Texas State hosts Southern Miss on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Texas State the favourite with an 84% chance of winning, driven by their perfect 3-0 record, 91.3 points scored per game and 62.0 points allowed per game, placing them 26th in the league, while Southern Miss sits 169th with a 2-1 record, 74.3 points scored and 66.0 allowed. Texas State has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 101.0 points and conceding 60.5, and has won four of its last five games, including a 135-66 rout of Howard Payne and a 67-55 win over Texas A&M-CC; Southern Miss has a 0-1 road record, 57.0 points scored and 83.0 allowed, and has won three of its last five, with a 84-80 victory over Jackson State and a 82-35 win over Tougaloo. In the 10 meetings between the teams, Southern Miss leads 6-4, most recently beating Texas State 81-77 on 6 March 2026. Pythia projects a 78-67 score for Texas State, a total of 144.2 points, and gives the home team a 45% chance to cover the -12.5 spread and a 51% chance of the over on the 143.5 line, with a 3% likelihood of overtime. The next game will see Texas State try to extend its winning streak against a Southern Miss squad that has struggled on the road.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 91.3 | 62.0 | 153.3 | +29.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 101.0 | 60.5 | 161.5 | +40.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 72.0 | 65.0 | 137.0 | +7.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.1 | 68.0 | 148.1 | +12.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.2 | 64.8 | 147.0 | +17.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (18) | 72.4 | 75.7 | 148.2 | -3.3 | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 78.8 | 61.8 | 140.5 | +17.0 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 74.3 | 66.0 | 140.3 | +8.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 83.0 | 57.5 | 140.5 | +25.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 57.0 | 83.0 | 140.0 | -26.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 73.1 | 151.5 | +5.3 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.8 | 69.8 | 145.6 | +6.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 71.0 | 79.5 | 150.5 | -8.5 | 30% |
| vs Similar (13) | 73.8 | 74.8 | 148.7 | -1.0 | 54% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 73.2 | 67.2 | 140.3 | +6.0 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 68.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.6 | 33.2 | 67.8 | +1.4 | 50% | 40% |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 36.7 | 31.2 | 67.9 | +5.4 | 67% | 39% |
| Last 30 away (12) | 31.5 | 36.2 | 67.8 | -4.8 | 25% | 42% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.1 | 31.8 | 68.9 | +5.3 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.2 | 30.8 | 70.0 | +8.4 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (18) | 32.3 | 35.6 | 67.9 | -3.3 | 22% | 39% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 38.0 | 29.7 | 67.7 | +8.3 | 92% | 42% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 68.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.9 | 33.2 | 66.1 | -0.3 | 50% | 40% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 32.1 | 30.2 | 62.3 | +1.9 | 50% | 29% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 33.6 | 35.8 | 69.4 | -2.2 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.9 | 36.2 | 73.1 | +0.7 | 50% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 33.4 | 69.0 | +2.2 | 40% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 32.4 | 36.8 | 69.2 | -4.4 | 20% | 50% |
| vs Similar (13) | 32.3 | 33.5 | 65.8 | -1.2 | 54% | 38% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 32.8 | 30.0 | 62.8 | +2.8 | 83% | 33% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss +19.5 | 77.2% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +4.9pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 96.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +4.6pp | Won |
| Texas State (regulation) | 81.6% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +19 | 76.6% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +4.2pp | Lost |
| Texas State under 94.5 | 95.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +20 | 79.2% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Push |
| Texas State over 71.5 | 73.2% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +20.5 | 79.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| Texas State +8.5 | 94.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Texas State under 96.5 | 97.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Texas State over 69.5 | 79.4% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Won |
| Texas State under 83.5 | 72.2% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Lost |
| Texas State under 92.5 | 93.2% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Texas State -4 | 75.4% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Texas State -3 | 78.2% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 52.5 | 91.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 51.5 | 93.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +1.9pp | Won |
| Texas State -5 | 72.2% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +1.7pp | Won |
| Texas State -3.5 | 76.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +1.7pp | Won |
| Texas State over 70.5 | 76.4% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +1.7pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 60.5 | 72.0% | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +1.6pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +21.5 | 82.0% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| Texas State under 90.5 | 90.2% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| Texas State -4.5 | 73.1% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 53.5 | 90.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Texas State -2.5 | 78.7% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +0.9pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 56.5 | 83.7% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +0.6pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 54.5 | 88.1% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +0.6pp | Won |
