PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Grambling St. will host Southern Miss on 19 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that feels almost evenly matched, with only a 55% chance for the home side to win according to Pythia. Grambling St. has gone 1-1 this season, scoring 75.5 points per game while allowing 90.0, and they are 241st in the league; at home they are unbeaten, 1-0, with 89.0 points for and 87.0 against, and they won three of their last five games. Southern Miss, meanwhile, is 2-2 overall, averaging 72.0 points and conceding 70.8, and they sit 219th; on the road they are 0-2, 61.0 points for and 84.0 against, and they have won two of their last five. Their head-to-head record is even, 1-1, with the most recent contest ending 68-60 in favour of Southern Miss. Pythia projects a 73-72 score, a total of 144.8 points, and a 5% chance of overtime. The projected spread is 0, and the model sees a 55% probability that Grambling St. will cover. The game will be played at Grambling St.'s home court.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 75.5 | 90.0 | 165.5 | -14.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 89.0 | 87.0 | 176.0 | +2.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 62.0 | 93.0 | 155.0 | -31.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.7 | 73.1 | 143.8 | -2.4 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 72.6 | 144.2 | -1.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 68.2 | 85.2 | 153.5 | -17.0 | 25% |
| vs Similar (15) | 68.9 | 72.0 | 140.9 | -3.1 | 27% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 70.7 | 64.8 | 135.5 | +5.9 | 60% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 72.0 | 70.8 | 142.8 | +1.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 83.0 | 57.5 | 140.5 | +25.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 61.0 | 84.0 | 145.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.3 | 73.5 | 149.8 | +2.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 72.2 | 143.8 | -0.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 71.1 | 79.2 | 150.3 | -8.1 | 30% |
| vs Similar (13) | 73.8 | 74.8 | 148.7 | -1.0 | 54% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 73.2 | 67.2 | 140.3 | +6.0 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.5 | 33.0 | 64.5 | -1.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 32.9 | 29.4 | 62.3 | +3.5 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 30.4 | 35.8 | 66.2 | -5.5 | 41% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 29.4 | 36.0 | 65.4 | -6.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.6 | 34.8 | 66.4 | -3.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 29.0 | 42.5 | 71.5 | -13.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 31.1 | 33.7 | 64.8 | -2.5 | 53% | - |
| vs Weaker (10) | 30.9 | 29.6 | 60.5 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.0 | 33.5 | 66.5 | -0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 32.1 | 30.2 | 62.3 | +1.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 33.8 | 36.4 | 70.2 | -2.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.6 | 35.9 | 72.5 | +0.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.2 | 36.6 | 70.8 | -2.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 32.7 | 37.8 | 70.5 | -5.1 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 32.3 | 33.5 | 65.8 | -1.2 | 54% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 32.8 | 30.0 | 62.8 | +2.8 | 83% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/12/25 | Southern Miss v Grambling St. | 68-60 |
| 14/11/25 | Grambling St. v Southern Miss | 75-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Texas | 62-93 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Northern Illinois | 89-87 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Jackson State | 65-68 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 77-52 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Alabama State | 65-63 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 63-77 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Florida A&M | 59-66 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Bethune-Cookman | 71-76 |
| 24/02/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 83-62 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Southern Univ. | 73-87 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Texas State | 65-85 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Jackson State | 84-80 OT |
| 07/11/26 | A | Iowa State | 57-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Tougaloo | 82-35 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Troy | 70-78 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Appalachian State | 86-73 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Texas State | 81-77 |
| 05/03/26 | H | James Madison | 86-80 |
| 28/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 68-55 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Arkansas State | 84-89 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WL | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.5 | 89.0 | 62.0 |
| Allowed / game | 90.0 | 87.0 | 93.0 |
| Point differential | -14.5 | +2.0 | -31.0 |
| Avg total | 165.5 | 176.0 | 155.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.0 | 83.0 | 61.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.8 | 57.5 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | +1.2 | +25.5 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 142.8 | 140.5 | 145.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 67.8 | +13.5 |
| 2 | Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 3 |  Prairie View A&M | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 82.0 | -6.6 |
| 4 |  Jackson State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.4 | 83.0 | -14.6 |
| 5 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Texas Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.5 | 93.0 | -16.5 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 63.0 | 85.5 | -22.5 |
| 10 |  Alcorn State | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 66.8 | 90.0 | -23.2 |
| 11 |  Southern Univ. | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.4 | 88.2 | -27.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 52.8 | 98.8 | -46.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 62.8 | +27.0 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 58.4 | +18.6 |
| 3 |  Appalachian State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.0 | 60.2 | +8.8 |
| 4 | Southern Miss | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.0 | 70.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 |  Coastal Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 |
| 6 |  South Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.0 | 78.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 8 |  James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 9 |  Arkansas State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.0 | 84.3 | -10.3 |
| 10 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 11 |  Marshall | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.2 | 76.0 | +2.2 |
| 12 |  Georgia Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 82.8 | -5.0 |
| 13 |  Troy | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.0 | 78.0 | -12.0 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 79.6 | 87.6 | -8.0 |
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