Helios Domzale vs Rogaska Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 16:30

Projected 80-77

Projected total 157.1

Final 73-74

22-13 10-29 15-17 26-15

Position#9

Record1-6

FormLLLLW

Points / game71.6

Allowed / game80.6

Helios Domzale

61%

39%

■ HDO 61%■ ROGA 39%

Pythia win probability

Rogaska 🏆

Position#6

Record3-4

FormLWLWW

Points / game67.6

Allowed / game79.1

Liga Nova KBMRound 8· Sportna dvorana Domzale

Other2026-27

Meetings · Helios Domzale v Rogaska

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Helios Domzale host Rogaska on 14 November 2026 in the Liga Nova KBM, with the model favouring the home side at 61% to 39% and projecting a close 80-77 win for Helios Domzale. Helios Domzale have gone 1-6 in all seven games this season, scoring 71.6 points per game and allowing 80.6, while on home turf they are 1-2, averaging 77.0 points and conceding 75.3; their last five games include a 99-77 victory over Tajfun Sentjur at home on 7 November, a 73-79 loss to Perspektiva Ilirija away on 28 October, and a 73-75 defeat to Zlatorog Lasko at home on 24 October. Rogaska are 3-4 overall, with 67.6 points scored and 79.1 allowed, and 2-1 on the road, averaging 64.0 points and 73.0 allowed; their last five games feature wins over Perspektiva Ilirija (77-66) and Zlatorog Lasko (69-60) and a 62-97 loss to KK Krka Novo mesto at home. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Helios Domzale have won seven to Rogaska's three, though Rogaska last defeated them 97-79 on 30 April 2026. The spread of -1.0 gives Helios Domzale a 60% chance to cover, while the over at 153.0 has a 59% probability, and there is a 5% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Helios Domzale winLost

61.3%fair 1.63

Best odds1.83

Implied51.2%

Edge+10.1pp

Rogaska winWon

38.7%fair 2.59

Best odds2.00

Implied48.8%

Edge-10.1pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Helios Domzale Slovenia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormDomzale

Date

Competition

Sencur

70-76

-6

52avg 71

H04/05

Liga Nova KBM

Sencur

65-75

-10

56avg 71

A09/05

Liga Nova KBM

Sencur

75-82

-7

70avg 71

H12/05

Liga Nova KBM

Polzela

59-74

-15

41avg 71

H26/09

Liga Nova KBM

Gorica

69-88

-19

56avg 71

A03/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Triglav Kranj

60-79

-19

47avg 71

A09/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Krka Novo mesto

68-92

-24

55avg 71

A14/10

Liga Nova KBM

Zlatorog Lasko

73-75

-2

64avg 71

H24/10

Liga Nova KBM

Perspektiva Ilirija

73-79

-6

61avg 71

A28/10

Liga Nova KBM

Tajfun Sentjur

#10

99-77

+22

no box

H07/11

Liga Nova KBM

24-28

14-18

18-14

14-16

19-19

16-12

16-26

14-18

21-18

19-21

19-24

16-19

20-20

21-24

12-17

6-13

18-19

20-22

15-24

16-23

15-16

21-25

7-22

17-16

14-15

16-23

15-30

23-24

25-26

17-13

7-22

24-14

25-19

20-23

13-26

15-11

32-19

21-18

29-24

17-16

150.8Avg total

71.1Scored

79.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	71.6	80.6	152.1	-9.0	14%
Season at home (3)	77.0	75.3	152.3	+1.7	33%
Season away (4)	67.5	84.5	152.0	-17.0	0%
Last 10 (10)	71.1	79.7	150.8	-8.6	10%
Last 5 (5)	74.6	80.4	155.0	-5.8	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	72.6	86.9	159.5	-14.2	0%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	78.7	79.4	158.1	-0.7	43%
vs Weaker (9)	85.9	82.1	168.0	+3.8	67%

This opponent (Rogaska) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Rogaska