| Over 122.5 | 90.8% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +0.6pp | Won |
| Over 135 | 71.5% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 58.5 | 78.3% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Texas State win | 83.6% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.13 | +0.5pp | Won |
| Texas State +3.5 | 88.8% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Texas State -1.5 | 81.8% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +0.3pp | Won |
| Texas State under 88.5 | 86.2% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +0.1pp | Won |
| Texas State under 87.5 | 83.9% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +0.1pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +18.5 | 74.5% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.23 | - | - | - | +0.0pp | Lost |
| Southern Miss under 80.5 | 91.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -0.0pp | Won |
| Over 132.5 | 76.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -0.1pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 92.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -0.1pp | Won |
| Texas State under 86.5 | 81.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -0.1pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +17.5 | 71.6% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.27 | - | - | - | -0.2pp | Lost |
| Over 134.5 | 72.1% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | -0.3pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 57.5 | 81.1% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -0.3pp | Won |
| Southern Miss over 55.5 | 86.0% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -0.6pp | Won |
| Texas State under 84.5 | 75.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -0.7pp | Lost |
| Southern Miss over 59.5 | 75.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -0.9pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +18 | 73.7% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | -1.0pp | Lost |
| Over 127.5 | 84.6% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -1.5pp | Won |
| Southern Miss under 78.5 | 87.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -1.6pp | Won |
| Southern Miss +17 | 70.7% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | -1.6pp | Lost |
| Under 162.5 | 86.9% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -2.5pp | Won |
| Southern Miss under 76.5 | 83.6% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -3.1pp | Won |
| Southern Miss under 72.5 | 72.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -3.7pp | Won |
| Southern Miss under 74.5 | 78.5% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | -3.8pp | Won |
| Southern Miss under 75.5 | 81.1% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -3.9pp | Won |
| Under 157.5 | 79.4% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -5.0pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | Texas State v Southern Miss | 77-81 |
| 17/01/26 | Texas State v Southern Miss | 74-67 |
| 09/01/26 | Southern Miss v Texas State | 80-70 OT |
| 18/01/25 | Texas State v Southern Miss | 85-82 OT |
| 11/01/25 | Southern Miss v Texas State | 92-88 OT |
| 07/03/24 | Southern Miss v Texas State | 59-75 |
| 17/02/24 | Southern Miss v Texas State | 78-74 |
| 03/02/24 | Texas State v Southern Miss | 60-55 |
| 25/02/23 | Texas State v Southern Miss | 69-79 |
| 28/01/23 | Southern Miss v Texas State | 67-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | UTRGV | 72-65 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Howard Payne | 135-66 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Texas A&M-CC | 67-55 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Southern Miss | 77-81 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Appalachian State | 60-57 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Louisiana Lafayette | 54-67 |
| 20/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 90-82 OT |
| 14/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 95-84 |
| 12/02/26 | H | Troy | 74-62 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Western Michigan | 77-61 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Jackson State | 84-80 OT |
| 07/11/26 | A | Iowa State | 57-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Tougaloo | 82-35 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Troy | 70-78 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Appalachian State | 86-73 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Texas State | 81-77 |
| 05/03/26 | H | James Madison | 86-80 |
| 28/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 68-55 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Arkansas State | 84-89 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Old Dominion | 86-81 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 91.3 | 101.0 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 62.0 | 60.5 | 65.0 |
| Point differential | +29.3 | +40.5 | +7.0 |
| Avg total | 153.3 | 161.5 | 137.0 |
| Over 143 | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 74.3 | 83.0 | 57.0 |
| Allowed / game | 66.0 | 57.5 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | +8.3 | +25.5 | -26.0 |
| Avg total | 140.3 | 140.5 | 140.0 |
| Over 143 | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.3 | 62.0 | +29.3 | |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.2 | 54.5 | +21.8 | |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.3 | 66.0 | +8.3 | |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.0 | 60.2 | +8.8 | |
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.0 | 78.5 | -1.5 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 76.7 | +4.0 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.3 | 82.3 | -2.0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.0 | 84.3 | -10.3 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 86.5 | -2.5 | |
| 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.0 | 78.0 | -12.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 41 | 85 | |
| 37 | 28 | 65 |
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the operation of our website.
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to build a profile of you.
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they will not be adjusted to your interests.