Gonzaga will host LSU on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model declaring Gonzaga the clear favourite at 93% versus 7% for LSU, a margin driven by Gonzaga's 1-1 record and 90.5 points per game against 73.0 allowed, while LSU boasts a flawless 3-0 record and 94.0 points per game with only 52.7 points allowed. Gonzaga's single home game saw a 109-68 victory over New Mexico State, and their last five contests yielded three wins and two losses, including a 72-78 loss to Purdue and a 68-74 defeat by Texas. LSU's five-game span also contains three wins and two losses, with recent home triumphs over Louisiana Tech, Texas Southern and New Orleans, scoring 90-50, 92-51 and 100-57 respectively. The Pythia projection sets a final score of 85-68, a total of 152.5 points, and a spread of -6.5 with an 82% chance Gonzaga will cover; the over/under line of 161.5 carries a 29% probability of exceeding. The model assigns a 2% chance of overtime, and the game will be played at Gonzaga's venue.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 90.5 | 73.0 | 163.5 | +17.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 109.0 | 68.0 | 177.0 | +41.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 72.0 | 78.0 | 150.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.5 | 64.7 | 141.2 | +11.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.2 | 70.4 | 150.6 | +9.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (2) | 66.5 | 89.5 | 156.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (28) | 83.3 | 66.0 | 149.3 | +17.3 | 89% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 94.0 | 52.7 | 146.7 | +41.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 94.0 | 52.7 | 146.7 | +41.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 87.0 | 78.7 | 165.7 | +8.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 91.0 | 67.8 | 158.8 | +23.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 71.5 | 83.6 | 155.1 | -12.1 | 0% |
| vs Similar (12) | 84.7 | 78.7 | 163.3 | +6.0 | 58% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 83.0 | 67.1 | 150.1 | +15.9 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.9 | 32.0 | 70.9 | +7.0 | 70% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.9 | 30.6 | 69.6 | +8.3 | 65% | 24% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 38.9 | 33.7 | 72.6 | +5.2 | 77% | 31% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.5 | 30.5 | 66.0 | +5.0 | 60% | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.0 | 34.6 | 69.6 | +0.4 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (2) | 31.0 | 44.5 | 75.5 | -13.5 | 0% | 50% |
| vs Weaker (28) | 39.5 | 31.1 | 70.6 | +8.4 | 75% | 25% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.8 | 36.7 | 74.5 | +1.1 | 47% | 30% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 39.5 | 35.9 | 75.4 | +3.6 | 56% | 31% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.9 | 37.6 | 73.4 | -1.7 | 36% | 29% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.9 | 35.9 | 76.8 | +5.0 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.6 | 28.8 | 74.4 | +16.8 | 80% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 33.2 | 40.2 | 73.4 | -7.0 | 20% | 30% |
| vs Similar (12) | 40.5 | 36.9 | 77.4 | +3.6 | 50% | 42% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 39.5 | 32.0 | 71.5 | +7.5 | 75% | 12% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga -7 | 81.7% | 2.06 | 2.32 | 2.10 | 1.98 | 1.97 | 1.93 | +40.5pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -7.5 | 79.7% | 2.12 | 2.42 | 2.18 | 2.15 | 1.93 | 1.92 | +40.2pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -8 | 79.2% | 2.21 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 1.97 | - | - | +39.7pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -10 | 73.5% | 2.70 | 2.70 | - | - | - | - | +39.2pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -9 | 76.4% | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - | - | - | +38.9pp | Lost |
| LSU under 75.5 | 78.0% | 2.31 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 2.15 | - | - | +38.9pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -6.5 | 82.2% | 1.96 | 2.21 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.93 | 1.92 | +38.8pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -6 | 84.1% | 1.94 | 2.10 | 1.96 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.85 | +38.5pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -11 | 70.4% | 2.90 | 2.90 | - | - | - | - | +38.5pp | Lost |
| LSU under 73.5 | 71.8% | 2.73 | 2.90 | 2.57 | - | - | - | +38.3pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -9.5 | 74.3% | 2.54 | 2.55 | 2.52 | - | - | - | +37.7pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -10.5 | 71.3% | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | - | - | - | +37.7pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -8.5 | 77.1% | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | - | - | - | +37.7pp | Lost |
| LSU under 74.5 | 75.0% | 2.42 | 2.50 | 2.35 | - | - | - | +37.0pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -5.5 | 84.4% | 1.92 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.93 | 1.90 | +36.4pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -5 | 86.2% | 1.83 | 1.89 | 1.84 | 1.81 | 1.80 | - | +35.6pp | Lost |
| LSU under 78 | 85.2% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | - | - | +35.2pp | Lost |
| LSU under 76.5 | 80.8% | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.02 | - | - | - | +34.1pp | Lost |
| LSU under 77.5 | 83.3% | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.85 | +34.0pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -4.5 | 86.5% | 1.78 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.75 | +33.7pp | Lost |
| LSU under 78.5 | 85.6% | 1.81 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +33.5pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -4 | 88.2% | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.68 | - | - | - | +33.4pp | Lost |
| LSU under 79.5 | 87.6% | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +32.4pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -3 | 89.8% | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - | +31.9pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -3.5 | 88.5% | 1.67 | 1.69 | 1.66 | 1.65 | - | - | +31.8pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -2.5 | 89.9% | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | +30.4pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -2 | 91.5% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +30.3pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga (regulation) | 91.5% | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.46 | 1.40 | - | - | +29.5pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -1.5 | 91.7% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +29.2pp | Lost |
| LSU under 80.5 | 89.4% | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +28.7pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga -1 | 92.6% | 1.43 | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | +27.6pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga win | 92.7% | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.43 | +27.3pp | Lost |
| Gonzaga +1 | 93.4% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +25.9pp | Push |
| Gonzaga +1.5 | 93.5% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +25.1pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +2 | 94.5% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +23.5pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +2.5 | 94.5% | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +23.5pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +3.5 | 95.3% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +22.3pp | Won |
| Under 164 | 76.8% | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.65 | 1.57 | - | - | +21.4pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 75.4% | 1.69 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.74 | 1.64 | 1.60 | +21.2pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 77.3% | 1.60 | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.53 | - | +20.8pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +4.5 | 96.0% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +19.8pp | Won |
