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Liberty vs N. Carolina Central Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 83-61
Projected total 144.3
Final 74-66
40-34 34-32
Position#154
Record1-1
FormLWLLW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game63.0
Liberty 🏆
USA
Vs
97%
■ LIBE 97%■ N. C 3%
Pythia win probability
N. Carolina Central
USA
Position#357
Record0-3
FormWLLLL
Points / game62.7
Allowed / game74.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Liberty v N. Carolina Central
13 Nov 2026
LIBE74
N. C66
14 Nov 2022
LIBE79
N. C63
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Liberty hosts N. Carolina Central on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Liberty the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win because their season record of 1-1 is bolstered by an 85.0 points per game average and a 63.0 points allowed per game, while N. Carolina Central struggles at 0-3 with 62.7 points scored and 74.3 allowed. Liberty's single home game was a 113-54 victory over Boyce, and they have won 2 of their last 5, whereas N. Carolina Central has won only 1 of 5, with recent losses to VMI, Longwood and Georgia. In the only meeting between the two, Liberty won 79-63 on 14 November 2022. Pythia projects a 83-61 score, giving Liberty a 97% win probability and a 64% chance to cover the -17.5 spread, while the over on the 137.5 line has a 66% probability; the game has a 1% chance of overtime. The projected total of 144.3 points sits comfortably above the 137.5 line, and Liberty's dominant home performance suggests they will finish the game with a decisive margin.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Liberty winWon
96.5%fair 1.04
Best odds1.06
Implied90.4%
Edge+6.1pp
N. Carolina Central winLost
3.5%fair 28.92
Best odds15.00
Implied9.6%
Edge-6.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LibertyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTEP
#307
W
73-64
73
64
+9
A14/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
90-89 OT
90
89
+1
H19/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
73-94
73
94
-21
H21/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
65-74
65
74
-9
A27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H07/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H11/03
NCAA
High Point
#61
L
57-72
57
72
-15
A02/11
NCAA
Boyce
#514
W
113-54
113
54
+59
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
28-26
45-38
41-40
39-40
37-48
36-46
29-32
36-42
27-34
54-44
40-45
31-31
41-31
38-41
37-33
32-44
34-37
23-35
51-19
62-35
152.1Avg total
77.1Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)85.063.0148.0+22.050%
Season at home (1)113.054.0167.0+59.0100%
Season away (1)57.072.0129.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)77.175.0152.1+2.150%
Last 5 (5)77.870.2148.0+7.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (13)70.672.1142.7-1.562%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)79.171.4150.5+7.881%
This opponent (N. Carolina Central) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
N. Carolina CentralUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Howard
#55
L
67-100
67
100
-33
A21/02
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
74-60
74
60
+14
A28/02
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
77-73
77
73
+4
A03/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
L
64-80
64
80
-16
H05/03
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
83-76 OT
83
76
+7
H13/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
59-53
59
53
+6
H14/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
63-70
63
70
-7
A14/03
NCAA
Georgia
#70
L
62-78
62
78
-16
A03/11
NCAA
Longwood
#174
L
75-80 OT
75
80
-5
A07/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
L
51-65
51
65
-14
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-42
41-58
27-33
47-27
23-30
54-43
26-37
38-43
34-40
40-34
32-21
27-32
23-26
40-44
28-41
34-37
27-35
41-33
22-32
29-33
141.0Avg total
67.5Scored
73.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)62.774.3137.0-11.70%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)62.774.3137.0-11.70%
Last 10 (10)67.573.5141.0-6.040%
Last 5 (5)62.069.2131.2-7.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)65.278.3143.5-13.28%
vs Similar (7)73.675.0148.6-1.471%
vs Weaker (10)81.366.6147.9+14.770%
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 132.5Actual: Over 132.5
Over 132.5
76.7%
@ 1.50+15.2pp
Under 132.5
23.3%
@ 2.40-15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 137.5 · main lineActual: Over 137.5
Over 137.5
66.2%
@ 1.93+16.6pp
Under 137.5
33.8%
@ 1.95-16.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
54.3%
@ 2.52+17.7pp
Under 142.5
45.7%
@ 1.45-17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Liberty total 72.5Actual: Liberty over 72.5
Over 72.5
85.4%
@ 1.36+18.9pp
Under 72.5
14.6%
@ 2.70-18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.70
Liberty total 76.5 · main lineActual: Liberty under 76.5
Over 76.5
74.3%
@ 1.85+24.3pp
Under 76.5
25.7%
@ 1.90-24.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Liberty total 80.5Actual: Liberty under 80.5
Over 80.5
59.7%
@ 2.42+22.2pp
Under 80.5
40.3%
@ 1.45-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.45
N. Carolina Central total 54Actual: N. Carolina Central over 54
Over 54
77.6%
Under 54
