PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Florida vs Mississippi St. Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 108-74
0-0 47-35 0-0 61-39
Position#28
Record23-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game71.4
Florida 🏆
USA
vs
Position#257
Record14-15
FormWWLLL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game79.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Florida v Mississippi St.
03 Mar 2026
FLOR108
MISS74
24 Jan 2024
FLOR79
MISS70
09 Mar 2023
FLOR68
MISS69
19 Jan 2022
FLOR80
MISS72
28 Jan 2020
FLOR71
MISS78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mississippi St. winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FloridaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Auburn
#188
L
67-76
67
76
-9
H24/01
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
95-48
95
48
+47
A29/01
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
100-77
100
77
+23
H01/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
86-67
86
67
+19
A08/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
86-66
86
66
+20
A12/02
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
92-83
92
83
+9
H14/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
76-62
76
62
+14
H18/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
94-75
94
75
+19
A21/02
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
84-71
84
71
+13
A26/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
111-77
111
77
+34
H01/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
28-43
0-0
39-33
0-0
48-20
0-0
47-28
0-0
46-36
0-0
54-41
0-0
30-19
0-0
56-48
0-0
43-27
0-0
43-39
0-0
43-34
0-0
49-49
0-0
39-29
0-0
37-33
0-0
43-32
0-0
51-43
0-0
36-39
0-0
48-32
0-0
53-34
0-0
58-43
159.3Avg total
89.1Scored
70.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)87.171.4158.6+15.779%
Season at home (18)88.269.9158.1+18.389%
Season away (11)85.473.9159.3+11.564%
Last 10 (10)89.170.2159.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)91.473.6165.0+17.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)72.774.3147.0-1.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)87.970.8158.7+17.185%
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mississippi St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vanderbilt
#37
L
56-88
56
88
-32
H24/01
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
80-66
80
66
+14
A29/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
79-84
79
84
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
68-88
68
88
-20
H07/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
64-73
64
73
-9
H12/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A14/02
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
91-85
91
85
+6
H19/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
L
89-97
89
97
-8
A21/02
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
75-100
75
100
-25
A26/02
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
64-88
64
88
-24
H28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
30-51
0-0
26-37
0-0
44-21
0-0
36-45
0-0
35-42
0-0
44-42
0-0
30-43
0-0
38-45
0-0
28-39
0-0
36-34
0-0
47-28
0-0
43-50
0-0
49-33
0-0
42-52
0-0
39-46
0-0
50-51
0-0
33-63
0-0
42-37
0-0
23-54
0-0
41-34
160.3Avg total
75.6Scored
84.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)78.279.8158.0-1.548%
Season at home (17)76.375.6151.9+0.753%
Season away (12)81.085.7166.7-4.742%
Last 10 (10)75.684.7160.3-9.130%
Last 5 (5)81.889.6171.4-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)76.283.1159.3-6.833%
vs Similar (11)80.375.5155.8+4.764%
vs Weaker (1)86.062.0148.0+24.0100%
This opponent (Florida) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +9.6+9.6Q2: -6.2-6.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +9.3+9.3Q4: -2.9-2.9
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +9.6+9.6Q2: -6.2-6.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +9.3+9.3Q4: -2.9-2.9
FloridaMississippi St.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Auburn
#188
L
28-43
28
43
-15
H24/01
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
48-20
48
20
+28
A29/01
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H01/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
30-19
30
19
+11
A08/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
43-27
43
27
+16
A12/02
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H14/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H18/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
43-32
43
32
+11
A21/02
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A26/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H01/03
NCAA
72.2Avg total
40.9Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.732.473.1+8.470%-
Last 30 at home (18)42.431.774.1+10.789%-
Last 30 away (12)38.233.471.7+4.842%-
Last 10 (10)40.931.372.2+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)42.833.676.4+9.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)32.739.071.7-6.30%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)41.631.673.3+10.078%-
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mississippi St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vanderbilt
#37
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H24/01
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
44-21
44
21
+23
A29/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A31/01
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H07/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
28-39
28
39
-11
H12/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A14/02
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H19/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A21/02
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
33-63
33
63
-30
A26/02
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
23-54
23
54
-31
H28/02
NCAA
77.8Avg total
35.8Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.438.074.4-1.743%-
Last 30 at home (18)34.936.471.4-1.550%-
Last 30 away (12)38.540.478.9-1.933%-
Last 10 (10)35.842.077.8-6.230%-
Last 5 (5)38.244.883.0-6.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)36.140.176.2-4.133%-
vs Similar (11)36.734.771.5+2.055%-
vs Weaker (1)38.037.075.0+1.0100%-
This opponent (Florida) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Florida wins
3
Mississippi St. wins
Floridalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HArkansas111-77
26/02/26ATexas84-71
21/02/26AOle Miss94-75
18/02/26HSouth Carolina76-62
14/02/26HKentucky92-83
12/02/26AGeorgia86-66
08/02/26ATexas A&M86-67
01/02/26HAlabama100-77
29/01/26ASouth Carolina95-48
24/01/26HAuburn67-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HMissouri64-88
26/02/26AAlabama75-100
21/02/26ASouth Carolina89-97
19/02/26HAuburn91-85
14/02/26AOle Miss90-78
12/02/26HTennessee64-73
07/02/26HArkansas68-88
31/01/26AMissouri79-84
29/01/26ALSU80-66
24/01/26HVanderbilt56-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW79%
HomeLWWWW89%
AwayWWWWW64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %79%89%64%
Points / game87.188.285.4
Allowed / game71.469.973.9
Point differential+15.7+18.3+11.5
Avg total158.6158.1159.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+69%78%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)50% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mississippi St.
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL48%
HomeLLLWL53%
AwayWLWLL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %48%53%42%
Points / game78.276.381.0
Allowed / game79.875.685.7
Point differential-1.5+0.7-4.7
Avg total158.0151.9166.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%24%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)60% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %10%12%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida2923679%87.171.4+15.7
2 Vanderbilt2922776%86.974.5+12.4
3 Alabama3022873%92.083.6+8.4
4 Arkansas2921872%89.879.7+10.1
5 Georgia3021970%90.078.7+11.3
6 Tennessee3021970%80.068.9+11.1
7 Texas A&M30201067%88.379.1+9.3
8 Missouri30201067%79.874.8+4.9
9 Kentucky30191163%81.473.4+8.0
10 Texas29181162%84.375.5+8.8
11 Oklahoma30161453%82.677.2+5.3
12 LSU29151452%81.377.3+4.0
13 Auburn29151452%83.379.9+3.4
14 Mississippi St.29141548%78.279.8-1.5
15 Ole Miss29121741%75.475.9-0.5
16 South Carolina30121840%75.376.7-1.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Florida047061108
Mississippi St.03503974
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.