Evansville has bested Miami (Ohio) once, 101-87 in 2019. Pythia projects a 77-77 scoreline, with a total of 153.5 points and a 76% chance that Evansville will cover the 8.0-point spread; the over on the 152.5 line has a 52% probability, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Evansville can maintain its home-court advantage against a Miami (Ohio) squad that has shown recent offensive consistency.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Evansville winLost
50.2%fair 1.99
Best odds4.40
Implied22.1%
Edge+28.1pp
Miami (Ohio) winWon
49.8%fair 2.01
Best odds1.24
Implied77.9%
Edge-28.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
60.2%
@ 1.65-4.3pp
Under 149
39.8%
@ 2.62+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Over 154
Over 154
47.9%
@ 1.90-2.7pp
Under 154
52.1%
@ 1.94+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.81
Over/Under 159Actual: Over 159
Over 159
35.9%
@ 2.50-1.6pp
Under 159
64.1%
@ 1.50+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Evansville total 67.5Actual: Evansville over 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.36
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 2.92
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.31
Under
Betano
2.92
Bet365
2.90
Evansville total 72 · main lineActual: Evansville over 72
Over 72
68.2%
@ 1.88+18.8pp
Under 72
31.8%
@ 1.85-18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Evansville total 76Actual: Evansville over 76
Over 76
52.8%
Under 76
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami (Ohio) total 75Actual: Miami (Ohio) over 75
Over 75
56.6%
Under 75
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami (Ohio) total 79 · main lineActual: Miami (Ohio) over 79
Over 79
40.7%
@ 1.85-9.3pp
Under 79
59.3%
@ 1.85+9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Miami (Ohio) total 82.5Actual: Miami (Ohio) over 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.52
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Evansville +6Actual: Miami (Ohio) -6
EVAN +6
70.1%
@ 2.20+27.7pp
MIAM -6
29.9%
@ 1.62-27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
EVAN
Bet365
2.20
MIAM
Bet365
1.62
Spread Evansville +9 · main lineActual: Evansville +9
EVAN +9
79.0%
@ 1.91+28.4pp
MIAM -9
21.0%
@ 2.05-28.4pp
Best 5 market prices
EVAN
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.74
MIAM
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread Evansville +12Actual: Evansville +12
EVAN +12
85.8%
@ 1.45+21.2pp
MIAM -12
14.2%
@ 2.65-21.2pp
Best 5 market prices
EVAN
Bet365
1.45
MIAM
Bet365
2.65
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
EvansvilleMiami (Ohio)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Evansville +7
73.3%
2.05
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
-
+31.2pp
Lost
Evansville +8
76.3%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathon Bet
2.04
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.86
+30.2pp
Push
Evansville +7.5
74.1%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.10
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.91
+30.2pp
Lost
Evansville +8.5
77.0%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.98
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.86
+28.8pp
Won
Evansville +9
79.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.74
+28.4pp
Won
Evansville +6.5
71.1%
2.17
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Lost
Evansville +6
70.1%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Lost
Evansville +9.5
79.6%
1.79
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
+26.3pp
Won
Evansville +10
81.5%
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.64
-
+26.1pp
Won
Evansville +10.5
82.0%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.58
-
+24.6pp
Won
Evansville +11.5
84.2%
1.56
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Evansville +11
83.8%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Evansville +12.5
86.1%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Evansville +13.5
87.9%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Evansville over 71
71.7%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Evansville +12
85.8%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Evansville +14.5
89.4%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Evansville +13
87.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Evansville +15.5
90.9%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Evansville +14
89.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Evansville +16.5
92.1%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Evansville +15
90.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Evansville over 70.5
72.7%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Evansville +16
92.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Evansville +19.5
95.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Evansville over 69.5
75.8%
1.49
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Evansville +18.5
94.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Evansville +24.5
97.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Evansville +23.5
97.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Over 143.5
72.2%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.5%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 162.5
71.2%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Over 144
71.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 126.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 144.5
70.1%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 127.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
90.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 162
70.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Over 141.5
76.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 177.5
92.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 60.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 132.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
84.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 176.5
91.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 62.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 61.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 142.5
74.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 137.5
83.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 63.5
90.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Under 172.5
87.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 64.5
88.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Under 171.5
86.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Evansville under 89.5
89.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 167.5
80.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 65.5
86.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 66.5
83.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Evansville under 88.5
87.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
78.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Evansville under 87.5
85.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 67.5
81.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) +11.5
83.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 68.5
78.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Evansville under 86.5
82.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 69.5
75.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Evansville under 85.5
80.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 70.5
72.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) +10.5
81.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Evansville under 84.5
77.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
Evansville under 83.5
74.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Evansville under 82.5
71.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) +6.5
70.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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