| Under 161 | 70.7% | 1.84 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.80 | - | +19.2pp | Push |
| Under 162 | 72.9% | 1.78 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.71 | +18.7pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 71.4% | 1.79 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +18.6pp | Won |
| Under 163 | 74.9% | 1.71 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.64 | +18.3pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 73.4% | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.72 | +18.0pp | Won |
| Under 170.5 | 86.7% | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +17.7pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 85.4% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +17.5pp | Won |
| Under 170 | 86.6% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Won |
| Under 166 | 80.5% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +16.3pp | Won |
| Under 169 | 85.2% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Won |
| Under 165 | 78.7% | 1.57 | 1.65 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Won |
| Under 165.5 | 79.1% | 1.54 | 1.69 | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | +16.1pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 84.0% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +16.0pp | Won |
| Under 167 | 82.1% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Won |
| Under 166.5 | 80.8% | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +15.6pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 82.4% | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +15.3pp | Won |
| Under 168 | 83.7% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Won |
| Under 171.5 | 88.0% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +13.9pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +9.5 | 98.3% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +12.2pp | Won |
| Under 176.5 | 93.0% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | +10.7pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +14.5 | 99.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 98.3% | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 77.5 | 76.6% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.30 | - | - | +6.6pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 78.5 | 73.4% | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 75.5 | 82.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Gonzaga +19.5 | 99.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 76.5 | 79.6% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +5.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 71.5 | 90.8% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 73.5 | 87.0% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 72.5 | 89.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 69.5 | 93.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +4.9pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 70.5 | 92.3% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga over 74.5 | 84.8% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 99.5 | 93.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 98.5 | 91.9% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 96.5 | 88.5% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 97.5 | 90.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 94.5 | 84.1% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +0.2pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 95.5 | 86.4% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -0.3pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 93.5 | 81.5% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | -1.6pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 90.5 | 72.4% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | -2.1pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 92.5 | 78.7% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -3.1pp | Won |
| Gonzaga under 91.5 | 75.6% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -4.5pp | Won |
| Over 136.5 | 83.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.5pp | Won |
| Over 141.5 | 75.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -14.0pp | Won |
| LSU over 59.5 | 79.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -14.2pp | Won |
| LSU over 60.5 | 76.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -15.7pp | Won |
| LSU over 61.5 | 73.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -18.2pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | New Mexico State | 109-68 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Purdue | 72-78 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Texas | 68-74 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Kennesaw State | 73-64 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Santa Clara | 79-68 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Oregon State | 65-56 |
| 01/03/26 | A | St. Marys (CA) | 59-70 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Portland | 89-48 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Pacific | 71-62 |
| 19/02/26 | A | San Francisco | 80-59 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Louisiana Tech | 90-50 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Texas Southern | 92-51 |
| 04/11/26 | H | New Orleans | 100-57 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Kentucky | 82-87 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Texas A&M | 91-94 OT |
| 04/03/26 | A | Auburn | 74-88 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Oklahoma | 67-83 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Ole Miss | 106-99 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Alabama | 83-90 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Texas | 85-88 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 90.5 | 109.0 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 68.0 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | +17.5 | +41.0 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 163.5 | 177.0 | 150.0 |
| Over 160.5 | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 94.0 | 94.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 52.7 | 52.7 | - |
| Point differential | +41.3 | +41.3 | - |
| Avg total | 146.7 | 146.7 | - |
| Over 160.5 | 0% | 0% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.2 | 69.5 | +23.8 | |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 72.5 | +13.2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 63.3 | +9.3 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 76.5 | +17.0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 75.5 | +8.8 | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 53.7 | +21.0 | |
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 96.0 | 70.0 | +26.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 73.0 | +17.5 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 87.0 | 93.6 | -6.6 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 73.3 | -3.0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.5 | 74.8 | +9.8 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.5 | 79.5 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 56.5 | +22.2 | |
| 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 76.0 | +21.0 | |
| 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 | |
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 | |
| 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 | |
| 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 67.5 | +19.8 | |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 67.8 | +15.5 | |
| 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.8 | 63.8 | +12.0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 | |
| 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 | |
| 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.7 | 64.0 | +14.7 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 43 | 80 | |
| 39 | 42 | 81 |
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