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormRogaska

Date

Competition

KK Krka Novo mesto

75-92

-17

70avg 71

A21/04

Liga Nova KBM

Helios Domzale

97-79

+18

100avg 71

H30/04

Liga Nova KBM

Zlatorog Lasko

76-80

-4

75avg 71

A04/05

Liga Nova KBM

Sencur

75-92

-17

63avg 71

H26/09

Liga Nova KBM

Polzela

49-87

-38

32avg 71

A03/10

Liga Nova KBM

Gorica

67-80

-13

59avg 71

H10/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Triglav Kranj

74-72

64avg 71

A16/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Krka Novo mesto

62-97

-35

46avg 71

H20/10

Liga Nova KBM

Zlatorog Lasko

69-60

68avg 71

A31/10

Liga Nova KBM

Perspektiva Ilirija

77-66

+11

no box

H04/11

Liga Nova KBM

12-15

19-29

21-27

23-21

27-19

21-26

27-20

22-14

24-15

23-29

12-14

17-22

20-27

29-26

24-21

2-18

13-25

4-23

19-22

13-17

21-25

21-6

11-20

14-29

19-13

22-21

17-18

16-20

14-27

24-16

16-26

8-28

23-28

20-9

12-10

14-13

20-20

14-9

21-20

22-17

152.6Avg total

72.1Scored

80.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	67.6	79.1	146.7	-11.6	43%
Season at home (4)	70.2	83.8	154.0	-13.5	25%
Season away (3)	64.0	73.0	137.0	-9.0	67%
Last 10 (10)	72.1	80.5	152.6	-8.4	40%
Last 5 (5)	69.8	75.0	144.8	-5.2	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	72.2	85.9	158.1	-13.7	24%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	84.4	84.3	168.7	+0.1	57%
vs Weaker (6)	88.3	81.3	169.7	+7.0	67%

This opponent (Helios Domzale) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 147Push

Over 147

72.8%

Under 147

27.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 152.25 · main lineActual: Under 152.25

Over 152.25

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under 152.25

no forecast

@ 1.82

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.80

Under

1xBet

1.82

Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157

Over 157

49.3%

@ 2.10+5.2pp

Under 157

50.7%

@ 1.66-5.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.10

Under

Bet365

1.66

Marathon Be

1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Helios Domzale total 73.5Actual: Helios Domzale under 73.5

Over 73.5

74.1%

@ 1.47+12.4pp

Under 73.5

25.9%

@ 2.47-12.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.43

Under

Betano

2.47

1xBet

2.22

Helios Domzale total 77.5 · main lineActual: Helios Domzale under 77.5

Over 77.5

60.1%

@ 1.91+11.6pp

Under 77.5

39.9%

@ 1.83-11.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.91

Betano

1.90

Marathon Be

1.87

1xBet

1.83

Bet365

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.78

Marathon Be

1.77

1xBet

1.63

Helios Domzale total 81.5Actual: Helios Domzale under 81.5

Over 81.5

44.6%

@ 2.65+10.3pp

Under 81.5

55.4%

@ 1.40-10.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.65

1xBet

2.58

Under

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.34

Rogaska total 71.5Actual: Rogaska over 71.5

Over 71.5

69.6%

@ 1.47+6.6pp

Under 71.5

30.4%

@ 2.43-6.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.37

Under

1xBet

2.43

Betano

2.42

Rogaska total 75.5 · main lineActual: Rogaska under 75.5

Over 75.5

54.9%

@ 1.82+4.4pp

Under 75.5

45.1%

@ 1.95-4.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.82

Betano

1.72

1xBet

1.70

Under

Betano

1.95

Marathon Be

1.84

1xBet

1.74

Rogaska total 79.5Actual: Rogaska under 79.5

Over 79.5

39.7%

@ 2.37+1.7pp

Under 79.5

60.3%

@ 1.50-1.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.37

1xBet

2.35

Under

Betano

1.50

1xBet

1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Helios Domzale -4.5Actual: Rogaska +4.5

