Howard faces Stetson on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Howard the clear favourite, assigning a 96% chance of victory largely because the Bears have a 1-2 record with an average of 73.7 points scored and 77.7 points allowed, while Stetson is 0-3 with 60.0 points scored and 85.7 allowed; Howard's 1-2 record places them 281st in the league, whereas Stetson sits 392nd. Howard's three games have yielded 73.7 points per game and they have won 2 of their last five, including a 94-83 win over Alcorn State, but they also lost 65-78 to Penn and 62-72 to Yale; Stetson's three road games have produced 60.0 points per game and they have won only one of five, with losses to West Virginia, South Carolina and Clemson. The teams have met once before, with Stetson winning 64-60 in 2025. Pythia projects a 87-67 score, 154.3 total points, a 96% home win probability and a 4% away win probability, with Howard covering the -10.5 line 80% of the time and the over on the 152.5 line 54% of the time, while the chance of overtime is 1%. Howard's recent 94-83 victory over Alcorn State shows they can still pull out big wins.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Howard winWon
95.4%fair 1.05
Best odds1.18
Implied82.1%
Edge+13.3pp
Stetson winLost
4.6%fair 21.79
Best odds5.50
Implied17.9%
Edge-13.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Howard) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145Actual: Under 145
Over 145
71.4%
@ 1.33+1.4pp
Under 145
28.6%
@ 3.10-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.10
Over/Under 150 · main lineActual: Under 150
Over 150
59.7%
@ 1.92+10.0pp
Under 150
40.3%
@ 2.15-10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 155Actual: Under 155
Over 155
47.1%
@ 2.15+4.1pp
Under 155
52.9%
@ 1.62-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.62
📊 3. Team Totals
Howard total 75.5Actual: Howard under 75.5
Over 75.5
87.5%
@ 1.33+19.6pp
Under 75.5
12.5%
@ 2.82-19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.82
Howard total 79.5 · main lineActual: Howard under 79.5
Over 79.5
77.3%
@ 1.88+27.3pp
Under 79.5
22.7%
@ 2.00-27.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.88
Howard total 83.5Actual: Howard under 83.5
Over 83.5
63.4%
@ 2.37+25.2pp
Under 83.5
36.6%
@ 1.47-25.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.47
Stetson total 67Actual: Stetson under 67
Over 67
49.9%
Under 67
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stetson total 71 · main lineActual: Stetson under 71
Over 71
33.7%
@ 1.86-16.1pp
Under 71
66.3%
@ 1.85+16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Stetson total 75Actual: Stetson under 75
Over 75
20.3%
Under 75
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Howard -13.5Actual: Stetson +13.5
HOWA -13.5
71.2%
@ 2.35+31.8pp
STET +13.5
28.8%
@ 1.54-31.8pp
Best 5 market prices
HOWA
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
STET
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
Spread Howard -10.5 · main lineActual: Howard -10.5
HOWA -10.5
79.5%
@ 1.94+29.9pp
STET +10.5
20.5%
@ 1.91-29.9pp
Best 5 market prices
HOWA
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
STET
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Howard -7.5Actual: Howard -7.5
HOWA -7.5
86.1%
@ 1.55+26.3pp
STET +7.5
13.9%
@ 2.35-26.3pp
Best 5 market prices
HOWA
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
STET
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
HowardStetson
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Howard) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Howard win
HOWA win
no forecast
@ 1.40
STET win
no forecast
@ 2.95
2nd half Spread Howard -4.5 · main lineActual: Howard -4.5
HOWA -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
STET +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Howard (regulation)
HOWA
no forecast
@ 1.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
STET
no forecast
@ 3.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Howard -12
76.3%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Won
Howard -12.5
74.2%
2.22
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+33.3pp
Won
Howard -14
70.3%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Howard -13
73.4%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+32.3pp
Push
Howard -11.5
76.9%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+32.1pp
Won
Howard -11
79.0%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.04
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
+31.9pp
Won
Howard -13.5
71.2%
2.35
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+31.8pp
Lost
Howard -10.5
79.5%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
+29.9pp
Won
Howard -10
81.4%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
SBO
1.78
-
+29.4pp
Won
Howard -9.5
81.9%
1.75
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.71
-
+27.5pp
Won
Howard -9
83.7%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Won
Howard over 79.5
77.3%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Lost
Howard -8
85.8%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Won
Howard over 80.5
74.1%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+26.9pp
Lost
Howard -7.5
86.1%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Won
Howard over 81.5
70.8%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+26.1pp
Lost
Howard -8.5
84.1%
1.64
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Howard -7
87.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
Howard -6.5
88.0%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Howard -6
89.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Howard -5.5
89.6%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Howard over 81
73.2%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Howard over 77.5
82.9%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
Howard -5
91.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Howard -4.5
91.1%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Howard over 78.5
80.2%
1.55
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Howard -3.5
92.5%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Howard -4
92.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Howard over 75.5
87.5%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Howard (regulation)
94.6%
1.19
Betano
1.19
Marathon Bet
1.18
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Howard over 76.5
85.4%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Howard -3
93.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Howard -2.5
93.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Howard over 74.5
89.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Howard win
95.4%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Marathon Bet
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
+13.3pp
Won
Howard over 72.5
92.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Stetson under 76.5
82.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Stetson under 74.5
77.4%
1.41
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Howard over 71.5
94.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Stetson under 72.5
71.0%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Stetson under 73.5
74.3%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Stetson under 75.5
80.2%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Howard +4.5
97.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Stetson under 78.5
87.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Howard over 70.5
95.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Stetson under 80.5
90.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Howard over 68.5
96.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Howard over 66.5
97.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Howard +9.5
99.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Over 143.5
74.0%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Stetson under 81.5
92.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Howard over 64.5
98.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.9%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Stetson under 82.5
93.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Stetson under 84.5
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Stetson under 86.5
97.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Howard over 62.5
99.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Stetson under 88.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 144.5
72.0%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Over 127.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 132.5
90.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Over 145
71.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Under 177.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 142.5
76.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Over 137.5
84.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Howard under 101.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Howard under 100.5
91.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Under 172.5
87.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Stetson over 54.5
89.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Howard under 98.5
88.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 167.5
80.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
70.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Stetson over 56.5
85.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Howard under 96.5
83.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Stetson over 58.5
80.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Stetson +30.5
82.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Howard under 94.5
78.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Stetson over 60.5
74.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Stetson over 61.5
70.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Howard under 92.5
71.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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