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Italy vs Cyprus Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 04 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 15:15
Final 89-54
24-6 16-13 27-24 22-11
Position#7
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game69.8
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#24
Record0-4
FormLLLLL
Points / game60.2
Allowed / game92.8
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· Spyros Kyprianou Arena
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cyprus winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Turkey
#20
W
87-80
87
80
+7
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
83-62
83
62
+21
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
95-71
95
71
+24
90avg 71
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
74-81
74
81
-7
62avg 71
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
80-67
80
67
+13
75avg 71
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
67-71
67
71
-4
60avg 71
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
66-75
66
75
-9
54avg 71
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
W
78-62
78
62
+16
74avg 71
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
96-79
96
79
+17
97avg 71
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
W
67-63
67
63
+4
58avg 71
H02/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-24
26-15
18-17
19-24
17-15
19-22
28-9
19-16
27-12
22-13
16-29
30-17
9-22
20-10
27-26
18-23
17-12
31-19
12-19
20-17
10-13
17-19
23-10
17-29
12-22
20-14
13-20
21-19
18-10
14-22
21-15
25-15
22-21
22-19
28-21
24-18
10-18
20-18
19-11
18-16
150.4Avg total
79.3Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)76.869.8146.5+7.075%
Season at home (2)72.562.5135.0+10.0100%
Season away (2)81.077.0158.0+4.050%
Last 10 (10)79.371.1150.4+8.270%
Last 5 (5)74.870.0144.8+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.878.7160.5+3.267%
vs Similar (14)81.580.3161.8+1.257%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)83.369.1152.4+14.280%
This opponent (Cyprus) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCyprus
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#17
L
66-99
66
99
-33
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
63-92
63
92
-29
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
France
#3
L
59-75
59
75
-16
53avg 50
H21/11
EuroBasket
France
#3
L
70-85
70
85
-15
66avg 50
A24/11
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#17
L
62-108
62
108
-46
44avg 50
A21/02
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
67-104
67
104
-37
55avg 50
H24/02
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
L
64-91
64
91
-27
48avg 50
A28/08
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
69-96
69
96
-27
61avg 50
H30/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
47-91
47
91
-44
34avg 50
A31/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
L
61-93
61
93
-32
48avg 50
H02/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-28
11-23
18-26
10-22
8-22
16-26
26-22
13-22
15-20
16-17
19-14
9-24
14-28
20-19
24-21
12-17
14-28
15-25
21-29
12-26
14-26
11-22
18-26
24-30
13-23
13-24
23-11
15-33
13-22
18-21
16-26
22-27
9-19
8-22
12-29
18-21
13-15
13-27
15-26
20-25
156.2Avg total
62.8Scored
93.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)60.292.8153.0-32.50%
Season at home (2)65.094.5159.5-29.50%
Season away (2)55.591.0146.5-35.50%
Last 10 (10)62.893.4156.2-30.60%
Last 5 (5)61.695.0156.6-33.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)62.884.3147.0-21.57%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -9.1-9.1Q2Q2: +4.0+4.0Q2: -8.5-8.5Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -9.2-9.2
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -9.1-9.1Q2Q2: +4.0+4.0Q2: -8.5-8.5Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -9.2-9.2
ItalyCyprus
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Turkey
#20
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H02/09
EuroBasket
71.7Avg total
37.7Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.937.777.6+2.250%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.736.975.6+1.843%-
Last 30 away (16)40.938.479.4+2.556%-
Last 10 (10)37.734.071.7+3.740%-
Last 5 (5)33.035.268.2-2.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.340.780.0-1.333%-
vs Similar (14)39.139.378.4-0.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)41.433.875.2+7.660%-
