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Kansas State vs TCU Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 68-77
0-0 38-41 0-0 30-36
Position#292
Record11-17
FormLLWLL
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game81.1
Kansas State
USA
vs
TCU 🏆
USA
Position#77
Record18-10
FormWWLWW
Points / game78.3
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Kansas State v TCU
16 Jan 2027
KANS v TCU
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
KANS68
TCU77
17 Feb 2024
KANS72
TCU75
09 Mar 2023
KANS67
TCU80
07 Feb 2023
KANS82
TCU61
12 Jan 2022
KANS57
TCU60
02 Jan 2021
KANS60
TCU67
07 Jan 2020
KANS57
TCU59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
TCU winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Kansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Utes
#333
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H21/01
NCAA
Kansas
#58
L
62-86
62
86
-24
H25/01
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
54-59
54
59
-5
A28/01
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
61-95
61
95
-34
H01/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
82-84
82
84
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
62-91
62
91
-29
H12/02
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
64-78
64
78
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
72-100
72
100
-28
A21/02
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
46-43
0-0
35-35
0-0
35-37
0-0
27-49
0-0
22-28
0-0
32-31
0-0
21-50
0-0
40-45
0-0
46-42
0-0
36-42
0-0
31-53
0-0
31-38
0-0
19-33
0-0
45-45
0-0
41-34
0-0
49-40
0-0
35-49
0-0
37-51
0-0
33-42
0-0
37-37
152.2Avg total
69.8Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)79.981.1161.0-1.239%
Season at home (17)83.279.4162.6+3.859%
Season away (11)74.783.6158.4-8.99%
Last 10 (10)69.882.4152.2-12.620%
Last 5 (5)71.684.4156.0-12.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)71.984.1156.1-12.217%
vs Similar (10)86.775.8162.5+10.970%
vs Weaker (2)101.067.0168.0+34.0100%
This opponent (TCU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TCUUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma State
#140
W
68-65
68
65
+3
H21/01
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
97-90
97
90
+7
A24/01
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H29/01
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
61-87
61
87
-26
A01/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
84-82
84
82
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
62-55
62
55
+7
H11/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
95-92 OT
95
92
+3
A14/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
71-82
71
82
-11
A18/02
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
90-78
90
78
+12
H25/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
37-41
0-0
31-24
0-0
38-38
0-0
59-52
0-0
30-43
0-0
40-36
0-0
25-38
0-0
36-49
0-0
42-46
0-0
42-36
0-0
29-30
0-0
33-25
0-0
39-34
0-0
45-50
0-0
28-42
0-0
43-40
0-0
30-25
0-0
30-29
0-0
33-30
0-0
57-48
152.2Avg total
75.8Scored
76.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)78.372.0150.3+6.364%
Season at home (19)77.466.7144.2+10.774%
Season away (9)80.283.1163.3-2.944%
Last 10 (10)75.876.4152.2-0.670%
Last 5 (5)75.672.2147.8+3.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)70.473.4143.8-3.040%
vs Similar (12)74.374.1148.4+0.258%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)82.569.6152.1+12.869%
This opponent (Kansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -8.2-8.2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -4.4-4.4Q4: +2.7+2.7
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -8.2-8.2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -4.4-4.4Q4: +2.7+2.7
Kansas StateTCU
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Kansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Utes
#333
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H21/01
NCAA
Kansas
#58
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H25/01
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
22-28
22
28
-6
A28/01
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
21-50
21
50
-29
H01/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A07/02
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
31-53
31
53
-22
H12/02
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
19-33
19
33
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H18/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A21/02
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A26/02
NCAA
74.0Avg total
32.9Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.438.876.3-1.443%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.737.777.3+2.056%-
Last 30 away (12)34.140.674.7-6.525%-
Last 10 (10)32.941.174.0-8.230%-
Last 5 (5)31.842.274.0-10.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)32.941.274.1-8.222%-
vs Similar (10)42.936.779.6+6.270%-
vs Weaker (2)50.528.579.0+22.0100%-
This opponent (TCU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TCULast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma State
#140
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H21/01
NCAA
Baylor
#200
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A24/01
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H29/01
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A01/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/02
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H11/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A14/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A18/02
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H25/02
NCAA
69.8Avg total
33.1Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.235.170.3+0.147%-
Last 30 at home (20)36.233.769.9+2.560%-
Last 30 away (10)33.337.971.2-4.620%-
Last 10 (10)33.136.769.8-3.630%-
Last 5 (5)31.832.264.0-0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.038.670.6-6.620%-
vs Similar (12)33.634.267.8-0.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)38.034.572.5+3.554%-
This opponent (Kansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Kansas State wins
6
TCU wins
DateGameScore
07/02/26TCU v Kansas State84-82
04/01/25TCU v Kansas State63-62
17/02/24Kansas State v TCU72-75
10/03/23Kansas State v TCU67-80
08/02/23Kansas State v TCU82-61
14/01/23TCU v Kansas State82-68
06/02/22TCU v Kansas State63-75
13/01/22Kansas State v TCU57-60
10/03/21TCU v Kansas State50-71
20/02/21TCU v Kansas State54-62
Kansas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26AColorado70-79
21/02/26ATexas Tech72-100
18/02/26HBaylor90-74
14/02/26AHouston64-78
12/02/26HCincinnati62-91
07/02/26ATCU82-84
01/02/26HIowa State61-95
28/01/26AWest Virginia54-59
25/01/26HKansas62-86
21/01/26HUtah Utes81-78
TCUlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HArizona State90-78
21/02/26HWest Virginia60-54
18/02/26AUCF Knights71-82
14/02/26AOklahoma State95-92 OT
11/02/26HIowa State62-55
07/02/26HKansas State84-82
01/02/26AColorado61-87
29/01/26HHouston70-79
24/01/26ABaylor97-90
21/01/26HOklahoma State68-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL39%
HomeWLLLW59%
AwayLLLLL9%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %39%59%9%
Points / game79.983.274.7
Allowed / game81.179.483.6
Point differential-1.2+3.8-8.9
Avg total161.0162.6158.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%35%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)100% (3)0% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
TCU
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW64%
HomeLWWWW74%
AwayLWLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games28199
Win %64%74%44%
Points / game78.377.480.2
Allowed / game72.066.783.1
Point differential+6.3+10.7-2.9
Avg total150.3144.2163.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%42%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)50% (6)50% (4)
Overtime %11%5%22%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arizona2927293%87.168.6+18.4
2 Houston2924583%77.562.3+15.2
3 Iowa State2923679%81.966.1+15.9
4 Texas Tech2922776%82.072.2+9.8
5 UCF Knights2720774%82.077.4+4.6
6 Kansas2921872%76.168.7+7.4
7 Brigham Young2920969%85.075.3+9.7
8 TCU28181064%78.372.0+6.3
9 West Virginia29171259%69.964.7+5.1
10 Oklahoma State29171259%83.381.8+1.5
11 Cincinnati29161355%73.267.5+5.7
12 Colorado29161355%79.578.7+0.8
13 Arizona State29151452%77.978.2-0.3
14 Baylor28141450%82.576.7+5.8
15 Kansas State28111739%79.981.1-1.2
16 Utah Utes29101934%74.578.1-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Kansas State03803068
TCU04103677
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