PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Florida State faces Ball State in an NCAA contest on 17 November 2026, with the model favouring the Seminoles at 91% versus 9% for the Cardinals, reflecting Florida State's 1-2 record, 77.3 points scored and 87.0 allowed per game, and Ball State's 1-2 record, 70.0 points scored and 66.7 allowed per game. Florida State has won one of its three home games, scoring 77.3 and conceding 87.0, while Ball State has gone 0-1 on the road, scoring 55.0 and allowing 67.0. In the last five games Florida State posted two wins and three losses, including a 72-81 loss to Florida on 10 November and a 91-68 victory over Troy on 6 November, whereas Ball State's recent five feature three wins and two losses, with a 89-64 win over Brescia on 9 November and a 66-69 loss to Indiana State on 6 November. The projected score is 83-67, with a total of 150.0 points and a 2% chance of overtime. The Seminoles are projected to cover the spread, and the over is unlikely given the modest total.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 79.0 | 80.2 | 159.2 | -1.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (4) | 79.0 | 80.2 | 159.2 | -1.2 | 50% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 80.9 | 79.6 | 160.5 | +1.3 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.0 | 80.2 | 159.2 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 71.9 | 80.4 | 152.3 | -8.5 | 25% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 81.4 | 82.2 | 163.6 | -0.8 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 86.8 | 65.0 | 151.8 | +21.8 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 68.8 | 72.5 | 141.2 | -3.8 | 25% |
| Season at home (2) | 77.5 | 66.5 | 144.0 | +11.0 | 50% |
| Season away (2) | 60.0 | 78.5 | 138.5 | -18.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.9 | 69.3 | 140.2 | +1.6 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.0 | 71.8 | 143.8 | +0.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 66.8 | 78.6 | 145.4 | -11.8 | 10% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 66.3 | 71.0 | 137.3 | -4.7 | 36% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 65.5 | 57.0 | 122.5 | +8.5 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.7 | 36.4 | 74.2 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.7 | 34.7 | 72.4 | +2.9 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.8 | 39.0 | 76.8 | -1.2 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.7 | 34.5 | 73.2 | +4.2 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.4 | 36.4 | 71.8 | -1.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 34.8 | 39.4 | 74.2 | -4.6 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 39.3 | 35.6 | 74.9 | +3.6 | 64% | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | 41.0 | 30.2 | 71.2 | +10.8 | 75% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 30.9 | 32.5 | 63.4 | -1.6 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 35.6 | 31.8 | 67.4 | +3.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 26.8 | 33.1 | 59.9 | -6.4 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 29.6 | 32.9 | 62.5 | -3.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.6 | 34.4 | 67.0 | -1.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 29.4 | 39.4 | 68.8 | -10.0 | 10% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 29.1 | 31.1 | 60.2 | -2.1 | 36% | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | 33.2 | 27.8 | 61.0 | +5.5 | 75% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Texas A&M-CC | 84-60 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Florida | 72-81 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Troy | 91-68 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Florida A&M | 69-112 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Duke | 79-80 |
| 11/03/26 | H | California | 95-89 |
| 07/03/26 | H | SMU Mustangs | 91-78 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Pittsburgh | 75-74 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Georgia Tech | 80-71 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Miami (FL) | 73-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | SMU Mustangs | 65-90 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Brescia | 89-64 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Indiana State | 66-69 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Georgia Southern | 55-67 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Central Michigan | 85-69 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Western Michigan | 74-71 OT |
| 28/02/26 | A | Northern Illinois | 79-43 |
| 25/02/26 | H | UMass | 74-73 OT |
| 20/02/26 | H | Akron | 65-78 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Ohio | 57-69 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLW | 50% |
| Home | LWLW | 50% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 50% | 50% | - |
| Points / game | 79.0 | 79.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 80.2 | 80.2 | - |
| Point differential | -1.2 | -1.2 | - |
| Avg total | 159.2 | 159.2 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWL | 25% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 68.8 | 77.5 | 60.0 |
| Allowed / game | 72.5 | 66.5 | 78.5 |
| Point differential | -3.8 | +11.0 | -18.5 |
| Avg total | 141.2 | 144.0 | 138.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 3 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 7 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 9 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 10 |  Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 11 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 12 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 15 |  Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 16 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 | Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 62.7 | +21.3 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.7 | +20.3 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 |  Miami (Ohio) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 75.0 | +8.0 |
| 5 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 6 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 7 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Ohio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.0 | 75.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 75.5 | +5.8 |
| 10 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 11 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Ball State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 68.8 | 72.5 | -3.8 |
| 13 |  Toledo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.0 | 78.5 | -8.5 |
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