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Greece vs Italy Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 28 Aug 2025
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 75-66
22-12 14-20 20-13 19-21
Position#3
Record-
FormWLWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Greece 🏆
vs
Italy
Position#7
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeEuroBasketRound 1· Spyros Kyprianou Arena
Other2025
Meetings · Greece v Italy
28 Aug 2025
GREE75
ITAL66
03 Sep 2022
GREE85
ITAL81
24 Aug 2017
GREE73
ITAL70
29 Aug 2013
GREE79
ITAL65
25 Aug 2011
GREE81
ITAL82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Greece winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGreece
Date
Competition
Jordan
#37
W
92-71
92
71
+21
no box
A26/08
World Cup
New Zealand
#11
W
83-74
83
74
+9
no box
H30/08
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
67-92
67
92
-25
no box
A01/09
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
L
69-73
69
73
-4
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Czech Republic
#33
W
72-64
72
64
+8
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Netherlands
#37
W
74-72
74
72
+2
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#12
L
72-73
72
73
-1
65avg 62
A21/11
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#12
W
77-67
77
67
+10
70avg 62
H24/11
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#33
W
93-89 OT
93
89
+4
85avg 62
A21/02
EuroBasket
Netherlands
#37
W
63-53
63
53
+10
56avg 62
H24/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-14
27-19
20-27
26-11
15-20
17-23
18-11
33-20
20-20
23-19
15-25
9-28
14-19
16-17
12-14
27-23
12-15
20-16
21-19
19-14
16-12
16-27
30-19
12-14
26-16
15-17
10-18
21-22
17-15
23-17
17-18
20-17
27-13
10-27
23-14
17-23
18-18
16-5
14-16
15-14
149.0Avg total
76.2Scored
72.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.272.8149.0+3.470%
Last 5 (5)75.870.8146.6+5.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)76.481.7158.1-5.343%
vs Similar ◀ (14)81.276.6157.8+4.671%
vs Weaker (9)82.373.4155.8+8.989%
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Serbia
#13
W
78-76
78
76
+2
no box
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
73-57
73
57
+16
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
85-89
85
89
-4
no box
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
87-80
87
80
+7
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
83-62
83
62
+21
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
95-71
95
71
+24
90avg 72
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
74-81
74
81
-7
62avg 72
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
80-67
80
67
+13
75avg 72
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
67-71
67
71
-4
60avg 72
H23/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
17-23
19-20
19-14
25-15
14-21
12-11
22-10
26-18
16-28
18-21
22-20
18-15
23-27
19-28
25-19
24-24
26-15
18-17
19-24
17-15
19-22
28-9
19-16
27-12
22-13
16-29
30-17
9-22
20-10
27-26
18-23
17-12
31-19
12-19
20-17
10-13
17-19
23-10
17-29
154.5Avg total
80.4Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.474.1154.5+6.360%
Last 5 (5)79.870.4150.2+9.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)82.480.3162.7+2.157%
vs Similar ◀ (13)84.882.5167.4+2.362%
vs Weaker (10)84.771.1155.8+13.680%
This opponent (Greece) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +2.2+2.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +2.2+2.2
GreeceItaly
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GreeceLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jordan
#37
W
46-33
46
33
+13
A26/08
World Cup
New Zealand
#11
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H30/08
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A01/09
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H03/09
World Cup
Czech Republic
#33
W
32-31
32
31
+1
H23/02
EuroBasket
Netherlands
#37
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A26/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#12
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A21/11
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#12
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H24/11
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#33
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A21/02
EuroBasket
Netherlands
#37
W
34-23
34
23
+11
H24/02
EuroBasket
71.6Avg total
36.7Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.137.476.5+1.757%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.136.073.1+1.157%-
Last 30 away (16)40.938.679.5+2.256%-
Last 10 (10)36.734.971.6+1.860%-
Last 5 (5)36.833.470.2+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)35.338.774.0-3.429%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.137.478.5+3.864%-
vs Weaker (9)38.936.475.3+2.467%-
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Serbia
#13
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H23/02
EuroBasket
76.3Avg total
40.1Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.338.580.8+3.760%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.338.380.6+4.160%-
Last 30 away (15)42.238.881.0+3.460%-
Last 10 (10)40.136.276.3+3.940%-
Last 5 (5)37.831.469.2+6.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.341.182.4+0.143%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)41.440.281.6+1.262%-
vs Weaker (10)44.134.578.6+9.670%-
This opponent (Greece) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Greecetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Greece: 74.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.017.0
47.2%
52.4%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.3
29.1%
33.4%25.0
🏀 Free throws20.015.2
75.8%
73.1%15.2
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.3 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.719.7
52.2%
52.4%39.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.09.8
37.8%
33.4%29.5
🏀 Free throws16.011.2
69.8%
73.1%11.2
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/6 games with a box score before 28 Aug 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Greece
WWWLWWLLWW
Italy
LWLWWWLLWW
#3
League position
#7
+7.4
Net rating
+12.7
99.1
Offensive rating
113.0
91.8
Defensive rating
100.3
45.6%
Effective FG%
54.1%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.0%
18.4%
Turnover %
16.5%
32.2%
Off. rebound %
32.4%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.25
29.1%
3-point %
37.8%
69.7%
Assist %
68.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 113.0Defence91.8 · 100.3Shooting45.6% · 54.1%3-point %29.1% · 37.8%Ball care18.4% · 16.5%Off. rebounds32.2% · 32.4%Free throws0.31 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Greece   ■ Italy
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Greece wins
1
Italy wins
DateGameScore
03/09/22Greece v Italy85-81
24/08/17Greece v Italy73-70 OT
29/08/13Greece v Italy79-65
25/08/11Greece v Italy81-82 OT
Greecelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/25HNetherlands63-53
21/02/25ACzech Republic93-89 OT
24/11/24HGreat Britain77-67
21/11/24AGreat Britain72-73
26/02/24ANetherlands74-72
23/02/24HCzech Republic72-64
03/09/23HMontenegro69-73
01/09/23ALithuania67-92
30/08/23HNew Zealand83-74
26/08/23AJordan92-71
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/25HHungary67-71
20/02/25ATurkey80-67
25/11/24HIceland74-81
22/11/24AIceland95-71
25/02/24AHungary83-62
22/02/24HTurkey87-80
09/09/23HSlovenia85-89
07/09/23HLatvia82-87
03/09/23HPuerto Rico73-57
01/09/23ASerbia78-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Greece
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Italy
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia110100%98.064.0+34.0
2 Germany110100%106.076.0+30.0
3 France110100%92.064.0+28.0
4 Bosnia & Herzegovina110100%91.064.0+27.0
5 Lithuania110100%94.070.0+24.0
6 Turkey110100%93.073.0+20.0
7 Georgia110100%83.069.0+14.0
8 Israel110100%83.071.0+12.0
9 Portugal110100%62.050.0+12.0
10 Finland110100%93.090.0+3.0
11 Sweden1010%90.093.0-3.0
12 Czech Republic1010%50.062.0-12.0
13 Iceland1010%71.083.0-12.0
14 Spain1010%69.083.0-14.0
15 Latvia1010%73.093.0-20.0
16 Great Britain1010%70.094.0-24.0
17 Cyprus1010%64.091.0-27.0
18 Belgium1010%64.092.0-28.0
19 Montenegro1010%76.0106.0-30.0
20 Estonia1010%64.098.0-34.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Greece2214201975
Italy1220132166
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