HDO -4.5

46.9%

@ 2.45+7.4pp

ROGA +4.5

53.1%

@ 1.54-7.4pp

Best 5 market prices

HDO

Bet365

2.45

Pinnacle

2.35

Betano

2.32

1xBet

2.26

ROGA

Marathon Be

1.54

Pinnacle

1.53

Betano

1.52

Bet365

1.52

1xBet

1.46

Spread Helios Domzale -1.5 · main lineActual: Rogaska +1.5

HDO -1.5

58.5%

@ 1.87+8.1pp

ROGA +1.5

41.5%

@ 1.93-8.1pp

Best 5 market prices

HDO

Betano

1.87

Bet365

1.86

Pinnacle

1.85

1xBet

1.84

Marathon Be

1.84

ROGA

SBO

1.93

Pinnacle

1.88

BetVictor

1.88

Betfair

1.83

1xBet

1.83

Spread Helios Domzale +1.5Actual: Helios Domzale +1.5

HDO +1.5

64.0%

@ 1.73+8.8pp

ROGA -1.5

36.0%

@ 2.07-8.8pp

Best 5 market prices

HDO

Betfair

1.73

SBO

1.73

Pinnacle

1.68

Bet365

1.68

Betano

1.65

ROGA

Pinnacle

2.07

Marathon Be

2.07

1xBet

2.06

Betano

2.05

Bet365

2.05

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Helios DomzaleRogaska

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38.75
Last 30 (30)	20.4	20.1	40.6	+0.3	40%	60%
Last 30 at home (14)	21.4	20.4	41.9	+1.0	50%	71%
Last 30 away (16)	19.6	19.9	39.4	-0.3	31%	50%
Last 10 (10)	21.3	19.9	41.2	+1.4	30%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	19.0	41.2	+3.2	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	18.5	21.7	40.2	-3.2	14%	57%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	23.6	19.4	43.0	+4.1	57%	71%
vs Weaker (9)	21.0	18.2	39.2	+2.8	67%	56%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38.75
Last 30 (30)	17.1	23.0	40.1	-5.9	13%	70%
Last 30 at home (14)	18.8	23.7	42.5	-4.9	14%	86%
Last 30 away (16)	15.7	22.4	38.1	-6.7	12%	56%
Last 10 (10)	19.3	21.4	40.7	-2.1	30%	70%
Last 5 (5)	19.4	22.6	42.0	-3.2	20%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	15.3	22.6	37.9	-7.4	6%	53%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	19.3	23.1	42.4	-3.9	29%	86%
vs Weaker (6)	19.8	23.8	43.7	-4.0	17%	100%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	20.7	22.1	42.7	-1.4	33%	83%
Last 30 at home (14)	20.4	20.3	40.6	+0.1	50%	79%
Last 30 away (16)	20.9	23.6	44.6	-2.7	19%	88%
Last 10 (10)	18.5	19.9	38.4	-1.4	30%	70%
Last 5 (5)	19.0	20.4	39.4	-1.4	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	19.4	22.9	42.3	-3.6	14%	71%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	21.7	20.7	42.4	+1.0	57%	86%
vs Weaker (9)	21.9	21.8	43.7	+0.1	44%	100%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	21.1	21.0	42.1	+0.1	43%	70%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.2	18.5	40.7	+3.7	64%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	20.1	23.2	43.4	-3.1	25%	75%
Last 10 (10)	19.7	19.4	39.1	+0.3	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	12.2	32.4	+8.0	100%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	20.2	21.7	41.9	-1.5	41%	71%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	20.4	20.0	40.4	+0.4	29%	71%
vs Weaker (6)	24.5	20.3	44.8	+4.2	67%	67%