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina Central total 58 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central over 58
Over 58
63.4%
@ 1.85+13.4pp
Under 58
36.6%
@ 1.85-13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
N. Carolina Central total 62Actual: N. Carolina Central over 62
Over 62
47.0%
Under 62
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Liberty -20.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +20.5
LIBE -20.5
53.7%
@ 2.35+2.8pp
N. C +20.5
46.3%
@ 1.90-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
LIBE
Betano
2.35
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
N. C
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.52
Spread Liberty -17.5 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central +17.5
LIBE -17.5
64.1%
@ 1.95+14.0pp
N. C +17.5
35.9%
@ 1.95-14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
LIBE
Betano
1.95
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.80
N. C
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.82
Spread Liberty -14.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +14.5
LIBE -14.5
73.4%
@ 1.70+15.8pp
N. C +14.5
26.6%
@ 2.18-15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
LIBE
Marathon Be
1.70
Betano
1.60
N. C
Betano
2.18

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: -6.9-6.92nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +0.7+0.7
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: -6.9-6.92nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +0.7+0.7
LibertyN. Carolina Central
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LibertyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTEP
#307
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A14/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H19/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H21/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H11/03
NCAA
High Point
#61
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A02/11
NCAA
Boyce
#514
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H07/11
NCAA
71.0Avg total
36.5Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65
Last 30 (30)37.032.869.8+4.263%67%
Last 30 at home (15)41.732.474.1+9.380%87%
Last 30 away (15)32.333.265.5-0.947%47%
Last 10 (10)36.534.571.0+2.050%70%
Last 5 (5)40.633.073.6+7.660%100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (13)33.334.868.1-1.538%54%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)39.132.171.2+7.181%75%
This opponent (N. Carolina Central) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
N. Carolina CentralLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Howard
#55
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A03/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
L
26-37
26
37
-11
H05/03
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H13/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
32-21
32
21
+11
H14/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
23-26
23
26
-3
A14/03
NCAA
Georgia
#70
L
28-41
28
41
-13
A03/11
NCAA
Longwood
#174
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A07/11
NCAA
VMI
#177
L
22-32
22
32
-10
A11/11
NCAA
60.5Avg total
26.8Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65
Last 30 (30)32.234.266.4-2.133%53%
Last 30 at home (14)37.930.968.8+6.964%57%
Last 30 away (16)27.237.164.3-9.96%50%
Last 10 (10)26.833.760.5-6.910%30%
Last 5 (5)26.431.057.4-4.620%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)27.837.265.1-9.48%54%
vs Similar (7)33.931.165.0+2.757%57%
vs Weaker (10)36.632.569.1+4.150%50%
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Liberty win
LIBE win
no forecast
@ 1.13
N. C win
no forecast
@ 6.10
1st half Spread Liberty -10.5 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central +10.5
LIBE -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
N. C +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 65 · main lineActual: Over 65
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Liberty 1st half total 36.5 · main lineActual: Liberty over 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
N. Carolina Central 1st half total 27 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central over 27
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 63.5Actual: Over 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Over 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Liberty -11.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +11.5
LIBE -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
N. C +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Liberty -9.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +9.5
LIBE -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
N. C +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Liberty -12.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +12.5
LIBE -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
N. C +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Liberty -8.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +8.5
LIBE -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
N. C +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 61.5Actual: Over 61.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.37
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Liberty -13.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +13.5
