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Iowa vs UMBC Retrievers Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 25 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 81-62
Projected total 143.4
Scheduled
Position#151
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game64.7
Vs
95%
■ IOWA 95%■ UMBC 5%
Pythia win probability
Position#261
Record2-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game70.4
Allowed / game73.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Iowa v UMBC Retrievers
24 Nov 2026
IOWA v UMBC
upcoming
20 Dec 2023
IOWA103
UMBC81
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Iowa host UMBC Retrievers in the NCAA. Pythia makes Iowa the favourite at 95% and projects 81-62, about 143 points in all. Overtime chance: 1%. Iowa are 2-1 this season (85.0 scored, 64.7 allowed a game), form WLWWL; UMBC Retrievers are 2-3 this season (70.4 scored, 73.8 allowed a game), form LLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iowa win
94.7%fair 1.06
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
UMBC Retrievers win
5.3%fair 18.76
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

IowaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
75-84 OT
75
84
-9
A08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
75-64
75
64
+11
H11/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
69-72
69
72
-3
A12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-61
67
61
+6
A20/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
73-72
73
72
+1
A22/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A26/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
59-71
59
71
-12
A28/03
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
W
76-54
76
54
+22
H04/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#323
W
91-47
91
47
+44
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
88-93 OT
88
93
-5
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-30
44-40
25-26
50-38
30-34
39-38
32-25
35-36
33-31
40-41
43-46
34-25
32-28
27-43
38-29
38-25
41-20
50-27
40-41
39-38
143.9Avg total
75.0Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.064.7149.7+20.367%
Season at home (3)85.064.7149.7+20.367%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.068.9143.9+6.160%
Last 5 (5)78.267.2145.4+11.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)67.272.2139.5-5.025%
vs Similar (12)71.270.8142.0+0.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)79.162.8141.9+16.479%
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
91-52
91
52
+39
A03/03
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H07/03
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
91-69
91
69
+22
H10/03
NCAA
Vermont
#85
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H14/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A17/03
NCAA
George Mason
#65
L
54-82
54
82
-28
A02/11
NCAA
Marist
#306
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A06/11
NCAA
McDaniel
#417
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H09/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#83
W
85-70
85
70
+15
H12/11
NCAA
Towson
#175
L
42-68
42
68
-26
A15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
46-24
45-28
34-30
50-39
43-29
48-40
30-28
44-31
41-49
42-37
27-33
27-49
33-38
47-50
51-25
40-36
42-39
43-31
19-36
23-32
147.9Avg total
77.5Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)70.473.8144.2-3.440%
Season at home (2)88.065.5153.5+22.5100%
Season away (3)58.779.3138.0-20.70%
Last 10 (10)77.570.4147.9+7.160%
Last 5 (5)70.473.8144.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)60.373.3133.7-13.033%
vs Similar (3)77.389.3166.7-12.00%
vs Weaker (23)77.264.5141.7+12.783%
This opponent (Iowa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141
Over 141
55.8%
Under 141
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
43.2%
Under 146
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
31.2%
Under 151
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Iowa total 75.5
Over 75.5
71.6%
Under 75.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iowa total 79.5
Over 79.5
56.6%
Under 79.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iowa total 83.5
Over 83.5
40.5%
Under 83.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMBC Retrievers total 62.5
Over 62.5
48.6%
Under 62.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMBC Retrievers total 66.5
Over 66.5
33.2%
Under 66.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMBC Retrievers total 70.5
Over 70.5
20.3%
Under 70.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Iowa -3
IOWA -3
92.4%
UMBC +3
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
No market prices yet.
UMBC
No market prices yet.
Spread Iowa 0
IOWA 0
94.7%
UMBC 0
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
No market prices yet.
UMBC
No market prices yet.
Spread Iowa +3
IOWA +3
96.6%
UMBC -3
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
No market prices yet.
UMBC
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: +3.5+3.52nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +3.6+3.6
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: +3.5+3.52nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +3.6+3.6
IowaUMBC Retrievers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
IowaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
25-26
25
26
-1
H11/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
32-25
32
25
+7
A20/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A22/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A26/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
32-28
32
28
+4
A28/03
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H04/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#323
W
41-20
41
20
+21
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H11/11
NCAA
65.0Avg total
34.0Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.030.465.5+4.660%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.827.863.5+8.062%-
Last 30 away (14)34.233.567.7+0.757%-
Last 10 (10)34.031.065.0+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)38.832.871.6+6.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)29.831.060.8-1.250%-
vs Similar (12)34.932.066.9+2.958%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)36.628.965.6+7.764%-
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
46-24
46
24
+22
A03/03
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H07/03
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H10/03
NCAA
Vermont
#85
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H14/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A17/03
NCAA
George Mason
#65
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A02/11
NCAA
Marist
#306
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A06/11
NCAA
McDaniel
#417
W
51-25
51
25
+26
H09/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#83
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H12/11
NCAA
Towson
#175
L
19-36
19
36
-17
A15/11
NCAA
69.7Avg total
36.6Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.731.667.3+4.160%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.930.868.7+7.180%-
Last 30 away (15)33.432.465.8+1.040%-
Last 10 (10)36.633.169.7+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)34.434.268.6+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)29.336.065.3-6.733%-
vs Similar (3)34.344.078.3-9.70%-
vs Weaker (23)36.029.765.7+6.370%-
This opponent (Iowa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Iowa wins
0
UMBC Retrievers wins
DateGameScore
21/12/23Iowa v UMBC Retrievers103-81
Iowalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HVirginia Tech88-93 OT
07/11/26HEastern Illinois91-47
04/11/26HLipscomb76-54
28/03/26AIllinois59-71
26/03/26ANebraska77-71
22/03/26AFlorida73-72
20/03/26AClemson67-61
12/03/26AOhio State69-72
11/03/26HMaryland75-64
08/03/26ANebraska75-84 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ATowson42-68
12/11/26HMorgan State85-70
09/11/26HMcDaniel91-61
06/11/26AMarist80-88
02/11/26AGeorge Mason54-82
17/03/26AHoward83-86
14/03/26HVermont74-59
10/03/26HUMass Lowell91-69
07/03/26HNew Hampshire Wildcats84-69
03/03/26ANJIT91-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Iowa
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game85.085.0-
Allowed / game64.764.7-
Point differential+20.3+20.3-
Avg total149.7149.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %33%33%-
UMBC Retrievers
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL40%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%100%0%
Points / game70.488.058.7
Allowed / game73.865.579.3
Point differential-3.4+22.5-20.7
Avg total144.2153.5138.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass Lowell43175%79.262.8+16.5
2 Binghamton53260%67.667.4+0.2
3 Vermont42250%78.565.2+13.2
4 UMBC Retrievers52340%70.473.8-3.4
5 Maine Black Bears51420%64.272.0-7.8
6 Bryant University51420%60.271.8-11.6
7 NJIT61517%55.777.3-21.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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