Helios DomzaleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Sencur

38-46

-8

H04/05

Liga Nova KBM

Sencur

35-31

A09/05

Liga Nova KBM

Sencur

40-39

H12/05

Liga Nova KBM

Polzela

41-44

-3

H26/09

Liga Nova KBM

Gorica

38-41

-3

A03/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Triglav Kranj

36-41

-5

A09/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Krka Novo mesto

30-38

-8

A14/10

Liga Nova KBM

Zlatorog Lasko

42-39

H24/10

Liga Nova KBM

Perspektiva Ilirija

45-42

A28/10

Liga Nova KBM

Tajfun Sentjur

#10

53-37

+16

H07/11

Liga Nova KBM

79.6Avg total

39.8Scored

39.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)	41.1	42.2	83.3	-1.1	47%	87%
Last 30 at home (14)	41.8	40.7	82.5	+1.1	57%	93%
Last 30 away (16)	40.5	43.5	84.0	-3.0	38%	81%
Last 10 (10)	39.8	39.8	79.6	+0.0	50%	80%
Last 5 (5)	41.2	39.4	80.6	+1.8	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	37.9	44.6	82.5	-6.8	21%	79%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	45.3	40.1	85.4	+5.1	71%	100%
vs Weaker (9)	42.9	40.0	82.9	+2.9	67%	89%

This opponent (Rogaska) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

RogaskaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

KK Krka Novo mesto

31-44

-13

A21/04

Liga Nova KBM

Helios Domzale

48-45

H30/04

Liga Nova KBM

Zlatorog Lasko

47-44

A04/05

Liga Nova KBM

Sencur

49-53

-4

H26/09

Liga Nova KBM

Polzela

17-48

-31

A03/10

Liga Nova KBM

Gorica

42-31

+11

H10/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Triglav Kranj

41-34

A16/10

Liga Nova KBM

KK Krka Novo mesto

38-43

-5

H20/10

Liga Nova KBM

Zlatorog Lasko

43-37

A31/10

Liga Nova KBM

Perspektiva Ilirija

34-29

H04/11

Liga Nova KBM

79.8Avg total

39.0Scored

40.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)	38.2	44.0	82.3	-5.8	37%	73%
Last 30 at home (14)	41.0	42.2	83.2	-1.2	50%	71%
Last 30 away (16)	35.8	45.6	81.4	-9.8	25%	75%
Last 10 (10)	39.0	40.8	79.8	-1.8	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	39.6	34.8	74.4	+4.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	35.5	44.4	79.8	-8.9	24%	53%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	39.7	43.1	82.9	-3.4	43%	100%
vs Weaker (6)	44.3	44.2	88.5	+0.2	67%	100%

This opponent (Helios Domzale) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Rogaska win

HDO win

no forecast

@ 1.83

ROGA win

no forecast

@ 1.95

1st half Spread Helios Domzale -0.5 · main lineActual: Rogaska +0.5

HDO -0.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

ROGA +0.5

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.95

Helios Domzale 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Helios Domzale under 38.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.86

Under

no forecast

@ 1.91

Rogaska 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Rogaska over 37.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.84

Under

no forecast

@ 2.02

1st half: HDO + total 76.5

HDO & over

no forecast

@ 3.65

HDO & under

no forecast

@ 3.60

1st half: Draw + total 76.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 26.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 26.00

1st half: ROGA + total 76.5

ROGA & over

no forecast

@ 3.80

ROGA & under

no forecast

@ 3.80

1st half Over/Under 75.25Actual: Under 75.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.76

Under

no forecast

@ 1.86

1st half Spread Helios Domzale -1.5Actual: Rogaska +1.5

HDO -1.5

no forecast

@ 2.05

ROGA +1.5

no forecast

@ 1.72

1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.15

Under

no forecast

@ 1.72

1st half Spread Helios Domzale +1Actual: Rogaska -1

HDO +1

no forecast

@ 1.65

ROGA -1

no forecast

@ 2.07

1st half Spread Helios Domzale -2.5Actual: Rogaska +2.5

HDO -2.5

no forecast

@ 2.22

ROGA +2.5

no forecast

@ 1.62

1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.45

Under

no forecast

@ 2.60

1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.62

Under

no forecast

@ 1.44

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Rogaska (regulation)

