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Germany vs Croatia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 91-89 (OT)
22-24 19-26 21-17 15-10 14-12
Position#8
Record2-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game86.7
Allowed / game75.3
Germany 🏆
vs
Position#5
Record7-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game94.3
Allowed / game69.6
EuropeWorld CupRound 4· Telekom Dome
Other2027
Meetings · Germany v Croatia
01 Mar 2026
GERM91
CROA89
03 Jul 2021
GERM86
CROA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Germany winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Croatia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGermany
Date
Competition
Lithuania
#4
W
107-88
107
88
+19
101avg 90
A30/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
120-57
120
57
+63
128avg 90
H01/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
91-61
91
61
+30
87avg 90
A03/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
85-58
85
58
+27
76avg 90
H06/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
W
99-91
99
91
+8
92avg 90
H10/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
98-86
98
86
+12
93avg 90
H12/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
W
88-83
88
83
+5
91avg 90
A14/09
EuroBasket
Israel
#67
W
89-69
89
69
+20
no box
H28/11
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
83-64
83
64
+19
no box
A01/12
World Cup
Croatia
#5
L
88-93
88
93
-5
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-20
23-27
28-25
24-16
32-19
26-12
30-9
32-17
21-19
29-17
19-13
22-12
17-12
14-20
21-19
33-7
21-32
24-19
25-23
29-17
30-26
31-21
20-26
17-13
24-22
16-24
26-21
22-16
26-22
24-9
19-22
20-16
20-17
22-22
27-9
14-16
26-20
24-26
22-29
16-18
169.8Avg total
94.8Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)86.775.3162.0+11.367%
Season at home (1)89.069.0158.0+20.0100%
Season away (2)85.578.5164.0+7.050%
Last 10 (10)94.875.0169.8+19.890%
Last 5 (5)89.279.0168.2+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)81.884.2166.0-2.550%
vs Similar (2)82.078.0160.0+4.0100%
vs Weaker (24)93.673.9167.5+19.888%
This opponent (Croatia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCroatia
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#17
L
90-110
90
110
-20
no box
A24/11
EuroBasket
France
#3
L
80-83
80
83
-3
no box
H21/02
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
104-67
104
67
+37
no box
A24/02
EuroBasket
Norway
#75
W
101-68
101
68
+33
no box
A06/08
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
100-71
100
71
+29
no box
H09/08
World Cup
Norway
#75
W
102-53
102
53
+49
no box
H16/08
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
79-76
79
76
+3
no box
A20/08
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
100-60
100
60
+40
no box
H28/11
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
85-71
85
71
+14
no box
A01/12
World Cup
Germany
#8
W
93-88
93
88
+5
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-22
29-28
13-33
27-27
17-20
18-17
16-22
29-24
26-14
22-11
26-18
30-24
20-21
31-18
27-12
23-17
24-14
32-29
21-16
23-12
28-14
34-8
22-13
18-18
12-21
24-17
24-19
19-19
28-8
19-19
28-23
25-10
25-25
22-17
24-14
14-15
20-26
26-24
29-22
18-16
168.1Avg total
93.4Scored
74.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)94.369.6163.9+24.7100%
Season at home (4)98.868.0166.8+30.8100%
Season away (3)88.371.7160.0+16.7100%
Last 10 (10)93.474.7168.1+18.780%
Last 5 (5)91.869.6161.4+22.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)79.081.0160.0-2.00%
vs Similar (6)86.089.2175.2-3.233%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)87.568.4155.9+19.187%
This opponent (Germany) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: +6.9+6.9Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +8.1+8.1Q4: +4.4+4.4
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +4.0+4.0Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: +6.9+6.9Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +8.1+8.1Q4: +4.4+4.4
GermanyCroatia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GermanyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lithuania
#4
W
55-47
55
47
+8
A30/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
58-31
58
31
+27
H01/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
50-36
50
36
+14
A03/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H06/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H10/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H12/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A14/09
EuroBasket
Israel
#67
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H28/11
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A01/12
World Cup
Croatia
#5
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A27/02
World Cup
88.8Avg total
48.2Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.638.183.7+7.573%-
Last 30 at home (18)45.936.282.2+9.772%-
Last 30 away (12)45.141.086.1+4.175%-
Last 10 (10)48.240.688.8+7.670%-
Last 5 (5)48.641.890.4+6.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)39.840.880.5-1.050%-
vs Similar (2)41.540.582.0+1.050%-
vs Weaker (24)46.937.584.4+9.479%-
This opponent (Croatia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CroatiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#17
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A24/11
EuroBasket
France
#3
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H21/02
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
48-25
48
25
+23
A24/02
EuroBasket
Norway
#75
W
51-39
51
39
+12
A06/08
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H09/08
World Cup
Norway
#75
W
62-22
62
22
+40
H16/08
World Cup
Denmark
#79
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A20/08
World Cup
Cyprus
#92
W
47-27
47
27
+20
H28/11
World Cup
Israel
#67
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A01/12
World Cup
Germany
#8
L
46-50
46
50
-4
H27/02
World Cup
85.1Avg total
47.8Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.536.379.8+7.263%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.034.980.9+11.175%-
