PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Florida Atlantic faces Florida Gulf Coast on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Florida Atlantic the clear favourite, assigning it an 87% chance to win because the team has a 2-1 record, averages 80.0 points per game and allows 82.3, while Florida Gulf Coast sits 1-2, scores 85.3 and concedes 81.0. Florida Atlantic has gone 2-0 at home, scoring 84.5 and allowing 75.0, and has won three of its last five games, including a 95-90 victory over William & Mary at home on 11 November and a 74-60 win over LIU Sharks on 2 November; the only recent loss was a 71-97 defeat to Wright State away on 6 November. Florida Gulf Coast has lost both of its road games, averaging 83.5 points and allowing 88.0, and has won two of its last five, with a 89-67 home win over New College (FL) on 6 November and a 95-96 loss to UCF Knights away on 2 November. Their head-to-head record is tied 2-2, the last meeting ending 81-76 for Florida Atlantic on 7 December 2025. Pythia projects a 83-70 score, a total of 152.9 points, and a 3% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 80.0 | 82.3 | 162.3 | -2.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 84.5 | 75.0 | 159.5 | +9.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 71.0 | 97.0 | 168.0 | -26.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 72.9 | 74.2 | 147.1 | -1.3 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.6 | 76.0 | 150.6 | -1.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 78.8 | 87.5 | 166.3 | -8.7 | 17% |
| vs Similar (12) | 73.6 | 73.6 | 147.2 | +0.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 79.4 | 73.4 | 152.7 | +6.0 | 64% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.3 | 81.0 | 166.3 | +4.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 89.0 | 67.0 | 156.0 | +22.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 83.5 | 88.0 | 171.5 | -4.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.9 | 73.6 | 149.5 | +2.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.2 | 73.8 | 153.0 | +5.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 73.1 | 81.4 | 154.5 | -8.2 | 12% |
| vs Similar (13) | 78.2 | 79.8 | 158.0 | -1.7 | 31% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 76.3 | 66.4 | 142.8 | +9.9 | 78% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.0 | 34.9 | 70.8 | +1.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 38.4 | 33.8 | 72.2 | +4.6 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.2 | 36.1 | 69.3 | -2.9 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.7 | 37.1 | 70.8 | -3.4 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.6 | 35.8 | 68.4 | -3.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 33.8 | 36.8 | 70.7 | -3.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 34.2 | 34.7 | 68.8 | -0.5 | 42% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 38.0 | 33.8 | 71.8 | +4.2 | 55% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.5 | 34.5 | 70.1 | +1.0 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.9 | 35.1 | 72.1 | +1.8 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.3 | 34.0 | 68.3 | +0.3 | 44% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.6 | 33.7 | 69.3 | +1.9 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.2 | 35.6 | 72.8 | +1.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 34.5 | 37.6 | 72.1 | -3.1 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 36.1 | 35.4 | 71.5 | +0.7 | 54% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 35.7 | 30.6 | 66.2 | +5.1 | 78% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 07/12/25 | Florida Gulf Coast v Florida Atlantic | 76-81 |
| 30/11/24 | Florida Atlantic v Florida Gulf Coast | 78-80 |
| 31/12/23 | Florida Gulf Coast v Florida Atlantic | 72-68 |
| 08/12/22 | Florida Atlantic v Florida Gulf Coast | 85-53 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | William & Mary | 95-90 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Wright State | 71-97 |
| 03/11/26 | H | LIU Sharks | 74-60 |
| 13/03/26 | A | North Texas | 70-74 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Temple | 63-59 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Wichita State | 70-88 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Charlotte | 77-76 OT |
| 27/02/26 | H | Temple | 77-73 |
| 22/02/26 | A | North Texas | 72-73 |
| 19/02/26 | A | UTSA Roadrunners | 60-52 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Georgia | 72-80 |
| 07/11/26 | H | New College (FL) | 89-67 |
| 03/11/26 | A | UCF Knights | 95-96 OT |
| 07/03/26 | A | Central Arkansas | 63-73 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Lipscomb | 77-53 |
| 04/03/26 | H | North Alabama | 69-58 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Stetson | 63-78 |
| 27/02/26 | A | North Florida | 70-76 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Central Arkansas | 75-71 OT |
| 19/02/26 | H | Jacksonville Dolphins | 86-84 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 80.0 | 84.5 | 71.0 |
| Allowed / game | 82.3 | 75.0 | 97.0 |
| Point differential | -2.3 | +9.5 | -26.0 |
| Avg total | 162.3 | 159.5 | 168.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 85.3 | 89.0 | 83.5 |
| Allowed / game | 81.0 | 67.0 | 88.0 |
| Point differential | +4.3 | +22.0 | -4.5 |
| Avg total | 166.3 | 156.0 | 171.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tulsa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 65.3 | +25.3 |
| 2 |  North Texas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 64.3 | +25.7 |
| 3 |  Wichita State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 73.3 | +19.3 |
| 4 |  East Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.7 | 71.7 | +5.0 |
| 5 |  Tulane | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 87.3 | 82.7 | +4.7 |
| 6 |  UAB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 75.3 | +4.7 |
| 7 |  Charlotte | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.3 | 68.3 | +4.0 |
| 8 |  UTSA Roadrunners | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.7 | 74.0 | +2.7 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 82.3 | -2.3 |
| 10 |  Memphis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 89.7 | -6.3 |
| 11 |  Rice | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 72.7 | +8.7 |
| 12 |  South Florida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 86.0 | 78.7 | +7.3 |
| 13 |  Temple | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 75.3 | -8.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eastern Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.0 | 69.0 | +25.0 |
| 2 |  Central Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.7 | 67.0 | +23.7 |
| 3 |  Austin Peay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.7 | 65.7 | +21.0 |
| 4 |  Lipscomb | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.8 | 78.5 | -3.8 |
| 5 |  North Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 79.0 | -9.2 |
| 6 |  Queens Royals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.2 | 102.2 | -15.0 |
| 7 | Florida Gulf Coast | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 85.3 | 81.0 | +4.3 |
| 8 |  North Florida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.7 | 88.7 | -27.0 |
| 9 |  Bellarmine | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 72.0 | 86.8 | -14.8 |
| 10 |  West Georgia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 74.7 | -14.3 |
| 11 |  Stetson | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.5 | 83.0 | -22.5 |
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