LIBE -13.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
N. C +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Liberty -7.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +7.5
LIBE -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
N. C +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Liberty (regulation)
LIBE
no forecast
@ 1.15
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
N. C
no forecast
@ 7.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
LIBE win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
N. C win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LIBE leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Liberty over 76.574.3%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.80		--+24.3ppLost
Liberty over 7773.4%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		--+23.4ppLost
Liberty over 75.577.4%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+21.6ppLost
Liberty over 77.570.9%1.86
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84		+20.9ppLost
Liberty over 74.580.3%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+20.7ppLost
Liberty over 73.583.0%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+20.0ppWon
Liberty -1572.6%1.76
Marathon Bet
1.76
1xBet
1.76		---+19.9ppLost
Liberty over 72.585.4%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+18.9ppWon
Liberty -15.570.5%1.75
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.71		--+17.7ppLost
Over 135.570.6%1.70
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.67		--+16.3ppWon
Liberty -13.576.2%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+15.8ppLost
Liberty -14.573.4%1.65
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.60		---+15.8ppLost
Over 134.572.7%1.63
Marathon Bet
1.64
Betano
1.62		---+15.7ppWon
Over 133.574.8%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+15.4ppWon
Liberty -12.578.8%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+15.3ppLost
Over 132.576.7%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+15.2ppWon
Liberty -11.581.2%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+14.8ppLost
Over 131.578.6%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+14.5ppWon
Liberty -9.585.5%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+14.4ppLost
Liberty -10.583.5%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+14.2ppLost
Over 130.580.4%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+13.8ppWon
Liberty over 70.589.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+13.4ppWon
Liberty (regulation)95.9%1.04
Betano
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03		--+8.1ppWon
Liberty win96.5%1.04
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
WilliamHill
1.03
Bet365
1.03		+6.1ppWon
N. Carolina Central over 55.572.0%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+4.9ppWon
N. Carolina Central over 54.575.3%1.29
Bet365
1.29		----+3.4ppWon
N. Carolina Central over 52.581.2%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+2.3ppWon
Over 13572.2%1.67
Marathon Bet
1.67		-----Won
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Liberty wins
0
N. Carolina Central wins
DateGameScore
15/11/22Liberty v N. Carolina Central79-63
Libertylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HBoyce113-54
02/11/26AHigh Point57-72
11/03/26HMissouri State69-77
07/03/26HSam Houston St.79-72
06/03/26HLouisiana Tech71-76
28/02/26AJacksonville State81-78
27/02/26AKennesaw State65-74
21/02/26HWestern Kentucky73-94
19/02/26HFlorida International90-89 OT
14/02/26AUTEP73-64
N. Carolina Centrallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AVMI51-65
07/11/26ALongwood75-80 OT
03/11/26AGeorgia62-78
14/03/26AHoward63-70
14/03/26HDelaware State59-53
13/03/26HMd.-East. Shore83-76 OT
05/03/26HSouth Carolina St64-80
03/03/26AMd.-East. Shore77-73
28/02/26ADelaware State74-60
21/02/26AHoward67-100

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Liberty
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game85.0113.057.0
Allowed / game63.054.072.0
Point differential+22.0+59.0-15.0
Avg total148.0167.0129.0
Over 137.550%100%0%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
N. Carolina Central
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
Home--
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %0%-0%
Points / game62.7-62.7
Allowed / game74.3-74.3
Point differential-11.7--11.7
Avg total137.0-137.0
Over 137.567%-67%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %33%-33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Louisiana Tech32167%70.360.7+9.7
6 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
7 Middle Tenn. St.32167%78.376.7+1.7
8 Liberty21150%85.063.0+22.0
9 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
10 Delaware31233%76.762.7+14.0
11 Jacksonville State31233%83.078.0+5.0
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-Eastern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Morgan State43175%85.265.5+19.8
2 South Carolina St43175%78.272.8+5.5
3 Howard42250%74.073.8+0.2
4 Norfolk State42250%69.872.8-3.0
5 Delaware State31233%74.767.0+7.7
6 Coppin State41325%62.266.2-4.0
7 Md.-East. Shore51420%58.670.0-11.4
8 N. Carolina Central3030%62.774.3-11.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Liberty403474
N. Carolina Central343266
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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