HDO

no forecast

@ 1.86

Draw

no forecast

@ 16.50

ROGA

no forecast

@ 2.02

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	18.3	22.4	40.7	-4.1	30%	70%
Last 30 at home (14)	19.4	20.5	39.9	-1.1	43%	57%
Last 30 away (16)	17.4	24.0	41.4	-6.6	19%	81%
Last 10 (10)	15.1	22.9	38.0	-7.8	20%	60%
Last 5 (5)	14.2	24.8	39.0	-10.6	20%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	18.2	22.4	40.6	-4.2	29%	79%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	15.7	23.1	38.9	-7.4	14%	43%
vs Weaker (9)	20.4	21.7	42.1	-1.2	44%	78%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	20.5	20.0	40.5	+0.5	43%	63%
Last 30 at home (14)	20.8	19.9	40.7	+0.9	50%	71%
Last 30 away (16)	20.2	20.1	40.3	+0.2	38%	56%
Last 10 (10)	18.0	19.8	37.8	-1.8	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	15.4	18.8	34.2	-3.4	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	19.8	20.5	40.3	-0.6	35%	59%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	21.7	22.1	43.9	-0.4	43%	86%
vs Weaker (6)	21.0	16.2	37.2	+4.8	67%	50%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	18.2	18.9	37.1	-0.7	50%	43%
Last 30 at home (14)	18.1	18.6	36.8	-0.5	50%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	18.2	19.1	37.4	-0.9	50%	44%
Last 10 (10)	16.2	17.0	33.2	-0.8	40%	20%
Last 5 (5)	19.2	16.2	35.4	+3.0	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	16.6	19.8	36.4	-3.2	21%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	17.7	16.1	33.9	+1.6	71%	0%
vs Weaker (9)	21.1	19.7	40.8	+1.4	78%	67%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 38
Last 30 (30)	18.7	19.7	38.4	-0.9	53%	43%
Last 30 at home (14)	17.4	21.2	38.6	-3.8	43%	50%
Last 30 away (16)	19.9	18.3	38.2	+1.6	62%	38%
Last 10 (10)	15.1	19.9	35.0	-4.8	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	14.8	21.4	36.2	-6.6	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	16.9	21.1	37.9	-4.2	41%	41%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	19.6	15.1	34.7	+4.4	71%	14%
vs Weaker (6)	23.0	21.0	44.0	+2.0	67%	83%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 75.5
Last 30 (30)	36.5	41.3	77.8	-4.8	33%	63%
Last 30 at home (14)	37.5	39.1	76.6	-1.6	43%	57%
Last 30 away (16)	35.6	43.1	78.8	-7.5	25%	69%
Last 10 (10)	31.3	39.9	71.2	-8.6	20%	40%
Last 5 (5)	33.4	41.0	74.4	-7.6	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	34.8	42.2	77.0	-7.4	21%	64%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	33.4	39.3	72.7	-5.9	14%	29%
vs Weaker (9)	41.6	41.3	82.9	+0.2	67%	89%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 75.5
Last 30 (30)	39.2	39.7	78.9	-0.4	43%	67%
Last 30 at home (14)	38.2	41.1	79.4	-2.9	43%	79%
Last 30 away (16)	40.1	38.4	78.5	+1.8	44%	56%
Last 10 (10)	33.1	39.7	72.8	-6.6	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	30.2	40.2	70.4	-10.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)	36.7	41.5	78.2	-4.8	24%	59%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	41.3	37.3	78.6	+4.0	71%	86%
vs Weaker (6)	44.0	37.2	81.2	+6.8	67%	67%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