This opponent (Cyprus) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CyprusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#17
L
38-51
38
51
-13
H23/02
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
24-48
24
48
-24
A26/02
EuroBasket
France
#3
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H21/11
EuroBasket
France
#3
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A24/11
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#17
L
29-53
29
53
-24
A21/02
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
25-48
25
48
-23
H24/02
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
L
26-47
26
47
-21
A28/08
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H30/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
17-41
17
41
-24
A31/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H02/09
EuroBasket
73.8Avg total
28.1Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)29.442.872.2-13.410%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.741.372.1-10.613%-
Last 30 away (15)28.144.372.4-16.37%-
Last 10 (10)28.145.773.8-17.60%-
Last 5 (5)25.044.269.2-19.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)29.442.872.2-13.410%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.817.9
50.0%
52.4%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.79.6
36.0%
33.4%28.8
🏀 Free throws18.913.7
72.5%
73.1%13.7
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cyprustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cyprus: 62.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.5 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.615.4
45.8%
52.4%30.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.87.9
27.4%
33.4%23.7
🏀 Free throws10.37.5
72.8%
73.1%7.5
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
WWWLLWLWWW
Cyprus
LLLLLLLLLL
#7
League position
#24
+11.5
Net rating
-41.1
109.8
Offensive rating
84.4
98.3
Defensive rating
125.5
51.7%
Effective FG%
43.7%
49.1%
Opp. effective FG%
56.8%
16.4%
Turnover %
20.6%
31.5%
Off. rebound %
23.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.17
36.0%
3-point %
27.4%
72.0%
Assist %
54.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence109.8 · 84.4Defence98.3 · 125.5Shooting51.7% · 43.7%3-point %36.0% · 27.4%Ball care16.4% · 20.6%Off. rebounds31.5% · 23.4%Free throws0.30 · 0.17Form (last 10/10)70% · 0%
■ Italy   ■ Cyprus
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy wins
0
Cyprus wins
No previous meetings.
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/09/25HSpain67-63
31/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina96-79
30/08/25HGeorgia78-62
28/08/25AGreece66-75
23/02/25HHungary67-71
20/02/25ATurkey80-67
25/11/24HIceland74-81
22/11/24AIceland95-71
25/02/24AHungary83-62
22/02/24HTurkey87-80
Cypruslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/09/25HGeorgia61-93
31/08/25ASpain47-91
30/08/25HGreece69-96
28/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina64-91
24/02/25HCroatia67-104
21/02/25ABosnia & Herzegovina62-108
24/11/24AFrance70-85
21/11/24HFrance59-75
26/02/24ACroatia63-92
23/02/24HBosnia & Herzegovina66-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game76.872.581.0
Allowed / game69.862.577.0
Point differential+7.0+10.0+4.0
Avg total146.5135.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Cyprus
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game60.265.055.5
Allowed / game92.894.591.0
Point differential-32.5-29.5-35.5
Avg total153.0159.5146.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany550100%105.873.0+32.8
2 Turkey550100%91.871.8+20.0
3 France54180%92.278.2+14.0
4 Serbia54180%86.873.6+13.2
5 Lithuania54180%86.278.6+7.6
6 Greece43175%85.567.0+18.5
7 Italy43175%76.869.8+7.0
8 Poland43175%82.879.2+3.5
9 Latvia53260%82.476.8+5.6
10 Finland53260%85.281.2+4.0
11 Slovenia53260%93.890.4+3.4
12 Israel53260%83.480.2+3.2
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina53260%80.280.2+0.0
14 Spain42250%77.866.0+11.8
15 Georgia52340%73.477.2-3.8
16 Portugal52340%63.073.6-10.6
17 Belgium41325%73.283.5-10.2
18 Sweden51420%80.683.6-3.0
19 Estonia51420%70.479.4-9.0
20 Montenegro51420%75.691.0-15.4
21 Great Britain51420%70.896.8-26.0
22 Iceland5050%72.687.8-15.2
23 Czech Republic5050%67.686.8-19.2
24 Cyprus4040%60.292.8-32.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2416272289
Cyprus613241154
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