Last 30 away (14)40.637.978.5+2.850%-
Last 10 (10)47.837.385.1+10.560%-
Last 5 (5)47.635.883.4+11.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.043.077.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (6)42.045.587.5-3.533%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)44.333.677.9+10.774%-
This opponent (Germany) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Germanytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Germany: 97.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.321.5
60.9%
-43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.512.3
39.0%
-36.9
🏀 Free throws21.817.5
80.3%
-17.5
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Croatiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Croatia: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.118.3
55.3%
-36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.812.1
40.6%
-36.3
🏀 Free throws19.215.0
78.1%
-15.0
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Germany
LWWWWWWWWW
Croatia
WWWWWWWWLL
#8
League position
#5
+27.8
Net rating
+22.7
129.0
Offensive rating
120.4
101.2
Defensive rating
97.6
59.8%
Effective FG%
57.9%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
47.5%
13.3%
Turnover %
15.9%
33.5%
Off. rebound %
29.0%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
39.0%
3-point %
40.6%
60.9%
Assist %
74.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Germany   ■ Croatia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Germany wins
1
Croatia wins
DateGameScore
27/02/26Croatia v Germany93-88
03/07/21Germany v Croatia86-76
Germanylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26ACroatia88-93
01/12/25ACyprus83-64
28/11/25HIsrael89-69
14/09/25ATurkey88-83
12/09/25HFinland98-86
10/09/25HSlovenia99-91
06/09/25HPortugal85-58
03/09/25AFinland91-61
01/09/25HGreat Britain120-57
30/08/25ALithuania107-88
Croatialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26HGermany93-88
01/12/25AIsrael85-71
28/11/25HCyprus100-60
20/08/25ADenmark79-76
16/08/25HNorway102-53
09/08/25HDenmark100-71
06/08/25ANorway101-68
24/02/25ACyprus104-67
21/02/25HFrance80-83
24/11/24ABosnia & Herzegovina90-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Germany
World Cup 2027
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game86.789.085.5
Allowed / game75.369.078.5
Point differential+11.3+20.0+7.0
Avg total162.0158.0164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Croatia
World Cup 2027
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game94.398.888.3
Allowed / game69.668.071.7
Point differential+24.7+30.8+16.7
Avg total163.9166.8160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%75%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Jordan330100%82.355.7+26.7
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Croatia770100%94.369.6+24.7
4 Ivory Coast220100%93.069.5+23.5
5 Spain330100%83.363.7+19.7
6 Canada330100%100.382.7+17.7
7 Uruguay330100%79.362.0+17.3
8 Turkey330100%86.769.7+17.0
9 Angola220100%86.570.0+16.5
10 Brazil330100%84.770.7+14.0
11 Australia440100%87.275.5+11.8
12 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
13 Mali220100%85.075.0+10.0
14 Poland330100%86.381.0+5.3
15 Colombia220100%83.078.0+5.0
16 Japan43175%82.074.0+8.0
17 Finland43175%78.576.5+2.0
18 Ukraine75271%80.174.7+5.4
19 Argentina32167%76.359.3+17.0
20 Slovenia32167%95.378.7+16.7
21 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
22 Germany32167%86.775.3+11.3
23 Greece32167%77.366.3+11.0
24 Italy32167%83.773.0+10.7
25 Portugal32167%83.373.3+10.0
26 Iran32167%80.070.7+9.3
27 Lebanon32167%84.074.7+9.3
28 Qatar32167%86.377.0+9.3
29 Mexico32167%91.084.0+7.0
30 Saudi Arabia32167%73.367.3+6.0
31 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
32 France32167%76.372.3+4.0
33 Estonia32167%91.389.0+2.3
34 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
35 Jamaica32167%95.093.7+1.3
36 Serbia32167%80.780.0+0.7
37 Iceland32167%83.783.7+0.0
38 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
39 Montenegro32167%69.774.3-4.7
40 Czech Republic32167%84.390.3-6.0
41 Netherlands85362%81.276.1+5.1
42 Switzerland138562%74.267.8+6.4
43 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
44 Hungary74357%81.174.7+6.4
45 Romania116555%76.276.8-0.6
46 Senegal21150%89.578.0+11.5
47 Philippines42250%78.569.8+8.8
48 New Zealand42250%81.074.0+7.0
49 Austria126650%84.979.5+5.4
50 Dominican Republic21150%90.087.0+3.0
51 South Korea42250%76.876.8+0.0
52 China42250%84.885.8-1.0
53 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
54 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
55 D.R. Congo21150%73.087.5-14.5
56 Latvia31233%82.079.3+2.7
57 Israel31233%78.076.0+2.0
58 Bosnia & Herzegovina31233%75.775.7+0.0
59 Lithuania31233%85.085.3-0.3
60 Nigeria31233%69.375.3-6.0
61 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
62 Georgia31233%76.384.3-8.0
63 Great Britain31233%78.388.7-10.3
64 Panama31233%75.386.0-10.7
65 Bahamas31233%87.3100.3-13.0
66 Syria31233%61.781.3-19.7
67 Denmark72529%74.481.6-7.1
68 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
69 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
70 Chinese Taipei41325%76.883.8-7.0
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
75 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
76 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
77 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
78 Puerto Rico3030%89.095.0-6.0
79 Venezuela2020%81.087.0-6.0
80 Belgium4040%72.278.8-6.5
81 Egypt2020%74.584.5-10.0
82 Rwanda3030%68.378.7-10.3
83 Sweden3030%80.093.0-13.0
84 Chile3030%68.782.0-13.3
85 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
86 Iraq3030%69.786.0-16.3
87 Uganda2020%70.587.0-16.5
88 Madagascar2020%72.593.0-20.5
89 Cuba3030%66.089.7-23.7
90 India3030%60.385.0-24.7
91 Nicaragua1010%72.099.0-27.0
92 Guam4040%66.093.5-27.5
93 Cyprus3030%59.392.3-33.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Germany221921151491
Croatia242617101289
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