PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Indiana faces Arkansas on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Hoosiers and expecting a decisive win. Indiana is 3-0 overall, averaging 88.7 points and allowing 68.7, and remains undefeated at home with the same 3-0 mark; their last five games include victories over Syracuse 83-80, Bellarmine 92-69 and Eastern Illinois 91-57. Arkansas is 2-1 overall, scoring 84.7 and conceding 68.3, and on the road they are 0-1, 72.0 points for and 91.0 against; their last five games contain a win over Robert Morris 76-53, a loss to Virginia 72-91 and a win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff 106-61. The teams have split their two meetings, most recently Arkansas winning 71-64 on 29 December 2019. Pythia assigns a 73% chance to Indiana and 27% to Arkansas, projecting a 85-78 score and a total of 162.7 points; the model also estimates a 4% chance of overtime. The final game will hinge on Indiana's ability to maintain its 88.7-point offensive output against Arkansas's 84.7-point attack.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 89.0 | 68.0 | 157.0 | +21.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (4) | 89.0 | 68.0 | 157.0 | +21.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.8 | 72.6 | 149.4 | +4.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.4 | 69.2 | 152.6 | +14.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 67.2 | 80.6 | 147.9 | -13.4 | 12% |
| vs Similar (8) | 78.1 | 78.9 | 157.0 | -0.8 | 62% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (14) | 83.4 | 66.0 | 149.4 | +17.4 | 71% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 83.2 | 67.8 | 151.0 | +15.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 87.0 | 60.0 | 147.0 | +27.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 72.0 | 91.0 | 163.0 | -19.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.3 | 79.0 | 166.3 | +8.3 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.2 | 76.0 | 160.2 | +8.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 83.2 | 98.6 | 181.8 | -15.4 | 20% |
| vs Similar (12) | 89.8 | 81.8 | 171.6 | +8.1 | 75% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 91.3 | 76.2 | 167.5 | +15.2 | 92% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.7 | 33.8 | 72.5 | +4.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 42.6 | 31.2 | 73.7 | +11.4 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 33.0 | 37.8 | 70.8 | -4.8 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.0 | 36.2 | 75.2 | +2.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.2 | 32.0 | 73.2 | +9.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 33.0 | 38.5 | 71.5 | -5.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 37.2 | 35.5 | 72.8 | +1.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (14) | 42.9 | 30.1 | 73.0 | +12.7 | 86% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.5 | 38.1 | 79.7 | +3.4 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 42.6 | 35.6 | 78.2 | +6.9 | 79% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 39.7 | 42.5 | 82.2 | -2.7 | 45% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.1 | 37.7 | 78.8 | +3.4 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 37.0 | 76.8 | +2.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 37.6 | 48.8 | 86.4 | -11.2 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 43.2 | 38.0 | 81.2 | +5.2 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 41.5 | 34.2 | 75.6 | +7.3 | 85% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 29/12/19 | Indiana v Arkansas | 64-71 |
| 23/03/19 | Indiana v Arkansas | 63-60 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Tennessee Tech | 90-66 |
| 09/11/26 | H | Syracuse | 83-80 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Bellarmine | 92-69 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 91-57 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Northwestern | 61-74 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Ohio State | 78-91 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Minnesota | 77-47 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Michigan State | 64-77 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Northwestern | 68-72 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Purdue | 64-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Central Arkansas | 79-66 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Robert Morris | 76-53 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Virginia | 72-91 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 106-61 |
| 27/03/26 | A | Arizona | 88-109 |
| 22/03/26 | H | High Point | 94-88 |
| 19/03/26 | H | Hawaii | 97-78 |
| 15/03/26 | H | Vanderbilt | 86-75 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Ole Miss | 93-90 OT |
| 14/03/26 | H | Oklahoma | 82-79 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 89.0 | 89.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 68.0 | 68.0 | - |
| Point differential | +21.0 | +21.0 | - |
| Avg total | 157.0 | 157.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 75% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 83.2 | 87.0 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.8 | 60.0 | 91.0 |
| Point differential | +15.5 | +27.0 | -19.0 |
| Avg total | 151.0 | 147.0 | 163.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 3 |  Rutgers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 56.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 6 | Indiana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Minnesota | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 58.5 | +20.2 |
| 9 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 11 |  Illinois | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 104.5 | 71.2 | +33.2 |
| 12 |  Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 |
| 13 |  Northwestern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 70.8 | 61.8 | +9.0 |
| 14 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Penn State | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.6 | 75.6 | +2.0 |
| 17 |  Ohio State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 79.2 | +1.8 |
| 18 |  Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 80.0 | +4.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 3 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 4 |  LSU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.8 | 59.5 | +31.2 |
| 5 |  Vanderbilt | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 |
| 6 |  South Carolina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 56.5 | +22.2 |
| 7 |  Alabama | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 76.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Florida | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 |
| 9 |  Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 |
| 11 |  Mississippi St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 67.5 | +19.8 |
| 12 | Arkansas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 67.8 | +15.5 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.8 | 63.8 | +12.0 |
| 14 |  Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 |
| 15 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 16 |  Auburn | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.7 | 64.0 | +14.7 |
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