HDO win + total 153.5

🔒 Pro

ROGA win + total 153.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: HDO leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: ROGA leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (HDO:ROGA): HDO wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Helios Domzale over 71.5	80.0%	1.31	1xBet 1.31	-	-	-	-	+12.7pp	Won
Helios Domzale over 73.5	74.1%	1.45	Betano 1.47	1xBet 1.43	-	-	-	+12.4pp	Lost
Helios Domzale over 72.5	77.2%	1.39	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.38	1xBet 1.37	-	-	+12.3pp	Won
Helios Domzale over 74.5	70.9%	1.53	Betano 1.55	Bet365 1.52	1xBet 1.51	-	-	+11.7pp	Lost
Helios Domzale +3.5	70.8%	1.48	Pinnacle 1.53	Betano 1.50	Marathon Bet 1.50	1xBet 1.38	-	+11.4pp	Won
Helios Domzale +9.5	86.2%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Won
Helios Domzale +7.5	82.0%	1.26	Betano 1.26	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Won
Helios Domzale +4.5	74.0%	1.40	Bet365 1.45	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.32	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Helios Domzale +6.5	79.6%	1.31	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Helios Domzale over 70.5	82.6%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Helios Domzale +5.5	76.9%	1.33	Betano 1.36	1xBet 1.29	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Helios Domzale over 67.5	89.1%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Helios Domzale over 68.5	87.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Won
Over 147.5	71.3%	1.45	Betano 1.45	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Lost
Over 146.5	73.4%	1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Helios Domzale +14.5	93.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
Helios Domzale over 66.5	90.8%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Won
Helios Domzale +19.5	96.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.6pp	Won
Helios Domzale +24.5	98.7%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Over 139.5	85.4%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Over 144.5	77.2%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Over 129.5	95.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Rogaska under 92.5	93.1%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
Rogaska +9.5	70.8%	1.37	Betano 1.37	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Won
Over 134.5	91.4%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Overtime: no	94.8%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Rogaska +20.5	92.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Won
Rogaska over 62.5	91.9%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Won
Rogaska under 86.5	82.3%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Rogaska over 70.5	73.0%	1.30	1xBet 1.31	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Rogaska under 87.5	84.6%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+3.1pp	Won
Rogaska under 90.5	90.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+3.1pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 96.5	94.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Rogaska under 88.5	86.7%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Rogaska over 66.5	84.2%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Rogaska under 84.5	76.9%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
Rogaska over 64.5	88.5%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Rogaska over 67.5	81.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 94.5	91.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+1.7pp	Won
Under 179.5	90.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Rogaska over 68.5	79.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Rogaska +10.5	73.8%	1.27	Betano 1.33	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Rogaska under 82.5	70.8%	1.29	Bet365 1.35	1xBet 1.24	-	-	-	+1.0pp	Won
Rogaska +15.5	85.7%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 92.5	88.6%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	-0.1pp	Won
Under 174.5	85.4%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	-1.3pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 90.5	84.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-1.7pp	Won
Under 169.5	77.7%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 88.5	79.3%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	-3.0pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 87.5	76.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-3.1pp	Won
Helios Domzale under 86.5	73.3%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-4.4pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Helios Domzaletheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Helios Domzale: 68.9 points a game scored

🏀🏀48%

🏀🏀🏀33%

🏀18%

🏀🏀 2-pointers33.4 pts a game · 48% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 33% of the points

🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 18% of the points

League average for comparison: 75.2 points a game

52%

29%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.3	16.7	48.7%	53.4%	33.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.7	7.6	28.5%	30.3%	22.8
🏀 Free throws	18.4	12.7	69.0%	70.0%	12.7

They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Rogaskatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Rogaska: 74.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀53%

🏀🏀🏀28%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 53% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 28% of the points

🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 75.2 points a game

52%

29%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.2	19.6	52.7%	53.4%	39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.0	6.9	27.6%	30.3%	20.7
🏀 Free throws	21.4	14.6	68.2%	70.0%	14.6

They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.2	20.2	52.9%	53.4%	40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.1	6.7	29.0%	30.3%	20.1
🏀 Free throws	26.6	18.9	71.1%	70.0%	18.9

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.6	22.0	57.0%	53.4%	44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.7	8.7	32.6%	30.3%	26.1
🏀 Free throws	18.8	12.8	68.1%	70.0%	12.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.6	19.1	53.6%	53.4%	38.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	7.6	29.9%	30.3%	22.8
🏀 Free throws	21.7	17.0	78.2%	70.0%	17.0

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.9	20.7	53.3%	53.4%	41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.6	7.6	31.0%	30.3%	22.9
🏀 Free throws	21.6	14.8	68.4%	70.0%	14.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.1	22.6	56.3%	53.4%	45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.8	7.2	30.3%	30.3%	21.6
🏀 Free throws	23.1	16.6	72.0%	70.0%	16.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.8	19.8	53.8%	53.4%	39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.9	9.6	34.3%	30.3%	28.7
🏀 Free throws	21.7	15.5	71.3%	70.0%	15.5

