Marist hosts the UMBC Retrievers on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Marist as the favourite and forecasting a 68% chance of victory, a projected score of 73-68 and a total of 141.5 points. Marist enters the game with a 0-1 record, averaging 62.0 points scored and 69.0 allowed per contest, while UMBC also sits at 0-1, averaging 54.0 points scored and 82.0 allowed. In their last five outings Marist has won two and lost three, with a recent loss to Dartmouth 62-69 at home, whereas UMBC's recent five feature three wins and two losses, including a 74-59 home win over Vermont. Historically the two teams have met twice, Marist winning both times, most recently 76-73 on 21 December 2024. The Pythia spread places Marist at -2.5 with a 61% probability of covering, and the over line of 142.5 carries a 47% chance of exceeding, while the chance of overtime is 5%. The game will hinge on Marist's ability to outscore UMBC's defensive struggles.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marist winWon
68.1%fair 1.47
Best odds1.58
Implied64.2%
Edge+3.9pp
UMBC Retrievers winLost
31.9%fair 3.14
Best odds2.70
Implied35.8%
Edge-3.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Marist) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136.5Actual: Over 136.5
Over 136.5
61.4%
@ 1.76+7.4pp
Under 136.5
38.6%
@ 2.75-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Be
1.72
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.06
Over/Under 141.5 · main lineActual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
49.4%
@ 2.07-0.6pp
Under 141.5
50.6%
@ 2.00+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
37.5%
@ 2.72+1.1pp
Under 146.5
62.5%
@ 1.52-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Marist total 68.5Actual: Marist over 68.5
Over 68.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under 68.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
Marist total 73 · main lineActual: Marist over 73
Over 73
51.7%
@ 1.85+1.2pp
Under 73
48.3%
@ 1.88-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marist total 77Actual: Marist over 77
Over 77
35.6%
Under 77
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMBC Retrievers total 65Actual: UMBC Retrievers over 65
Over 65
61.8%
Under 65
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMBC Retrievers total 69 · main lineActual: UMBC Retrievers over 69
Over 69
45.9%
@ 1.85-4.5pp
Under 69
54.1%
@ 1.88+4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
UMBC Retrievers total 73Actual: UMBC Retrievers over 73
Over 73
30.7%
Under 73
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Marist -7.5Actual: Marist -7.5
MARI -7.5
42.7%
@ 2.60+4.8pp
UMBC +7.5
57.3%
@ 1.53-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MARI
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.30
UMBC
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.45
Spread Marist -4.5 · main lineActual: Marist -4.5
MARI -4.5
54.1%
@ 2.05+3.7pp
UMBC +4.5
45.9%
@ 1.93-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MARI
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
UMBC
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.68
Spread Marist -1.5Actual: Marist -1.5
MARI -1.5
65.5%
@ 1.68+8.3pp
UMBC +1.5
34.5%
@ 2.27-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MARI
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Be
1.66
Betano
1.55
UMBC
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.05
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MaristUMBC Retrievers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Marist +3
76.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Marist +2
73.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Marist +6.5
84.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Marist +5.5
81.9%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Marist +4
78.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Marist +5
81.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Marist +2.5
74.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Marist +11.5
92.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Marist +3.5
76.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Marist +16.5
96.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Marist +4.5
79.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Marist +1.5
70.6%
1.46
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Marist +21.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers under 74.5
73.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Over 131.5
72.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers under 75.5
76.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
Overtime: no
95.2%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+4.8pp
-
UMBC Retrievers under 79.5
86.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers +23.5
93.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers under 78.5
84.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers under 82.5
91.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Marist under 89.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers under 80.5
88.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Marist under 91.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers under 76.5
79.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.23
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
Marist under 87.5
91.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers over 53.5
92.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers +18.5
87.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Under 150
70.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Under 162.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers under 73.5
70.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers over 61.5
73.7%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Marist under 85.5
88.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers +12.5
73.8%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers over 55.5
89.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Under 150.5
71.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Marist under 82.5
81.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers +11.5
70.8%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers over 54.5
90.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 157.5
83.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Lost
Under 152.5
75.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers over 57.5
84.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Marist under 83.5
84.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
Over 132.5
70.3%
1.29
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers over 59.5
79.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers over 58.5
82.4%
1.10
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Marist under 81.5
78.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
Over 122.5
87.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers +13.5
76.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers over 56.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
UMBC Retrievers over 62.5
70.4%
1.25
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Marist under 79.5
72.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.23
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Lost
UMBC Retrievers over 60.5
76.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 127.5
80.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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