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Helios Domzale

WLLLLLLLLL

Rogaska

WWLWLLLLWL

League position

-12.2

Net rating

-9.7

80.0

Offensive rating

86.3

92.2

Defensive rating

96.0

46.1%

Effective FG%

48.2%

49.3%

Opp. effective FG%

53.7%

18.0%

Turnover %

17.2%

0.30

Free-throw rate

0.34

28.5%

3-point %

27.6%

55.1%

Assist %

71.3%

10%

Form (last 10/10)

40%

Profile

■ Helios Domzale ■ Rogaska

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Helios Domzale wins

Rogaska wins

Date	Game	Score
30/04/26	Rogaska v Helios Domzale	97-79
02/02/26	Helios Domzale v Rogaska	81-82
08/11/25	Rogaska v Helios Domzale	81-84
08/02/25	Helios Domzale v Rogaska	79-63
30/11/24	Rogaska v Helios Domzale	81-90
20/04/24	Helios Domzale v Rogaska	99-69
12/01/24	Rogaska v Helios Domzale	87-99
06/11/23	Helios Domzale v Rogaska	74-80
14/05/23	Rogaska v Helios Domzale	56-94
11/05/23	Helios Domzale v Rogaska	89-71

Helios Domzalelast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
07/11/26	H	Tajfun Sentjur	99-77
28/10/26	A	Perspektiva Ilirija	73-79
24/10/26	H	Zlatorog Lasko	73-75
14/10/26	A	KK Krka Novo mesto	68-92
09/10/26	A	KK Triglav Kranj	60-79
03/10/26	A	Gorica	69-88
26/09/26	H	Polzela	59-74
12/05/26	H	Sencur	75-82
09/05/26	A	Sencur	65-75
04/05/26	H	Sencur	70-76

Rogaskalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	H	Perspektiva Ilirija	77-66
31/10/26	A	Zlatorog Lasko	69-60
20/10/26	H	KK Krka Novo mesto	62-97
16/10/26	A	KK Triglav Kranj	74-72
10/10/26	H	Gorica	67-80
03/10/26	A	Polzela	49-87
26/09/26	H	Sencur	75-92
04/05/26	A	Zlatorog Lasko	76-80
30/04/26	H	Helios Domzale	97-79
21/04/26	A	KK Krka Novo mesto	75-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Helios Domzale

Liga Nova KBM 2026-27

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLW	14%
Home	LLW	33%
Away	LLLL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	3	4
Win %	14%	33%	0%
Points / game	71.6	77.0	67.5
Allowed / game	80.6	75.3	84.5
Point differential	-9.0	+1.7	-17.0
Avg total	152.1	152.3	152.0
Over 152.25	43%	33%	50%
Win by 10+	14%	33%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	0% (1)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Rogaska

Liga Nova KBM 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLWW	43%
Home	LLLW	25%
Away	LWW	67%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	4	3
Win %	43%	25%	67%
Points / game	67.6	70.2	64.0
Allowed / game	79.1	83.8	73.0
Point differential	-11.6	-13.5	-9.0
Avg total	146.7	154.0	137.0
Over 152.25	29%	50%	0%
Win by 10+	14%	25%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	KK Krka Novo mesto	8	8	0	100%	90.4	68.8	+21.6
2	Polzela	8	6	2	75%	83.8	72.2	+11.5
3	Perspektiva Ilirija	8	6	2	75%	84.0	73.6	+10.4
4	Sencur	7	5	2	71%	85.9	79.6	+6.3
5	Gorica	8	4	4	50%	75.8	77.4	-1.6
6	Rogaska	7	3	4	43%	67.6	79.1	-11.6
7	Zlatorog Lasko	8	3	5	38%	68.5	77.5	-9.0
8	KK Triglav Kranj	6	1	5	17%	76.8	82.5	-5.7
9	Helios Domzale	7	1	6	14%	71.6	80.6	-9.0
10	Tajfun Sentjur	7	0	7	0%	68.4	86.9	-18.4

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Helios Domzale	22	10	15	26	73
Rogaska	13	29	17	15	74

← all games of the day

Helios Domzale vs Rogaska Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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